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By Joseph Boylan

Trade Analysis: Detroit/Golden State and Mavericks/Golden State

The Golden State Warriors organization, after losing Gilbert Arenas to free agency, decided they were not content with the personnel they had in place. A front-court logjam and a capped-out roster usually aren’t the best signs for a team that only won 38 games. The first move they decided to make was shipping essentially Antawn Jamison for Nick Van Exel. Danny Fortson, Chris Mills and Jiri Welsch were also included in the deal, and the Mavericks gleefully pawned off Evan Eschmeyer, Avery Johnson, Popeye Jones and Antoine Rigaudeau. Three days later, they traded backup guard Bob Sura to the Pistons for forward Cliff Robinson and Pepe Sanchez.

Warriors/Mavericks trade

Upon closer inspection, it seems unfair that Golden State was getting ripped publicly for this trade. True, they violated two cardinal rules of trading (young for old, big for small), but consider the circumstances: Jamison is an extremely talented but highly overpaid, one-dimensional player who was not only unhappy in his role on the team, but also was retarding the growth of the Warrior’s youth. The Warriors made a mistake when they rewarded Jamison with a maximum contract, and this was their way of admitting a mistake, and trying to salvage something of the situation. He was a small forward who wanted to be a power forward. And when he was playing power forward, he was always complaining.

To make matters worse, the future of the organization was not with Jamison. Yes, for the past few years he has consistently been their best player, but he’s a glorified role player putting up big numbers on a bad team. The Warriors future will be determined based on how well Jason Richardson, Mickael Pietrus, Mike Dunleavy, and Troy Murphy develop. If you take a closer look, you’ll notice three of those four essentially play the same position. With Jamison still on the roster, Dunleavy most certainly would not have received the minutes he needs to develop into the modern-day Larry Bird that Chris Mullin so desperately hopes he can become. This trade was not about acquiring Nick the Quick, who will do just as Jamison did, putting up huge numbers on a bad team. This trade was about clearing contracts, and clearing minutes. Avery Johnson has an expiring contract, but Eschmeyer still has four years left on his deal. In short, Golden State is informing everyone in the league, we are undergoing an overhaul. We are going to change the face of the team.

From the Mavericks standpoint, this was a real coup. They dump Eschmeyer, Jones, and Rigaudeau’s contracts, throw in Avery Johnson, and painfully give up Nick Van Exel, arguably their best playoff performer. In exchange they received three players that will legitimately play for them next season. That’s not a bad ratio, 3 for 1. It will be tough to replace Van Exel who almost single-handedly kept the Mavs afloat during the playoffs, but overall Dallas strengthened their roster. Jamison, as imperfect as he was for Golden State, is inversely a textbook fit for the Mavericks. With the frontcourt of Jamison and Nowitzki, it allows both players do operate in their comfort zones: Jamison on the low block, Nowitzki on the perimeter. A young, potentially lethal inside-out combo paired with the steady backcourt of Steve Nash and Michael Finely makes the Mavs more dangerous than before, especially in a half-court set. And while Jamison isn’t the lock-down defender or the tough interior presence they had hoped for, they’ll settle for a 22 ppg scorer who can rebound with ferocity on both ends. The players that make this deal a steal for Dallas, however, are Danny Fortson and Jiri Welsch. Fortson, despite being 6’6, is probably the premier rebounder in the league not named Ben Wallace. His attitude, desire, and work ethic have all been questioned, but he is a force on the boards and therefore will play himself in the Maverick’s rotation. He is everything they hoped Popeye Jones would be, but didn’t pan out. Unfortunately, he also isn’t going to stop 90% of the power forwards in the league from abusing him in the post, but he does add a dimension. According to Mark Cuban, the deal would not have happened if not for the inclusion of the combo-guard Jiri Welsch. He’s a big European guard who can shoot and handle the ball, which is valuable at his size (6’6).

In conclusion, Dallas most certainly got the better end of this deal, upgrading their starting 5 by adding a scoring/rebounding "small forward" and bolstering a few needs of their bench with rebounding-machine Danny Fortson and the multi-dimensional Welsch. However, Golden State is improperly ripped for the deal, and if Dunleavy and/or Pietrus blossoms this season, it will be due largely to this trade that gave them the minutes. If Dunleavy busts and the Warriors spend the next few years searching for a legitimate small forward, then the criticism will be well deserved.

Warriors/Pistons Trade

This trade was exponentially more puzzling for the Warriors than their trade with Dallas. At least the trade with Dallas showed purpose and vision. This trade with the Pistons makes it seem like Golden State is only concerned with making the rest of the league better. The Warriors dealt PG/SG Bob Sura, and his expiring contract, to the Detroit Pistons for Cliff Robinson and Pepe Sanchez. Cliff Robinson, at 36, just recently signed a two-year, $10 million dollar contract extension, after which he promptly stopped producing on the court. While Robinson is a valuable defender and veteran presence, on the court he is a jump-shooting, non-rebounding center.

All the Warriors fans out there, if there is a trade you should be pulling your hair out about, it’s this one. Bob Sura probably wasn’t going to play much this year for the Warriors, not with Nick Van Exel, Speedy Claxton, Jason Richardson, and Mickael Pietrus jockeying for backcourt minutes. But his value was in the cap relief he would provide next year, considering the Antawn Jamsion trade was supposedly to acquire some much-needed cap relief. Instead, they brought on Pepe Sanchez, an ex-Temple point guard who will spend the year with some made up injury, and Cliff Robinson, an above-average defender with zero rebounding skills at 6’10. Again, if the idea was to remove the front court logjam by trading Jamison for Van Exel, why bring in Uncle Cliffy? Some publications say that he will be able to replace Jamison in the starting lineup, at small forward. While Robinson may have played small forward ten years ago, at 36 he simply cannot keep up with the athleticism of the "threes" in the NBA today. In Detroit, he was used primarily as a center, with Ben Wallace playing power forward and Michael Curry at small forward. There is no questioning his ability to defend, he was 2nd team All-Defense last year, but as he continues to age his talents are diminishing. There’s almost no chance that he will beat out Troy Murphy for the starting power forward spot, so I envision him as a valuable reserve.

Most Pistons fans are asking each other, "How did Joe Dumars do it?" How could he pull off such a one-sided deal? For weeks there has been speculation about the Pistons moving one of their veteran players, in an effort to clear cap space and the glut of forwards they have. The most popular person to trade, from a Pistons’ fan perspective, was aging Cliff Robinson. That would open up playing time for rookie Darko Milicic and second-year forward Mehmet Okur, and provide the Pistons with some cap flexibility to resign Okur next season. Meanwhile, after losing Jon Barry to free agency, and with the Pistons other draft pick, Carlos Delfino, going back to Europe for another year, Bob Sura will actually step right in and contribute.

In conclusion, Golden State made a questionable decision to trade an expiring contract for an aging veteran with two years left on his deal. If, somehow, Robinson is able to step in and play small forward in the Western conference and continue to defend the way he has in the past -- it’s a wash. The most likely scenario, however, is that Van Exel and Richardson will start in the backcourt, with Dunleavy (due to some intense pressure from the ownership), Murphy, and Dampier. That leaves Claxton, Pietrus, Foyle, and Robinson off the bench, and it’s difficult to say the Warriors improved with these two moves. For the Pistons, they acquired a reserve combo guard to help their depth and replace Jon Barry, and can breathe easy now knowing they have the cap space they need once Sura’s contract is up.