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NBA Playoffs Preview

 


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| Apr. 22, 2006

The 2005-06 NBA Playoffs begin today and while some things change, others stay the same. As is the norm in recent NBA seasons, the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons are the best the West and East have to offer. And as usual, there are just a select few contenders to those two teams in the playoffs, and then a big handful of squads that are just happy to even qualify for the post-season.

In the West, the Spurs reign supreme. Tony Parker stepped his game up in a big way this season. Manu Ginobili battled injuries and had a rocky go of things. Tim Duncan played semi-hurt all year, and while he was less effective than usual on the offensive side of the floor, his defense is always awesome.

The Dallas Mavericks are also a legit title contender. They were about as good as the Spurs all season and no one should be surprised if they reach the finals. Coach Avery Johnson taught these guys to play defense, raising their level of play over the past season and a half.

In Phoenix, the Suns proved that you can suffer injuries yet keep succeeding if a guy named Steve Nash is your point guard. Also, Shawn "The Matrix" Marion deserves all the credit in the world, doing literally everything a player can do on both ends of the floor.

The Suns may appear to be a true contender to reach the finals. They can outscore anyone, which certainly is important. But in the playoffs, things change, and it's tough to just win with offense. Teams need to make defensive stops. Phoenix's total disinterest in defending anyone may be their downfall come second or third round. They have the potential to go all the way, but without defense they'll probably fall short.

The Denver Nuggets are seeded too high; they got the #3 spot thanks to a weak Northwest division. The Utah Jazz, who finished second in the division, only won half their games and didn't even make the playoffs. Denver isn't a legit contender for the crown this year.

Memphis had a terrific season, and the play of Pau Gasol, along with smart, effective, total team basketball, was successful. But they're a long-shot to go anywhere this post-season.

The Clippers, Lakers and Kings are happy to be in the playoffs and aren't expected to advance past the first round. Though, don't tell that to Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Elton Brand, Sam Cassell and a guy named Kobe Bryant.

Because of the division-based playoff seeding system, the Spurs and Mavericks, should both teams advance past their initial opponent, will meet in the second round. It's a shame, becuase the two teams really deserve in the Western conference finals, not the semi-finals. But the Suns surely aren't complaining.

In the East, Detroit is clearly the best in the conference, and a true title contender. They've won before and have the same starting lineup as they did two seasons ago in their championship season. Although Detroit's bench is weak, the team as a whole relies on balance, so although each starter has to step up every night, no one guy has to play out of his mind for the team to win. Their bench just has to be steady and not blow it for the starters.

The current Pistons, under Flip Saunders, also pack a nice scoring punch that they lacked under Larry Brown in the past. And they still defend as well as before.

Miami, one game away from reaching the NBA Finals last season, made changes. They kept Shaquille O'Neal, Udonis Haslem and Dwyane Wade, removed almost all other key parts, and added Jason Williams, James Posey and Antoine Walker. The team is still a chemistry experiment, but they have the basics down: Give the ball to Shaq inside, or let Wade do his thing from anywhere, and try not to get in the way. It works. Shaq is mortal now, but still a matchup problem. Wade is unguardable and can carry the team all by himself when necessary.

While the Heat aren't on the level of Detroit, San Antonio or Dallas, they're still dangerous and just one level below those top squads.

The New Jersey Nets are extremely streaky. They go undefeated for a few weeks in a row, and then trade wins with losses the rest of the time. If Vince Carter is playing out of his mind and the rest of the team does their usual, the Nets might be able to shoot their way into the second or third round. The big factor in their winning streaks -- shockingly enough -- is defense.

LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers aren't a championship contender. They have decent balance, but until Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Drew Gooden raise their total team play, the Cavs go about as far as LeBron James can carry them. The Wizards may pose a decent challenge right away. If Cleveland survived round 2, it would be a surprise.

Enjoy the playoffs!

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