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/ Oct. 28, 2004

1. Detroit Pistons

Coach: Larry Brown (second year with Pistons, 933-713 in 21 years overall). Last Season: 54-28, won NBA championship.

Projected Starters: G Chauncey Billups, G Richard Hamilton, F Tayshaun Prince, F Rasheed Wallace, C Ben Wallace.

Top Reserves: F Antonio McDyess, G/F Carlos Delfino, G Lindsey Hunter, F/C Derrick Coleman, F Darko Milicic.

New Faces: McDyess, Coleman.

Strengths: Defense, defense and more defense. If you score 90 against the Pistons, it‘s almost as good as a win. Separately, Hamilton and Billups are pretty good NBA players. Together, they‘re All-Stars. Ben Wallace has added some offense to his shotblocking and rebounding ways. Rasheed Wallace became a great locker room guy and played with passion during the title run.

Weaknesses: Despite the addition of McDyess, the bench remains weak. And if McDyess goes down with an injury again, Detroit will have a hard time finding points when the starters need a breather. Also, Ben Wallace remains atrocious from the free-throw line.

Outlook: Unlike last year, the Pistons will be the most targeted team in the league. They didn‘t play “the right way“ as much as Brown would like everyone to believe (pro basketball was supposed to be an exciting, up-tempo game; not the bang-it-out, shut-’em-down style the Pistons employ). But there‘s no question that the Pistons are an unselfish group of winners. As we saw in the Olympics, that kind of team basketball is still very effective.

Prediction: 59-23.

2. Indiana Pacers

Coach: Rick Carlisle (second year with Pacers, 161-85 in three years overall).

Last Season: 61-21, lost to Detroit in Eastern Conference finals.

Projected Starters: G Jamaal Tinsley, G Reggie Miller, F Ron Artest, F Jermaine O’Neal, C Jeff Foster.

Top Reserves: G/F Stephen Jackson, F Austin Croshere, F Jonathan Bender, G Anthony Johnson, F/C Scot Pollard.

New Faces: Jackson, C David Harrison-r, G Eddie Gill, G Rashad Wright-r.

Strengths: Jackson was an excellent addition who will play most of the minutes at shooting guard. He’s nearly as good of a shooter as Miller nowadays, and much more athletic. Artest has promised he’s more mature, and his offense has been almost as fantastic as his defense during the preseason. O’Neal is among the league’s top three power forwards, and practically automatic in the low post -- a rarity in today’s NBA.

Weaknesses: Other than Jackson, who could be starting by midseason, there are no proven or consistent players in reserve. Pollard was a major flop in his first year in Indiana, and Croshere and Bender have been disappointments for their entire careers. Foster is a liability on offense.

Outlook: The Pacers are a 61-win team with something to prove. They’re hungry, and if the key players stay healthy, they are as talented and cohesive a unit as anyone. Bottom line: With another full season to get adjusted to Carlisle’s system, and Jackson providing some much-needed scoring in the backcourt, there’s no reason Indiana can’t win the title.

Prediction: 57-25.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Coach: Paul Silas (second year with Cavaliers, 321-370 in nine years overall).

Last Season: 35-47, did not make playoffs.

Projected Starters: G Jeff McInnis, G Eric Snow, F LeBron James, F Drew Gooden, C Zydrunas Ilgauskus.

Top Reserves: G Lucious Harris, F/C Robert Traylor, G Dajuan Wagner, F Anderson Varejo-r, G/F Luke Jackson-r, F Ira Newble.

New Faces: Snow, Gooden, Harris, Traylor, Varejo, Jackson, G Sasha Pavlovic, F/C Scott Williams.

Strengths: As expected, the addition of James turned Cleveland into a pass-first, ask-questions-later ball club. James’ outside shooting and defense will only get better in his second season. McInnis had the best months of his career after being traded from Portland at midseason, and the addition of Snow gives the Cavaliers an unlikely -- but extremely underrated -- backcourt. When motivated, Ilguaskus can play like the league’s second-best center.

Weaknesses: Defense is a major concern, as only Snow and Newble are good at it with any kind of regularity. Rebounding will also be a problem now that Carlos Boozer is in Utah. Harris is the only real perimeter threat, as it’s too risky to rely on young players like Pavlovic and Jackson.

Outlook: James will be even more dominant now that he has a better grasp of the pro game -- which means Cleveland will rise in the standings. And while he’s providing the highlights, Snow and Williams will supply the professionalism the Cavaliers lacked for most of last season. Throw in the underrated coaching of Silas, and there’s no reason this team can’t win a playoff series or two.

Prediction: 43-39.

4. Milwaukee Bucks

Coach: Terry Porter (second year, 41-41).

Last Season: 41-41, lost to Detroit in Eastern Conference first round.

Projected Starters: G T.J. Ford (when healthy), G Michael Redd, F Keith Van Horn, F Joe Smith, C Dan Gadzuric.

Top Reserves: G/F Desmond Mason, F Toni Kukoc, C Daniel Santiago, G Mike James, F Zaza Pachulia, F Marcus Haislip.

New Faces: G Maurice Williams, F Zendon Hamilton, C Lonnie Jones-r.

Strengths: Redd has become as good of a perimeter shooter as Ray Allen -- except Redd has a better attitude and is more of a team player. Smith and Van Horn are never spectacular, but always solid. Mason and Kukoc are nice guys to have off the bench. Mostly, Porter has the Bucks playing as a unit.

Weaknesses: Gadzuric and Santiago will never ring up any memories of Russell and Chamberlain -- or for that matter, Jack Sikma. Rebounding and low-post defense will continue to be major issues. And until Ford returns, there won’t be anyone to push the ball in what’s supposed to be a high-paced offense.

Outlook: Milwaukee will begin the season without last year’s starting point guard (Ford) and center (Brian Skinner, signed with Philadelphia). That alone will make it very difficult to match last year’s success. So will the fact the Bucks won’t be sneaking up on people this season. But as long as key players like Redd, Mason, and Smith stay focused and healthy, Milwaukee will challenge for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 39-43.

5. Chicago Bulls

Coach: Scott Skiles (19-47 in one year with Bulls, 135-126 in four years overall).

Last Season: 23-59, did not make playoffs.

Projected Starters: G Kirk Hinrich, G Ben Gordon-r, F Andres Nocioni-r, F Tyson Chandler, C Eddy Curry.

Top Reserves: F Luol Deng-r, F/C Antonio Davis, G Eric Piatkowski, F/C Othella Harrington, G Chris Duhon-r.

New Faces: Gordon, Niocini, Deng, Piatkowski, Harrington, Duhon, G Frank Williams.

Strengths: Hinrich and Gordon are two former college All-Americans who form the most talented young backcourt in the league (with the key word being “young”). Deng and Niocini have been outstanding in the preseason -- and the Bulls are starting to play with the intensity Skiles exhibited as an overachieving point guard in the early 1990s.

Weaknesses: Too many to count. Curry and Chandler are entering their fourth season and in their early 20s, but still play like a couple of teenage rookies. Defense, rebounding, and general cohesiveness will all be trouble spots for the league’s most inexperienced team.

Outlook: The Bulls had an excellent draft, and if management gives the team time to develop, it will turn into something special soon. Right now, the occasional upset is all Chicago fans can hope for. But it’s OK, as the Bulls are taking a step back to be better in the long run.

Prediction: 23-59.

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