NBA Playoffs Will Provide Upsets
By Michael Hobson / Apr. 27, 2005
There isn’t a dominant team in the NBA any longer. With the dissolution of the Los Angeles Lakers the league title is open to any team that can get hot over the next couple of months. Most supposed experts have proclaimed that the San Antonio Spurs are the heavy favourite, but there is also a distinct possibility that the Spurs won’t even make it out of the first round. Miami and Detroit are destined to meet for the Eastern title and it is quite likely that the winner of that series will win it all. The West has more quality teams and thus it will be much more difficult for that conference’s eventual winner to make it to the Finals. That team, like the Lakers last season, won’t have much left for the final battle.
The West is the best. There is little doubt about that fact since neither the defending regular season conference champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves, nor the defending playoff victors from L.A. made the playoffs. This shows the depth of the conference. That depth will wear down the team fortunate enough to work its way through each round. The highest seeds from Phoenix and San Antonio are supposed to have the easiest paths, but while the Suns will likely dispose of the Memphis Grizzlies in quick fashion, the Spurs are facing the NBA’s hottest team heading into the playoffs, the Denver Nuggets. It would not be a surprise if the Nuggets were able to beat the Spurs. Tim Duncan isn’t completely healthy and the Nuggets have a ton of front-court depth that causes match-up problems for the Spurs. If San Antonio is going to win this series they are going to have to rely on some incredible performances from not only Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, but from bench players Brent Barry, Robert Horry and Nazr Mohammed. If the Spurs are going to win the championship they are going to need Duncan to be at his fundamental best.
The most enigmatic of teams heading into the post-season has to be the Houston Rockets. Here is a team that, on any given night, can beat any team in the league. Yet, if Yao Ming finds himself in early foul trouble and Tracy McGrady decides that he needs to score 40 points for the team to win then the Rockets will lose. Houston was one of the NBA’s top teams in March, but there is the thought that maybe this team peaked a little early as they struggled somewhat before the playoffs began. Their early games against Dallas, however, have shown that this club has pulled together and has the tenacity and the ability to win games in even the toughest of arenas. If T-Mac stays within the structure of the team and continues to involve his teammates—and his teammates continue to hit open shots—then the Rockets have the skill, and the depth, to make it all the way through the West.
The one team, surprisingly, that is receiving very little attention is the conference champion Suns. Few experts believe that the run and gun style employed by the Suns, which worked well enough during the regular season to net the team 60 wins, will not be as successful in the playoffs. This analysis makes little sense. The speed and quickness employed by Phoenix dictates the game and forces their opponents onto the defensive. It will take another quick team that is able to defend the fast break, since the Suns fast break even after an opponents’ made basket. The Mavericks may be the only team quick enough to defend against the Suns, but it is likely that the Mavs won’t even get that opportunity. If the Rockets face the Suns they may have a chance simply because they have enough scorers to stay with Phoenix, and have a defensive system that might slow down Phoenix. Also, because of their lack of depth if any injury befalls a member of the Suns starting five then their chances of winning the conference will greatly diminish.
My choice for Western finalists – Houston and Phoenix, providing they don’t meet in the conference semis. If they do then I’ll take Phoenix over the Spurs in the Final.
The East is much easier to track. There are really only two teams in this conference—the rest are either pretenders to the throne or simply first round fodder.
Isn’t it nice that Vince Carter whined and shirked his way out of Toronto and made the playoffs in Jersey—Yecch. Fortunately his stay in the post-season will be brief—the Nets might win one game. The Pistons will have a little more difficulty disposing of the 76ers, though not much more. Philly has hamstrung their organization for several years by absorbing the heavy Chris Webber contract, and will find themselves at the bottom—at best—of the playoff picture for years to come. Meanwhile the Pistons might actually be better than they were last season. They had Rasheed Wallace for an entire year, they signed Antonio McDyess, who has been the leader of their second team, and they traded for Carlos Arroyo midway though the season to fill the back-up point guard hole. The Pistons and the Heat shouldn’t have too much difficulty getting to the Conference Finals.
Two young teams, the Wizards and the Bulls, on their way up in the conference are meeting in an exciting first round match-up. The winner will feel as if they have accomplished everything they could have hoped for this year—that is before they get extinguished by either of the top two clubs.
My prediction is that the Heat will beat the Pistons in a wonderfully played and exciting seven game series—decided simply because Miami has both home court advantage and the most dominant player in the game. The Heat will then feel mighty good about their trade for the Big Diesel when the league’s MVP leads the team to the championship they never thought they’d see.
|