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NBA Playoffs Preview






| Apr. 20, 2007

nba playoffs previewThe 2007 NBA Playoffs begin Saturday and this year is different than most in that the defending champions aren't even locks to get out of the first round.

Here's InsideHoops.com editor Jeff Lenchiner's raw, unedited, off the top of the head playoff preview. No looking back. No rewording anything. Straight off the dome:

New to following the NBA playoffs? Read this paragraph. Otherwise, skip below: In the playoffs, 16 teams battle it out for the championship in best-of-seven series. Eight teams from the East and eight from the West qualify for the postseason. Teams in the East are seeded 1 through 8. Same with the West. In the first round the 1-seed, the best team record-wise, faces the 8-seed, the worst team to make the playoffs from that conference. The 2-seed faces the 7-seed, and so on. There are four rounds to the playoffs, with the conference finals (two remaining teams in the East, two remaining teams in the West) being the third round. Finally, just one team remains in the East, and one in the West. Those two teams battle for the championship.

I consider the prime championship contenders to all come from the West. The Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs are the best teams in the league. Next comes the Detroit Pistons, and if they can rise to the level they achieved last postseason, the Miami Heat. Slightly below those teams are the Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets. If anyone other than the Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Pistons or Heat wins the championship it would be a total shock. I think whoever comes out of the West will win it.

The champion Miami Heat went 44-38 this season and enter the postseason as the East's 4-seed. They'll face the 5-seed Chicago Bulls, who were generally better than the Heat; though Miami suffered multiple injuries and were without Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal for long stretches. I expect the Heat to survive, but it could be a hard-fought, six or seven game series. And I would not be shocked to see the Bulls advance.

In other first round matchups, the Pistons, led by former Finals MVP Chauncey Billups and fellow championship-winners Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace, should easily handle the Orlando Magic, led by Dwight Howard's inside power and rebounding ability, veteran leadership by Grant Hill, and the inconsistent yet capable point guard play of Jameer Nelson.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, led by all-world superstar LeBron James, faces the injury-riddled Washington Wizards who are playing without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, two of their big three stars. Antawn Jamison is virtually alone out there. While King James has capable teammates in Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and the much-improved Sasha Pavlovic. The Cavs should easily win the series.

New Jersey Nets star Vince Carter faces his former Toronto Raptors team in an intriguing matchup which will be decided by whomever plays the best team basketball. The Raptors are a unit. The Nets often stand flat-footed and watch Vinsanity operate. Jason Kidd is always involved and Richard Jefferson provides scoring punch and versatility, but they need to use Carter in the framework of a total team offense. If he's a solo act, they lose. New Jersey has been without Nenad Krstic all season, and that hurts, but they've had time to get used to it. This series is a tossup. The Raptors are the better team but the Nets have the veteran stars who have done this before. It could go seven games. Nets experience may win.

In the Western conference, the 1-seed Dallas Mavericks, who lost in the finals to the Heat last season, bring the same core back, with a slightly nicer bench. Dirk Nowitzki, who is a top-two MVP candidate this season, remains unguardable, and Josh Howard enjoyed his first year as an All-Star. Although the 8-seed Golden State Warriors owned Dallas during the regular season, there's no reason to think that will carry over into the postseason. I expect the Mavs to win in four or five games.

The 2-seed Phoenix Suns bring the league's most scary offense, and they actually play better defense than most fans think. That isn't saying much, though. They'll face the 7-seed Lakers. The Suns have multiple offensive weapons: two-time MVP Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire can all easily drop 20 points, as can Raja Bell and bench scoring star Leandro Barbosa. The Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and role players. Of course, Kobe often turns into the equivalent of two or three 20-point scorers. But the better team will win this series and that's Phoenix.

The 3-seed San Antonio Spurs, who have already won championships with their current core unit, face the 6-seed Denver Nuggets who are a scarier first round opponent than many may suspect. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson took some time to learn to play together but I believe they have the potential to do damage in the postseason. Marcus Camby's defense will also be key. But the greatness and experience of Tim Duncan, along with the amazing play of young Tony Parker and worldly star Manu Ginobili should be too much for the Nuggets to handle. Don't be shocked if Denver at least puts some fright into the Spurs before being eliminiated.

The 4-seed Utah Jazz, led by power forward Carlos Boozer's scoring and rebounding, the amazingly intelligent point guard play of Deron Williams as well as Mehmet Okur's scoring and Andrei Kirilenko's versatility, face the 5-seed Houston Rockets, who are carried by center Yao Ming and scoring phenom Tracy McGrady. This is an incredible first round matchup and I think it could go seven games. The Jazz play smarter, total team basketball than the Rockets, and I think that'll mean Utah survives.

In the second round, assuming my predictions above hold true, in the East Detroit will face Miami while New Jersey will meet Cleveland, and in the West Dallas will face Utah while San Antonio will battle Phoenix.

I must say, just after typing the above paragraph I really wonder if the Jazz can hold off the Rockets. Houston has Shane Battier. He's the X-factor. Anyway, back to the discussion.

Detroit and Miami should be an epic battle. Predicting it is almost impossible. It all depends on which Shaquille O'Neal shows up. If the real one comes to play, and Dwyane Wade's knee issues haven't resurfaced, the Heat could win. Detroit is the better team, though. Flip a coin.

If New Jersey and Cleveland meet, I give the edge to the Cavs. They're simply the better team this season. Though, again, the Nets have their trio of experienced stars and it's hard to count them out. But they'll probably be sent home.

Dallas against Utah (or Houston) will be fun, but the Mavs are too good for both of those teams in a seven-game series.

It's a shame that the Spurs and Suns will face each other this early in the playoffs. I hope that in the sake of fairness whoever the Mavs face in the second round gives them a serious run for their money. Make Dallas work for it. Don't let Dallas coast to the conference finals while the Spurs and Suns wear each other out. Anyway, San Antonio's defense needs to slow down Phoenix's offense. I predict and hope the series goes seven games. Either team could win. If you force me to choose, I'd go with the Spurs. Very reluctantly. I'd rather just avoid the question and watch. Like you.

In the conference finals, San Antonio meets Dallas while Detroit or Miami faces Cleveland. Yeah, I didn't pick a winner between the Heat and Pistons. If forced I'll go with Detroit.

If the Spur can handle the Suns I think they'll take out the Mavs. While I say the Pistons will handle the Cavs. Detroit's bench turned out better than anyone expected. That'll help a lot.

In the finals, the Spurs (or Suns? Or Mavericks?) will take out the Pistons for the championship.

Series-by-series previews coming to InsideHoops.com this evening.

Post your opinion on the InsideHoops.com NBA forum. Or just read what other fans are saing. Registering a cool nickname for yourself is free. Do it.




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