Mar
7, 2001 NBA
BASKETBALL Fan Contribution - - - - -
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Contenders,
Pretenders, and Season-enders of the Western Conference By
MATTHEW SEGEL
Now
for the contenders. Let's start with Utah. Donyell Marshall is proving
very capable of playing the 3 alongside superman Karl Malone. Stockton
is older and slower but still very good. Their problem is similar to the
Suns': no center and a weak 2. Golden Olden Polynice has been playing well
lately but he is still Olden. Ostertag (2bpg) gets some blocks in his limited
time, but he's not good enough. John Starks needs to make more shots. Bottom
line: No matter where the place (1 game up with 25 to go) they'll be in
trouble. They're beatable and I think they go out in the second round.
If they play the Kings, make that the first round.
Dallas.
First, good move to get Howard. Nash is having a great year (7.5 apg 90%
ft) Nowitzki (21.6 ppg 100 three's) and Finley (21.3 ppg) are fantastic.
Finley is the second best 2 in the west. Any way you slice it though, the
Mav's get one of the big six in the first round. I like their chances against
everyone except the Trail Blazers. Bottom line: Excellent team capable
of going deep into the playoffs.
San
Antonio is cruising. They have a solid team. Duncan (21 ppg 12 rpg
2.35 bpg) is have an excellent season. The Admiral's game has fallen to
above average. Still they are very close to being the #2 seed in the west.
I think they'll do it and get a pretender in the first round. However,
Minnesota or Phoenix will give them a tough round. I actually think they
match up will with Portland. Bottom line: I just don't think they'll get
far enough to play them.
Portland
was leading the Pacific division at the time of this writing and I expect
they will end up on top. Bonzi Wells has made a big impact since taking
over the starting role. He is tough to defend. Wallace is no worse than
any of the other elite PF's of the west, though his numbers don't quite
compare. The defense can shut anyone down. The question of who's taking
the last shot in close games is clear: Give it to Rasheed and take your
chances. Same formula as last year except this year Sheed will make those
clutch shots. Portland is the team to beat this year. Bottom line: The
road to the finals goes through P-town.
Sacramento.
Ahh, the beauty of the game. What's right with the game. Sure they pass
well, they shoot well and Webber (27.4 ppg 11.3 rpg 2 bpg) rivals only
Wallace, Duncan, Garnett, Malone and Jamison for bragging rights as the
West's best power forward. They're a good team, but not tough enough to
get through the west. Not enough size. Here's what's wrong: Nobody stops
Shaq. Duncun, Wallace, Garnett and Malone cancel out Webber. The spare
parts on this team do not surpass the other Big Six spare parts. That's
a problem because they'll play one of the big six in the first round. I
say Utah, which is a winnable matchup, but, a possible second round matchup
with Portland spells serious trouble. Dallas or the Lakers in the first
round is big trouble for this smooth team. Bottom line: best show in town
won't last long in the playoffs.
Finally
the Lakers. I had to put them last because they are the defending
champs. Injuries to their big two have hurt them this year. The media's
infatuation with the Kobe-Shaq pseudo-soap opera is a distraction. Shaq
(28 ppg 13 rpg 3 bpg) and Kobe (30 ppg 1.6 spg) are having great years,
and they better keep it up because the Lakers have little else. Rider needs
to become a factor somehow. He's been ok the last few weeks and could really
help in the playoffs. Fox is solid. No home court advantage will hurt.
Here's where I see this Hollywood team going. If they are the 4 or 5 seed
and play the Blazers in the second round, the Laker run is over. If they
are the 3 seed and make it past Dallas - a big 'if' - and pound through
San Antonio, which they should, they could meet the Trail Blazers with
renewed confidence. Two great players make a good team. The Bottom line:
Can they make it to the Western conference finals (where the Blazers will
be waiting)? Will Rasheed choke this year? Final answers: Yes and No.
Those
are my early predictions. Anything can happen in the NBA. That's why I
love this game. Over and out from the land of the free.
