The leading rookie this year is unlikely to be one of the first four picks. Kwame Brown, Chandler, Gasol and Curry were taken for a return in future years. The second half of the top ten has some more likely candidates for Rookie of the Year, Jason Richardson, Shane Battier, Eddie Griffin and Joe Johnson.

A starting spot or plenty of minutes off the bench await these versatile players. The Warriors need someone who can score at a good percentage from the guard position. Memphis have a big hole to fill at small forward with the trade of Abdur-Rahim. The Rockets' spot at power forward is up for grabs with the injury to Maurice Taylor. The Celtics released several free agent swingman during the offseason.

Playing time is the ingredient needed for a player to win the Rookie of the Year award. A good example is late first rounder Mark Jackson, who filled a need for the Knicks and came away with the award. Last year Mike Miller would have been expecting to sit and watch McGrady and Hill. Hill's injury opened up a position and Miller shot his way past Kenyon Martin and Marc Jackson for rookie honors. 

Top Candidates for the Rookie of the Year Award:

Joe Johnson - Boston Celtics.
Johnson is a perfect fit in Boston. The "third scorer" that the team has been after for a while. Boston are looking to speed up their offense this year which will benefit Johnson's stats. Hitting more than 40% of his college three pointers, Johnson should easily displace Eric Williams for a starting spot in Boston.

Eddie Griffin - Houston Rockets.
Griffin will be mainly used at power forward, but has many skills for small forward. An occasional run at center has been suggested by the Houston coaching staff as well. Griffin is versatile, and minutes will come his way.

The injury to Taylor and the non-signing of Marc Jackson mean that Griffin's main rival for playing time will be Kenny Thomas. Griffin's rebounding and shotblocking are skills that Thomas doesn't have.

Shane Battier - Memphis Grizzlies.
It looks like Battier will be able to defend in the NBA. During the Goodwill Games his defensive abilities were apparent, especially his ability to get a hand on the ball. With Wright and Swift getting the starting jobs in the paint, Battier's offense will be perimeter-based. He extended his range throughout his college career but now has to go that extra bit for NBA range. The only challengers for Battier's position on the floor are also rookies, Pau Gasol and Antonis Fotsis.

Jason Richardson - Golden State Warriors.
Larry Hughes can do many things well, but consistent shooting is his problem area. If Richardson can hit the outside shot then the starting spot is his, with Hughes playing some point guard beside him. If Richardson gets the minutes at shooting guard for the Warriors he should be the leading scorer for first year players, but he won't be a big contributor in other stat areas.

Speedy Claxton - Philadelphia 76ers.
Like Damon Stoudamire and Mark Jackson, Claxton could be handling the ball a lot in his first year. Although drafted a year ago, Claxton was injured and missed the entire 2001 season. Eric Snow's injury will open up the starting point guard role for Claxton. If Claxton can hit open jumpers he could keep it when Snow returns.

Players who are an injury or trade away:

Zach Randolph - Portland Trailblazers.
Sabonis isn't returning so Portland have to adjust their strategy at center. Dale Davis will be used but is better suited to power forward. If the choice for coach Cheeks is between Randolph and Chris Dudley expect the rookie to get a look.

Kwame Brown - Washington Wizards.
He will get some votes for the rookie award because he will be one of the most publicized rookies, due to his teammate Jordan and his first overall selection. Even without a minute of college basketball, Brown has a better offensive game than many of the Washington inside players.

Andrei Kirilenko - Utah Jazz.
Watchers of international basketball have seen this athletic player for several years. With Utah's problems at center Jerry Sloan may opt for a Malone-Marshall-Kirilenko frontcourt, especially at the end of close games.

Loren Woods - Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota are going to have some unorthodox lineups on the floor this season and Woods should fit into their plans. Although Minnesota will likely play without a center at times, Woods should get the nod over Nesterovic or Garrett when a big-man is required. In a zone defense, Woods and Garnett could pose problems for teams with their long arms.

Pau Gasol - Memphis Grizzlies.
Gasol hasn't been playing against players his own age the last few years. In the Spanish league he has been playing with and against NBA-quality players. This could help in his transition to the NBA. A tall but thin player, Gasol will be used at both forward spots in Memphis.

Expect a close contest for rookie honors this season. Battier may be the only rookie starting on opening night but by the end of the season up to seven first year players could have earned a spot in their starting five. Richardson and Battier will perform well but the minutes and shot attempts will be what puts Joe Johnson and Eddie Griffin at the head of their class, if only for this season.