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NBA BASKETBALL April 29, 2002
A Risk Worth Taking



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Last June’s blockbuster deal that sent Elton Brand from Chicago to the L.A. Clippers was one of several moves in recent years that’s caused Bulls’ GM Jerry Krause much derision. Upon closer examination, this controversial trade that allowed the Bulls to draft high school stars, Tyson Chandler and Eddie Curry, was probably a risk worth taking.

In essence, the trade was an admission on Krause’s part that building the Bulls around Brand was a flawed decision. There’s a much better chance that this time Krause has got it right.

Potentially, players like Chandler and especially a center like Curry, are better suited to building an NBA franchise around than a player like Brand. NBA teams are built primarily around point guards and dominating centers. That’s why so many NBA scouts are salivating over the thought of this year’s draft, where both Jason Williams and Yao Ming will probably be available. In lieu of centers and point guards, teams have been built around mobile wingmen like Michael Jordan and Tracy McGrady, who create movement and add opportunities for teammates. Unstoppable shooting guards like Allen Iverson or Kobe Bryant, capable of carrying a team by themselves, are also occasionally the cornerstone of franchises.

Power forwards of the classic, stick back, non-mobile mode like Brand are, by nature, complimentary players. Their main job is cleaning up their teammates misses, rather then by creating.

In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, Martin Manley wrote a series of analytic books about the NBA game. One of the issues he addressed was the relative importance of each position. Using a rough method of correlating players’ individual contributions, with their team success, he found, not surprisingly, that point guards are the most important and power forwards by far the least important.

Few power forwards of the classic mode are capable of carrying a team, excluding agile young stars like Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace. All are formerly listed as power forwards, but Garnett and Wallace actually have small forward skills and Duncan would be playing center if he were not playing alongside David Robinson.

Even Karl Malone, the prototype power forward, considered the greatest ever to play the position, probably would not have become the force he did, if he had not been on the receiving end of John Stockton’s passes.

Possibly the only power forward who could truly dominate a game while not scoring was Denis Rodman. Rodman was such a prolific offensive rebounder that he often took charge of a game.

Due to the huge success of Garnett, Bryant and McGrady, drafting highly skilled high schoolers like Curry and Chandler is no longer viewed as the tremendous risk it once was. Curry is a true center with soft hands and the ability to play with his back to the basket. Chandler is an agile 6’11’’ player in the Garnett, Wallace mold. Both have more potential than Brand. If Krause cashes in with both, he has really hit the jackpot. This is no knock on Brand. He is an excellent young player; steady, leading the league in offensive rebounds and a valuable addition to the Clippers.

Krause has taken a lot of criticism over the years, as much for his difficult personality as for his decision making. If Krause can luck into drafting a playmaker of Jason Williams' caliber to go with Curry and Chandler, he’ll really have a winning ticket for the future.

 

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