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NBA BASKETBALL:   Preview Pitfalls

By TED FARRELL               Nov 8, 2001

(Editor's note: This was written just before the start of the season)

At the dawn of each NBA season, we are bombarded with run of the mill preview magazines, littered with writers all too eager to serve up long winded answers to their burning questions for the upcoming season. Will Grant Hill return to his All Star form? Can Michael Jordan carry the Wizards into the playoffs? Is it possible for the Bulls make The NCAA tournament? While these and other queries are sure to elicit responses from around the globe, I thought I would delve a little deeper, and ask a question that is very important to the future chances of all NBA teams. 

What significance do the numbers 19.1, 9.5, 13.4, and 4.2 hold for the upcoming season?

Give up do you? 

All right, let me drop my first hint. It has something to do with the 1992 - 1993 NBA Season.

Getting closer? 

I figured you would. As an astute reader I am sure you have figured out these are scoring and rebounding averages for two players during the aforementioned season. In the interest of time, I will spare you the search through the record books, and tell you that these numbers were put up by Detlef Schrempf and Derrick McKey. 

The casual fan may be wondering what two aging veterans who don’t figure to crack their team’s rotations have to do with the upcoming season, but once again, the knowledgeable fan remembers that Indiana sent Schrempf to Seattle in exchange for McKey. This trade looked absolutely criminal at the time it went down. Schrempf was Indiana’s best player, a major factor in the scoring column and on the glass. McKey was more of a spare part in the Pacific Northwest. His numbers were miles away from the league leaders, and people had no idea what would possess Indiana to make such a move. But something funny happened on the way to this going down as a truly lopsided deal, both teams started winning, and winning big. Seattle and Indiana both went on to great success in the mid to late 1990’s, becoming players on the big stage, and appearing in the NBA Finals. 

The point to all of this, is that it takes a while to see how offseason changes are going to affect each team. Most would have predicted a precipitous slide for the Pacers after dealing Schrempf, and yet they ended up a much improved ballclub. Last year it looked like Miami was going to be the team to beat in The East with the additions of Brian Grant and Eddie Jones. Come playoff time, however, Charlotte, led by young Baron Davis, and Heat castoff Jamal Mashburn, ran them out of the gym three nights in a row. 

Every time a sports league kicks off a new year, I am reminded of the old adage that says, “Predictions are tricky, especially when they’re about the future.” Just remember that no matter what the hype machine in Secaucus tells you, basketball is still very much a team sport. A lot of things have to go right for a team to be good, and even more has to go right for a team to be a champion. So before you look over the rosters, and assess your team’s chances, just remember that all changes are merely cosmetic until proven otherwise. 
 


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