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The 2004-05 NBA Southwest division preview, with teams listed in predicted order of regular season finish.

1. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Coach: Gregg Popovich (396-210 in eight years with Spurs).

Last Season: 57-25, lost to L.A. Lakers in Western Conference semifinals.

Projected Starters: G Tony Parker, G Manu Ginobili, F Bruce Bowen, F Tim Duncan, C Rasho Nesterovic.

Top Reserves: G Brent Barry, F Robert Horry, F Malik Rose, G/F Devin Brown, G Beno Udrih-r.

New Faces: Barry, Udrih, G Romain Sato-r.

Strengths: Duncan remains the game‘s best true power forward, scoring, passing and defending better than any big man in the league. With him, the Spurs will always be considered one of the top two or three teams in the West. Bowen is a frustrating defender, Ginobili an outstanding slasher, and Parker the best point guard under the age of 23. The addition of Barry’s outside stroke and ballhandling skills will enable the Spurs to improve on last season’s win total.

Weaknesses: Nesterovic is unselfish to a fault and maddeningly inconsistent. And for as fundamentally-sound as this team is, there‘s no excuse for the horrid free-throw shooting.

Outlook: On paper, no one in the West is better, with Minnesota and Sacramento the only two that could be considered equals. Still, the Spurs have the edge because of their defense and Popovich‘s cool and crafty coaching. Now that Shaquille O‘Neal is in the East, the Spurs are well-rounded and deep enough to become the West‘s most feared club for quite some time. At the very least, they should secure home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

Prediction: 60-22.

2. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Coach: Hubie Brown (78-78 in two years with Grizzlies, 415-476 in 11 seasons overall).

Last Season: 50-32, lost to San Antonio in Western Conference first round.

Projected Starters: G Jason Williams, G Mike Miller, F James Posey, F Pau Gasol, C Lorenzen Wright.

Top Reserves: G/F Bonzi Wells, G/F Shane Battier, F/C Stromile Swift, F Brian Cardinal, G Earl Watson, G Troy Bell, F Bo Outlaw.

New Faces: Cardinal, G Antonio Burks-r, G Andre Emmett-r, F Sergie Lishouk-r.

Strengths: Besides being young, deep and athletic, the Grizzlies play team ball in its purest form. Throw in the fact Brown is one of the game’s great strategists, and there’s no reason Memphis can’t improve on last year’s 50-win season. Especially when you consider everyone is back and knows his role.

Weaknesses: The Grizzlies could afford to get a little tougher, as their defense, rebounding and low-post play definitely won’t frighten anyone. There are also a lot of guys on this team who play the same position and style -- from Wells to Battier to Cardinal to Dahntay Jones. That type of equality can muddle team chemistry.

Outlook: Critics point to the element of surprise for the Grizzlies’ success last season -- but this is a good team, period. The Grizzlies hustle, play smart, and listen to their coach (Brown and GM Jerry West leave them no choice). Again, Memphis won’t slow many people down, preferring instead to force the tempo and simply outscore its opponents. It should work at least as well this year.

Prediction: 52-30.

3. HOUSTON ROCKETS

Coach: Jeff Van Gundy (45-37 in one year with Rockets, 293-209 in eight years overall).

Last Season: 45-37, lost to L.A. Lakers in Western Conference first round.

Projected Starters: G Charlie Ward, G Tracy McGrady, F Jim Jackson, F Juwan Howard, C Yao Ming.

Top Reserves: G Bob Sura, F Maurice Taylor, G Tyronn Lue, C Dikembe Mutombo, F Clarence Weatherspoon, F Bostjan Nachbar.

New Faces: McGrady, Howard, Sura, Lue, Mutombo, G/F Reece Gaines.

Strengths: McGrady isn’t much of a passer or defender, but he will bring George Gervin-like showmanship and scoring to the state of Texas again. He’s vowed to become more of a team player under Van Gundy, and the no-nonsense coach will leave him with little choice. Meanwhile, Yao does everything well enough to be considered the game’s second-best center -- by a landslide. The veteran leadership of Jackson and Howard is extremely underrated.

Weaknesses: Steady point guard play could be a problem, as neither Ward nor Lue are great penetrators or outside shooters. Also, a lot of old, banged-up types will be counted to play key minutes (Mutombo, Jackson, Howard, Taylor).

Outlook: The Yao-McGrady marriage is an intriguing one, and you can bet it will take some time for each to get adjusted to the other’s game. But the Rockets have surrounded their stars with solid role players, and with Van Gundy in charge, this is a team that will play its best when it means the most -- namely, the second half of the season.

Prediction: 48-34.

4. DALLAS MAVERICKS

Coach: Don Nelson (297-229 in seven years with Mavericks, 1,148-858 in 25 years overall).

Last Season: 52-30, lost to Sacramento in Western Conference first round.

Projected Starters: G Jason Terry, G Marquis Daniels, F Michael Finley, F Dirk Nowitzki, C Erick Dampier.

Top Reserves: G/F Jerry Stackhouse, G/F Josh Howard, F Alan Henderson, G Devin Harris-r, C Shawn Bradley.

New Faces: Terry, Dampier, Stackhouse, Henderson, Harris, C Pavel Podkolzin-r.

Strengths: Nowitzki continues to display Larry Bird-like ability (minus the passing skills and winner’s edge), and is Dallas’ version of Kevin Garnett. The addition of Stackhouse means the Mavs are, well, stacked at the wings, as he and Finley can slash and score with the best of ’em. Dampier will be a definite upgrade at center and add the toughness that had been sorely lacking.

Weaknesses: How long does it take for a total overhaul every offseason to have a negative impact? Terry is a fine player, but losing Steve Nash (signed with Phoenix) will hurt team chemistry, as Nash made a living off keeping his teammates happy. All the new faces will make for a slow start.

Outlook: Dallas made lots of moves, and landing Dampier was a coup. But it’s hard to imagine this group being any better than last year’s team, as the scoring off the bench provided by Antawn Jamison will be missed. Mostly, the Mavericks are relying heavily upon a number of young players, two of whom have had one good season (read: Howard and Daniels). That’s always a shaky proposition.

Prediction: 45-37.

5. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Coach: Byron Scott (first year with Hornets, 149-139 in four years overall).

Last Season: 41-41, lost to Miami in Eastern Conference first round.

Projected Starters: G Baron Davis, G David Wesley, F George Lynch, F P.J. Brown, C Jamaal Magliore.

Top Reserves: F Rodney Rogers, G J.R. Smith-r, F David West, G Darrell Armstrong, C/F Chris Andersen, G/F Alex Garcia-r.

New Faces: Rogers, Smith, Andersen, Garcia, G Tim Pickett-r.

Strengths: Davis can be the best player on the floor for long stretches of any given game, regardless of opponent. He’s quick, strong, can drive at will, and has great shooting range. Wesley, Armstrong, Magliore and Brown are all solid veterans who play hard and are just generally reliable. The ultra-athletic Smith looked like the steal of the draft in the preseason and could be starting by the All-Star break.

Weaknesses: Now that Jamal Mashburn will miss at least half the season with another injury, the Hornets are lacking a consistent No. 2 guy to go with Davis. Lynch hustles, but age and injury have made him a non-threat on offense. The bench remains unreliable, with no consistent point-producing or defensive ability.

Outlook: In the East, the Hornets could challenge for a playoff spot. In the West, they’re capable of pulling a few surprises, but not much more. There just isn’t enough for Scott -- or prized pupil Davis -- to work with for anything beyond another .500 season.

Prediction: 37-45.