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By Taylor Agee

Jerry West can't help but look upon the last year as a multitude of progress. In that time, he has brought in a cornerstone -- Mike Miller -- and filled in the roster with a plethora of role players, thereby putting this perpetually scattered team on a line of direction. But in this, the third year we have known the Memphis Grizzlies, are we ready to see a playoff team?

Prior to this summer, it was thought that West would combine the team's expiring contracts after the 2003-2004 season -- Wesley Person, Brevin Knight, ahem Bryant Reeves -- with an effort to move certain players with bloated contracts such as Michael Dickerson in order to make an attempt to sign Kobe Bryant. That plan now looks scrapped, as West went and got James Posey in a multi-million dollar deal and just recently locked up Miller for an additional six years. Besides, there appears to be more to that Kobe guy than meets the eye.

Analyzing the roster as it stands, Pau Gasol is the team's best offensive player, and it would love nothing more than to be able to build around him. But this season is a tell-all season for Gasol, who has made seemingly little improvement in his two NBA seasons; in other words, he came into the league as good as he is now, which is not good enough to be called this team's franchise player, and I'm speaking directly of his defense and inside presence. Pau knows what is expected of him; it's time for him to actually respond to the demands.

If there is a leader of this team on the court, it has to be Jason Williams, who we all should cease calling 'JDub' in respect of his picture-perfect season in 2002-2003. Williams and head coach Hubie Brown mix together like yeast and icing: they're just right for one another. The common misconception about Williams is that he likes to play to the beat of his own drum, when in fact he embraces team concepts and simply becomes frustrated when his teammates do not perform up to their abilities, which -- historically -- has been when he plays erratically. Last season, in what was a revelation of maturity for him, he played under control and when Brown took over, Williams began to accept that his teammates will not make good on every play and as a point guard and team leader, he must deal with that in a professional manner. Going into the new season, Williams is signed long-term, and it is widely thought that in light of Williams' newfound attitude, he could be a mainstay for some time to come.

Then you have your swingman spots, which are as crowded as a truck crossing the border out of Mexico. If the season were to start today, Mike Miller would start at off-guard and James Posey would start at small forward. However, the team also has pinpoint shooter Wesley Person, third year defensive wizard Shane Battier, oft-injured Michael Dickerson, and touted rookies Dahntay Jones and Troy Bell to play these spots. Person sprained his ankle in training camp, but it will only keep him out about a week and although it is highly unlikely that he will start due to the fact that the team wants Miller to start and alongside his offensive capability they want to play a defensive-minded player, he should play a focal role off the bench.

Battier is the real paradox. He was a top 10 draft pick; in two seasons, he's proven that he can effectively guard most NBA players at his position and occasionally he can make an offensive play. But is he invaluable to this team? He saw his minutes go from 40 a night to 30 in his sophomore campaign, and that number figures to go down once again, likely into the 25-per range. However, the reason for that decline in playing time is dubious, as Battier showed immense improvement last season; his shooting percentage went from 43% to 48% (which includes a slight increase in three-point accuracy and a big free throw bump, from 70% to 83%) and in playing ten less minutes a game, he only averaged one less rebound, barely less steals and even managed to average more blocks and cut his turnovers in half. That is what I like to call progression, folks. Where he fits into the Memphis future, I have no accurate guess. But I do know that if he is cast aside, it had better be for honorable reasons.

And then you have Posey: a newcomer; someone who would seemingly be a Jerry West favorite with his hard play and defensive tenacity; and what's more, someone with many similarities to the player he would be replacing (Battier). Everyone in the NBA knows by now that Posey is one tough cookie on the defensive end; the numbers may not exactly reveal it, as he only averages 1.29 steals per game on his career and is not a shot-blocker, but he can guard anybody. The knack on Posey that his offensive tenacity doesn't come anywhere near the nuclear bomb range of what he outputs on defense. Case in point: on a 2002-2003 Denver team where Billy Idol scores more from a mile high than the Nuggets do in a week's worth of games, Posey could only muster 14 points a game. So, at 26 years old and going into his fifth NBA season, is this as good as it gets? Playing on a team that needs his defense could give him an opportunity to highlight his abilities, but if he can't contribute offensively, what was so wrong with Battier in the first place?

Miller is even more frustrating than Gasol. For years, Doc Rivers and John Gabriel believed Mike would blossom into a special NBA player, one with the ability to put up 20 points a game and lead by example on defense. There is no greater tease in the NBA than to sporadically show your talent in such an extreme fashion; Mike can go for 20 one night, then disappear with an 0-for the next. It's time for him to bring home a consistent payday. West clearly believes he will, or else he wouldn't have committed to him for the next six years.

The Grizzly frontcourt is undersized, but it's talented nonetheless. Stromile Swift is still in town, which is rather surprising given that it was widely thought he would be gone by now. The team probably just cannot let go of what could be; even to this day, "The Stro Show" could still be a prime-time event, if he could only get his head focused on the game.

Lorenz Wright must feel like an outsider. Whenever the topic of the Memphis front-line came up, the topic of "must get bigger" always arose, and with Gasol firmly entrenched as the starting power forward, that means Wright is the odd man out. Still, the only threatening addition is newly-acquired Jake Tsakalidis. The chances are good that Big Jake will stumble his way upon serviceable minutes, as this small team needs his big size. But he has few developed skills; he can rebound decently and is a fine muscle-man, but it's absolutely appalling to think how few blocks a man of his wingspan accumulates. In all likelihood, Wright starts at center and plays big minutes against teams without a dominant enforcer, and when one comes along -- a Shaq or Yao Ming or Alonzo Mourning (that sounds weird, doesn't it?) -- then Jake plays to lessen the impact. Hey, it could work. As far as Stro goes, if he knows what's best for him, he'll find a way to earn minutes.

For the first time in a long time, this team will have difficult decisions to make as to who stays on the roster. Assuming nothing changes, Jason Williams, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, Wesley Person, James Posey, Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, and Lorenzen Wright are the guarantees. One has to figure the team will keep energetic fan-favorite Bo Outlaw and Big Jake, which brings the number to 10. The remaining two spots will be between backup point guards Earl Watson and Troy Bell, backup swingman Dahntay Jones, Michael Dickerson and the long-shot, Ryan Humphrey. If Dickerson is healthy, he will make the team; remember, this guy once averaged 18 points a night. However, one must assume that the team will retain both Bell and Jones, as they were both 1st rounders, which would leave Watson and Humphrey out of the mix. My guess is that Dickerson starts the season on IL and both Bell and Jones round out the roster. Having said that, I would be less than surprised to see Watson make the team somehow, as he is more ready to contribute than Bell at point guard.

Will 2003 be a playoff year? Well, if one figures San Antonio, Dallas, Minnesota, Sacramento, and the Lakers to all be playoff locks, that leaves Houston, Memphis, Portland, Phoenix, and Seattle in the hunt for the final three spots. At this point in time, Houston has to be considered a playoff team and it seems like the Blazers always seem to find a way in. Phoenix's star power of Marbury, Marion, and Amare should propel them into the playoffs, as well, which leaves Memphis out in the cold. Then again, injuries, chemistry problems, and flat-out unexplainable things happen in the NBA.

So on that note, why not Memphis?

Taylor Agee, one of the original contributors to InsideHoops.com, is in Memphis and can be reached at crazy7345@hotmail.com.