By Howie

OK class, repeat after me,   "The balance of power has shifted to the Western Conference."

Very good.  Now try, "Whoever wins the Western Conference title will win the NBA Championship."

Excellent. And how about "The Blazers and Lakers might as well play off now for the NBA title."

It seems as if every would-be NBA authority sitting on their couch watching Sportscentre has been reciting this mantra since Portland swung the deal which brought Shawn Kemp from Cleveland for the disgruntled Brian Grant.

Who can blame them?  The Blazers, looking in danger of losing rebounding moose Grant, not only pick up All-Star Kemp but hard-hat worker Dale Davis as well.  The Lakers, not content with standing pat after winning the championship, sign the
talented Isaiah Rider for almost nada and pick up the legit power forward they have long coveted in Horace Grant.

The two teams that were best in the West last season seemingly just got better.  The Western Champs won last year in a romp, so QED the race for the hardware this year is between the Lakers and Blazers, right?

We'll argue over that little assumption in another column but for now, let's just suppose that these remote-control wielding experts are on the money.  Let's cut to the chase and have a look at just how the Blazers and Lakers match-up against each
other should they square off today:

Point guard
Ron Harper vs Damon Stoudamire
Mighty Mouse versus Harp.  The 6-7 Harper starts nominally in the one spot for LA, although Kobe Bryant handles the ball just as much in Phil Jackson's triangle offence. Harper is a superb defender and an intelligent veteran who helps the Lakers get
into their offence.  Whilst chronic knee problems have undoubtedly slowed him down, he continues to be an important piece to the Lakes' puzzle due to his ability to operate within the triangle offence.

5-10 point man Damon Stoudamire continues to get the starters' nod from Blazers' coach Mike Dunleavy.  While Stoudamire has superior numbers to Harper pretty much across the board in the regular season, when the Blazers played the Lakers in the
Conference Finals Harpers stats were better than Stoudamire's.  The diminutive guard's size (or lack of it) causes match-up problems for the Blazers, especially when he is checking big guards who can post-up such as Harper.

Advantage:  Even
Its simple really. Stoudamire is too fast for Harper and Harper is too big for Stoudamire.  They virtually cancel each other out.

Shooting guard
Isaiah Rider vs Steve Smith
Now that Glenn Rice has gone to Gotham, new acquisition Isaiah Rider should start at the two spot with Kobe Bryant shifting to the three.  Rider has a troubled history and his addition could well spell disaster for the young Lakers' chemistry. However coach Phil Jackson has had success with difficult players before (see Dennis Rodman) and evidently believes that he can get Rider to play hard.  Rider's offensive talent is unquestioned and his decision to sign for less money with the Lakers hints at a new maturity.  Only time will tell whether the Lakers' gamble on Rider will pay off or whether Mitch Kupchak's first move as Lakers' GM has doomed their bid for back-to-back titles.

Steve Smith sacrificed over four shots per game (down to just under 11 attempts per outing from 15) to join the talented Blazers last season.  His minutes also dropped to their lowest level since his rookie season (32.8) yet he remained a productive part of the Portland offence.  He has the ability to post-up smaller guards and is an excellent three-point shooter, a quality which is crucial given the number of double teams Rasheed Wallace draws in the paint.  Whether Smith is able to handle the post-Olympic funk that has cursed many previous Dream Teamers remains to be seen.

Advantage: Even
The Rider-Smith match-up is fairly even.  Smith is a better shooter and has a height advantage but Rider is more athletic and
should be able to get to the basket on the slower Smith.  On the defensive end, well, let's just say that neither of them has
shown the inclination to vie for the NBA All-Defensive team any time soon.
 

Small Forward
Kobe Bryant vs Scottie Pippen
This is the sort of match-up that people like Jack Nicholson pay big money to see.  Pippen, former disciple of Phil Jackson, against the zen master's current prodigy, Bryant.  Pippen is a hardened veteran who is a predator on defence and a potent
force on offence. He is more than capable of handling the ball, has three-point range and can post-up smaller opponents.  His tendency to disappear in the closing stages of big games is a worry for the Blazers (just where was Scottie in the last
quarter of Portland's Game Seven collapse against the Lakers?) but Pippen's experienece was one of the key reasons for Portland's advance deep into the post-season.

Bryant continues to develop at an astounding rate.  In just his fourth year in the league, Bryant showed the sort of All-Star consistency that must be driving fans of Charlotte (who originally drafted him) nuts.  His averages for assists and rebounds
are almost a carbon copy of Pippen's and he is scoring almost ten points a game more.  Phil Jackson convinced Bryant that he should also play defence so he became an All-NBA defender by season's end.  Whilst his shot selection still needs some
refinement, so did that of one M. Jordan early in his career.

Advantage:  Lakers
Before Scottie fans try to string me up by my delicate bits for dissing the owner of six NBA Championship rings, let me say I am a huge fan of Pippen's.  However Bryant has equaled or surpassed Pippen in nearly every statistical category.  While Pippen has light years more experience than Kobe, Bryant showed that he is just as mature with his performances throughout the Playoffs last year.  The scary thing is that Bryant will only get better with age.

Power forward
Rasheed Wallace vs Horace Grant
Lakers' fans were celebrating when LA shipped the under-achieving Glenn Rice out of town to bring Horace Grant to la-la land. Even Shaquille O'Neal had been bemoaning the lack of a thug power forward to back him up in the paint.  On the surface of it,
Grant now fills that need.  Horace should adapt to the triangle quickly given he was coached by Jackson in Chicago and he has always been able to defend players bigger than himself.  This latter quality would seem important given Wallace averaged over
23 points per game in the Conference Finals against the Lakers last season.  However despite logging over 35 minutes a game last year, Grant contributed only 8.1 points and 7.8 rebounds in his worst season since his rookie outing.  At 35 years of
age, Grant's game is slipping noticeably.

Wallace, on the other hand, registered career-best figures in scoring, rebounds, blocked shots and steals last season.  He became an All-Star for the first time and was often the player that the Blazers looked to in the clutch.  With a superb
mixture of size and athleticism as well as continually improving post-up and face-up games, Wallace has become the stud that many GM's feared he might when he entered the league. Sure, he isn't going to win any Miss Congeniality contests with his
fiery temper but when last we looked that wasn't a pre-requisite for an NBA Champion.

Advantage: Blazers
Whilst Horace Grant is an upgrade for the Lakers' four spot, he is still no match for an improving Wallace.  Rasheed posted
two 24 point games against Grant's Sonics last season so don't expect an aging Horace to stop the 'sheed show.
 

Centre
Arvydas Sabonis vs Shaquille O'Neal
Arvydas Sabonis should be back from the off-season surgery which kept him out of the Olympics to once again hold down the pivot for the Blazers.  A superb passer and shooter with a deft array of low-post moves, Sabonis is still one of the NBA's
better centre's despite advancing age and crippling injuries.  What he lacks in athleticism (and he lacks a lot) he makes up for with experience, intelligence and sheer size.

Unfortunately for the Blazers, Shaquille O'Neal is the NBA's best centre, if not the league's best player.  He grew under Jackson's tutelage last season, expanding his game to the point where he dominated on both ends of the floor.  His free throw
shooting continued to decline but even "hack-a-shaq" could not stop O'Neal driving the Lakers to the championship.  The guy was the league MVP, what more needs to be said?

Advantage: Lakers
The Blazers held Shaq almost four points below his season's average in their Western Conference showdown.  The problem was he
still scored over 25 points a game.

Key Reserves
Lakers: Derek Fisher, Rick Fox, Brian Shaw, Robert Horry
One of Phil Jackson's strengths as a coach has always been his ability to get the most out of his role players and his stint at LA has once again highlighted this.  Fisher, Fox, Shaw and Horry all made significant contributions off the bench to the Lakers' championship run and all are back on board.

Blazers: Greg Anthony, Shawn Kemp, Bonzi Wells, Dale Davis
Yikes, this looks awful like a decent starting line-up!  Coach Mike Dunleavy will need to continue to juggle minutes as he tries keep everyone happy.  The Blazers' depth is second to none and the envy of every league GM.

Advantage: Blazers
Whilst the Lakers have consumate role players on their bench, the Blazers are laden with talent and have the ability to call on All-Stars when they turn to their reserves.

Series Prediction:  Blazers in seven
The Blazers stretched LA to seven last season and have (on paper at least) improved themselves over the summer.  Most of their maneuverings have been done with an eye to matching up even better against Shaq and the Lakers come Playoff time.  If I
had to bet (and I'm glad I don't) my money would be on Portland securing the homecourt advantage and then closing a classic series out in seven.

9/3/2000
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