Mar
7, 2001 NBA
BASKETBALL Fan Contribution - - - - -
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Contenders,
Pretenders, and Season-enders of the Western Conference By
MATTHEW SEGEL
Note: InsideHoops will present our own conference reviews in the
near future. For now, check out a contributor's analysis of the West.
Here
you are, InsideHoops fans, my predictions. My list of contenders, pretenders
and seasonenders (also-rans) of the Western conference. I stayed with the
west for three reasons: better teams, better records, shorter story.
Let's
start with the playoff order. I see it going as follows. 1. Portland
2. San Antonio 3. Lakers. 4. Utah 5. Sacramento 6. Dallas 7. Minnesota
8. Phoenix.
Now
let's look at the contenders. First, let me clarify what I mean by contender.
A contender is a team that has a legitimate shot to rise out of the west.
Teams with the talent and maturity to win 11 games in April and May.
I'll
call them the big six. The top tier of the big six are Utah, San Antonio,
Portland and the Lakers. The second tier of contenders are Sacramento and
Dallas.
Next
come the pretenders. Teams that are contending to get into the seventh
and eighth slots. Teams that really do not have a chance at making it thorough
the west. The pretenders are Minnesota, Houston, Denver, Seattle and Phoenix.
The
also-rans, are Vancouver, the Clippers, and Golden State. I'll start with
the also-rans. What happened to these guys? They all some some serious
young talent. Vancouver's trio of Abdur-Rahim, Dickerson and Bibby
are three of the most competitive 1,2 and 3's in the league. They just
don't have enough help. Or perhaps they are just used to losing.
Clippers.
Exciting. Odom and company have a lot of talent. They just need some more
experience. Word of advice to the Clippers: keep Odom at all costs! Good
things will come.
Golden
State. Antawn Jamison is a terrific player (25.2ppg 9rpg). He ranks
right up there with the West's other great power forwards. Larry Huges
is very good, and his shooting will come along eventually. These two form
a solid nucleus for future Golden State teams.
All
three of these teams can and should hold their heads up. They'll be pretenders
soon.
Speaking
of pretenders, let's start with the worst of the bunch. Denver.
After some excellent new year play, the Nuggets recent skid exposed their
biggest weakness: Not enough talent. McDyess (22 ppg 12.4 rpg 50% fg) is
having a great year. Van exel (8.6 apg) can play with most point guards
in the west but there is a big drop after these two. Add that to a bad
defense and lousy 3-point shooting and the Nuggets are the ultimate pretenders.
Next
up Seattle. Please don't blame Gary Payton, who is clearly the best
point man in the west (22.5 ppg 8apg). Rashard Lewis and Rueben Patterson
have had solid years. Lewis could be a star soon. The blame rests primarily
on Vin Baker. Sorry Vin, but you've got to get it together. What's happened
since Milwaukee...a long slide. Too bad. Ewing has shown his age and together
they make the Sonics very beatable. This team is comporable to the Grizzlies,
with slightly better big men. Thats not saying much.
Houston
has a shot at the eight spot. Hakeem's playing well enough. Maurice Taylor's
been going strong. Francis is awesome. Mobley and Anderson make them competitive.
Can they make up three games in their final 22? Tough to say, but the teams
standing in their way, Phoenix and Minnesota, better watch their backs
because Houston is a force.
Speaking
of Phoenix. I think they'll make it in, but they're in trouble.
Kidd has to shoot better. Robinson scores well and Shawn Marion is a rising
star. Their biggest problem is not having a center, and their small 2-guard.
Delk has filled in well for Hardaway this season but other teams can take
advantage of his tiny status. Any of the big six will spank this team if
they make it to the playoffs. Only Utah in the first round presents a possible
winnable series.
The
final pretender is Minnesota. No knock on Garnett (22 ppg 11 rpg),
Brandon (7.5 apg) or even Szczerbiak. They have the same problem the Nuggets
have. Excellent 1's and 4's but not much else. Again, only Utah can give
them hope of getting out of the first round, and even so, they're toast
after that. Most likely, they'll play Portland or San Antonio and they
will lose.
