By LEWIS HELFAND

One of the oldest sports cliches is that experience counts more than talent. A team that has been to the big games will win out in the playoffs over a young, inexperienced team that might be faster and stronger and better. Generally that holds true. So, Boston and Detroit get thrown out immediately. It doesn't matter that the teams they are facing, Philadelphia and Toronto, are shells of what they once were. The Celtics and Pistons are only seeded so high because every team that made the playoffs last year suffered from a slew of injuries. A worn-down Sixers club and a Carter-less Raptors are still capable of advancing past Boston and Detroit. Facing each other in the second round puts the Sixers back in the Eastern Conference finals. Toronto came within one shot of beating Philly last year, but that one shot came from the hands of Vince Carter. There will be no 50-point duels this year--Sixers advance.

The Nets are another inexperienced, team. And the Pacers, while young, are lead by the playoff savvy veteran, Reggie Miller. This series, however, is an example of when experience does not win out. The East was possibly the weakest it's ever been, but the Nets took first from the start of the season and never looked back. They won't be remembered as one of the all-time great teams, but they don't have to be. They just have to beat the teams they face this year. New Jersey proved it could dominate the East all season and will certainly reach the second round. The four-five match up of Charlotte and Orlando is the most intriguing. Charlotte is a team that lacks true stars or leaders. They lack a dominating big man or a top guard. But they are a good team that was underestimated by Miami last year and it will happen again. Orlando has received a lot of hype. Outside of Tracy McGrady, Orlando's best players are injured or retiring. Charlotte will reach the second round and easily dispatch of the Nets, but the Sixers will return to the NBA Finals. Last year most of Philadelphia was on the disabled list during the playoffs. But if an injured Iverson, McKie and Snow, and a tired Mutombo were enough to lead them past a healthy Milwaukee and Toronto, it will certainly be enough to lead the past Charlotte this year.

Out West, none of the first round series will be much of a test. Sacramento, Dallas, LA and San Antonio were all dominating this year. Minnesota, Portland, Seattle and Utah were not. The one series to watch will be LA-Portland. While the Blazers won't win, they should push the Lakers to five games. Looking at the Lakers back-to-back championships, the assumption is that they will easily three-peat. Not so. The Lakers only made it to the finals in 2000 after the Blazers self-destructed at the end of game seven. And they breezed through the West last year because they faced three teams that quit. Don't expect that this year. Portland believes they can win it. They believe the Lakers are vulnerable. As does San Antonio. Shaq will still dominate, but he can't win a championship by himself. The rest of the team will face two long series against bigger, more physical teams. When they are done battling Davis, Wallace, Kemp, Pippen and Wells, they will be forced to take on Duncan, Robinson and Smith. It will take its toll on the Lakers. But ultimately, Robinson and Smith are too old to give Duncan the support he needs. The Spurs will follow up another strong season with another playoff collapse as the Lakers move to the Western Finals.

In the Kings/Mavs series, the Kings simply have too many weapons. They have planned to be waiting at Arco Arena for a tired Lakers team all season. They have a confident Chris Webber who believes in his team this year. And a second all-star in Peja Stojakovic who has had a championship swagger all season. Sacramento and Dallas were both considered to have a shot at dethroning the Lakers this year. Dallas has a roster filled with talented players as well and will try to put up 130 points a night against Sacramento. But the Kings will use their newly discovered defensive abilities to shut down the Mavericks and then everyone on the Lakers but Shaq. Kings advance.

The Finals will be the same as last year. A broken and battered Philadelphia team struggling to stay alive. Against a quick, athletic team loaded with shooters and big men. Pollard and Divac and Christie and Bibby and Jackson and Turkoglu and...and the Lakers better get ready. The championship parade is coming to LA again--as it passes through on its way to Sacramento.