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The 2000-2001 NBA Season By Tom Snow October 18 The 2000-2001 National Basketball season looms immediately on a lowering horizon. The sound of basketballs pounding on driveways and the dull screech of rubber soles on concrete reverberate through neighborhoods around the country. The leaves change colors and drift to the ground and the morning air again has the sweet, crisp quality that signals the arrival of autumn. In the next few weeks the nights will get longer and colder and will increasingly push sports fans out of stadiums and ballparks and into the comfortable confines of massive, commercially branded venues. Okay, I admit the dream is imperfect, but it still has immeasurably greater appeal than the wholly unnatural spectacle of a Summer Olympics in September or baseball in November. So all that remains for basketball fans is the implementation of a carefully constructed personal economic strategy. The goal of this carefully prepared plan is the provision of funds to finance regular attendance at games featuring the NBA team(s) of your choice while, ideally, still provide funding for some, if not all, of the essentials of life in the face of approaching winter. The level of financial creativity required for each fan is a function of their personal cash flow and basketball fanaticism. Truly desperate fans can execute a Utah Jazz pick-and-roll between low introductory rate credits cards. While this attend-now-and-pay-later-strategy has some clear merit, it should be remembered the same strategy for team building brought us salary caps in the NBA and NFL, so proceed with caution. For the fan with greater resources, tax loss selling of some battered technology stocks can generate dollars today-although a lot less than during last years NBA season-and potentially reduce taxes next year just as the playoffs are about to begin. Some fans will even have the chance to encounter true 21st century irony when they attend a game in a facility bearing the familiar name and logo of their own, personal, tech meltdown. But for all fans, it is important, even imperative, that you decide on your strategy now, because we are heading into a very exciting NBA season. This season promises to be one of the most competitive and perhaps, compelling seasons in recent memory. It could well rekindle fond memories of the pre-Jordan Chicago Bulls era when the Celtics, Lakers, Pistons, and Rockets created memorable rivalries at both the team and individual position level. Yes, this season presents a competitive structure balanced so evenly across Divisions and Conferences that it seems impossible that it is by chance and not a grand design. But chance it is and no David Stern designed marketing plan could so effectively craft the real drama and excitement that this season will produce. So lace up your sneakers, pull down your goggles, and stretch those tight summer muscles because it’s fall, it’s time for basketball-get ready to run! The strongest Conference is clearly the Western and the strongest Division is the Pacific. The Pacific division may be, top to bottom, the most talented Division in NBA history. And at the top of the Division is the defending NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers. This year the Lakers will seek to elevate themselves from the Champion level to that of dynasty. They bring Shaq, the near unanimous league MVP last season-nuff said, an emerging supernova in Kobe Bryant, and the solid talent, class, professionalism, and tenacity of newly acquired Horace Grant. This team will be stronger physically and mentally than last season. The poison vials for this team, other than complacency-don’t see it, and injury-can’t presume it, are the poseur tendencies of Rick Fox and the continued psychological deterioration of Robert Horry. As for Isaiah Rider, he won’t matter at all unless he contributes positively. If he doesn’t, the leash will snap so hard and fast that it’ll make Sprewell’s Carlisimo choke hold look like a Swedish massage. Portland’s Trailblazers will desperately seek to challenge the Lakers. Reloaded with Dale Davis and Shawn Kemp, and still possessing the deepest collection of “A” talent in the league in Scottie Pippen, Steve Smith, Rasheed Wallace, and Damon Stoudamire. They have the skill, the speed, the defense, and now, with Dale Davis to add muscle and toughness, they may have the intangible quality that, absent in the playoffs last season, made them into the most gifted losers in recent memory. But one question remains; with Scottie Pippen as the titular leader, can this group ever win in the glare of a high profile playoff environment? I still get the feeling when I watch Pippen that I am looking at a taller version of Greg Norman. Does this guy simply fail to rise to the occasion of being a champion (absent the presence of a certain former team-mate), or is there some quality about him that stokes the competitive fires of his opponents and perfects in them the champion’s will? We will find out this year-he’s thirty-five and getting creaky-and expensive. Without dwelling on Utah, we will merely note that they will execute with precision and class and will fail to win again. It will be a small shame that Malone and Stockton will eventually retire without a Championship that is truly their own (I’m allowing room for Malone to end his career somewhere else aka Patrick Ewing). On a brighter note, the twin towers of San Antonio will be re-united. The question remains whether David Robinson can play a full season. I realize that I am contradicting my earlier assertion that injuries cannot be presumed. But we are, after all, talking about David Robinson. Call it the Robinson rule for short-you will see it again later. Even with Robinson at his best, I’ll take either the Lakers or the TrailBlazers out the Western Conference any day. About now I fantasize how Tim Duncan would look with Grant Hill on one wing and Tracy McGrady on the other. There is a zero sum calculus that measures the impact of true superstars. I believe it will become apparent in the next several years that Duncan’s decision to resign with the Spurs took more away from the Orlando Magic and the Eastern Conference than it added to the San Antonio Spurs and the Western conference. Other stories in the West include the diminishing returns of an incomplete Timberwolves team and the strange collection of talented, mid-size individuals in Phoenix (there must be a glass ceiling in Arizona that keeps anyone over 6’10” tall with talent from establishing residency). In Houston, the slowly deteriorating body and career of Hakeem Olajuwan will coincide with another sad season. Each of these teams will win enough games by beating up on each other and on Eastern Conference foes to make it out of the lottery (except Houston) and earn a lopsided early round playoff loss. The developmental theme for each team will be identifying the structural changes necessary to compete with the Lakers and Blazers, and to catch up with the emerging Grizzlies, Sonics, Warriors, and Kings. Perhaps the most revealing example
of the strength of the Western Conference is that even the lower tier teams
like Vancouver, Seattle, Golden State and Sacramento are in varying stages
of significant improvement and offer exciting glimpses of the potential
of their young teams. It’s as if the early entry sweepstakes that
has been depleting the college ranks of its most exciting and marketable
talent for the past five years has disproportionately stocked the teams
of the Western Conference with those same players. Three years from
now the character of this conference could be altered by a dramatic, vertical
reversal powered by the emergence of a new generation of stars in these
smaller market cities.
In the East, the Miami Heat was the team to beat before the shocking news concerning Alonzo Mourning’s kidney trouble surfaced. This tragic development will recast the balance of power in the Atlantic Division, and the entire Eastern Conference since Mourning will, at minimum, miss the 200-2001 season. The net basketball result of this news is that with Miami weakened measurably, the opportunity for other teams has just become much better. The New York Knicks, now smaller, faster, and hopefully happier-we’ll see very quickly-are one of the teams that have the potential to surprise fans and foes alike. Surprise status also applies, albeit less convincingly, to Indiana, now that Reggie Miller’s running mates of the past decade have been replaced by a bunch of red shirt freshmen. The combustible personality of Philadelphia promises equal parts entertainment and consternation and enigmatic New Jersey, with number one draft pick and college Player of the Year Kenyon Martin on board and healthy, could reach 40-45 wins and contend for the playoffs. Several of these teams also are in an underground market for the services of Atlanta Hawk Dikembe Mutombo who is clearly planning to leave Atlanta after his contract expires. The winner of that sweepstakes will move to the head of the pack. The most visible and intriguing team is the East is the Orlando Magic. The very public pursuit of Tim Duncan, Grant Hill, and Tracy McGrady, followed by the signing of Hill and McGrady and the polite pass taken by Duncan, was the exclamation point on a season of over achievement by players and coaches alike. Sixty six percent is a great game’s won statistic, but it is radically less promising when referring to free agent acquisitions when the lost thirty three percent element is Tim Duncan. As good as Tracy McGrady is-probably better than Grant Hill soon-everyone knows that the Magic’s championship plans were predicated on a Hill and Duncan-outside and inside-combination, not on perimeter prowess of Hill and McGrady. In addition, the fertile ground of low expectations and a too-dumb-to-be-scared mentality lifted the Magic from cellar dweller to almost-playoffs status. This season, Coach Doc Rivers and his new crew of high priced, high profile stars will face the potentially disabling pressure of lofty expectations even as they try to blend all these new elements into a fresh, and hopefully stable, chemistry. The relative weakness of the Eastern Conference will help to soften any missteps in this transition, but, ultimately, most teams (the Utah Jazz being a notable exception) discover that the toughest opponents are internal ones. My intuition senses a “sophomore slump” for Coach Rivers and the Magic. Avoiding the slump and repeating as NBA Coach of the Year will require honorary doctoral degrees in Chemistry and Psychiatry for the coach, and given Grants Hill's slow recovery from ankle surgery, a few courses in physical therapy wouldn’t hurt either. This takes us to the other high-profile team in the east, the Miami Heat. The Heat were loaded. They had size, were physically intimidating, and displayed a multifaceted offensive capability comparable the best teams in the West. That was then. Sadly, Zo’s illness, which is far more important as a health issue, changes things for the Heat basketball team. Like the Orlando Magic, the Heat rebuilt over the off season. The architectural plans were extensive and complex, requiring both internal and external renovation, but the structural integrity relied primarily on a centrally located, large, load-bearing beam. Call that beam Zo. Even if you anticipate the inevitable disabled list absence of star guard Tim Hardaway (remember the Robinson Rule), with Mourning in the middle, and Eddie Jones, Brian Grant, and Antonio Mason around him, the Heat would have had the quality and depth to be the class of the Eastern Conference. Instead, they will look a lot more like the other teams in the Atlantic Division and the result is a wide-open battle for the Division title. The Heat organization, including head Coach Pat Riley and Mourning himself, were understandably focused on dealing with the personal side of the disclosure and how it will affect Mourning’s health rather than the basketball side of the issue. Premature, at the time, comparisons were drawn to San Antonio Spurs forward Sean Elliot’s kidney problems that led to a kidney transplant two seasons ago. And speculation concerning the long-term potential problems associated with commonly used anti-inflammatory drugs taken by NBA players may be useful in the long term, but merely clouded the issue in the vacuum of real information. The Heat still have the potential to win the Atlantic Division. The core of the team is strong, athletic, purposeful, and battle tested. Riley is a proven winner as coach and the players are professionals in the best sense of the word. But where no other team in the conference could have consistently competed with Miami straight up with Zo in the middle, his absence draws the pack closer together This heightened competitive state, a generally small and athletic Atlantic Division, will produce some exciting, run-and-gun basketball. Conditioning, turnover ratio, and transition defense will be the three critical elements to the hyperball that will characterize the Division this season. The Nets, Raptors, 76ers, Hornets, and the new look Knicks and Pacers all have the horses to try this strategy. Hell, Rick Pitino ought to be in heaven-unfortunately he is in Boston instead and absent divine intervention, he doesn’t have the ponies. Indeed, you wonder if any Eastern Conference coaches will spend more than token time on defense. What time they do spend will probably be on transition defense since watching basketball this season will feel like watching a tennis match with all the back and forth. Turn off the twenty-four second clock and make sure that all scoreboard operators have plenty of experience and strong bladders because 100 point games are coming back to an arena near you. The big, banging Eastern Conference of the past has been turned on its head. Even so, the Alonzo Mourning illness will be a tragic footnote, if not headline, for the Eastern Conference whomever survives this frenetic season and moves on to compete with the Lakers, Blazers, or Spurs for the NBA title. You get the feeling that a dark horse will somehow emerge from the pack and win the Eastern Conference. Look for the New York Knicks to be the author of that surprise development. Jeff Van Gundy is an underrated coach and the post-Patrick Ewing period could provide a dramatic rebirth for Allen Houston, Latrell Sprewell, and company. This team could actually start acting and playing like a team and use the “insult” of lowered expectations to rediscover their pride and launch an “us against the world” drive to the Division and Conference Titles. Momentum means a lot, and a bunch of exciting, running and gunning Knicks, with a deafening chorus of rabid, energized Knicks fans, could turn Madison Square Garden into the most frightful home court advantage since the one enjoyed by the pre United Center Bulls. Amazingly, the two Conferences, so different on paper in style and talent, offer equally compelling competitive possibilities. Therefore, I say with a confidence that feels almost mystical, that the 2000-2001 NBA season will be “funtastic” for all comers. There will be more scoring, more dunks, better competition, closer games, and closer division races than in years. Now the only question that remains is which economic model each fan will adopt to participate in this season of excess. Let the carnage begin! ____________ [ InsideHoops Home | Discuss this on the NBA Message Board ] Sign up for a free web-based email account @InsideHoops by clicking here. Basketball fans who don't use InsideHoops
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