Lakers-Spurs: A seven game series?
By Lindell Singleton / May
9, 2004
Don't write off the Lakers just yet. There is a lot of basketball to be played, provided the Lakers make immediate tactical adjustments.
It seems that all the Mavericks and Rockets fans have transferred their allegiance to the Spurs. Being in Texas, I am surrounded. I feel like Travis, Crockett and the rest of that Alamo crew with Santa Ana's vengeance pounding at the door. Am I the lone Laker fan in the Lone Star State?
I do, however, want to go on record with some comments about this series and what needs to happen to get things going the Lakers way.
The great bald opinionated one (Charles Barkley, not Shaq) has often said that, "the playoffs don't start until the home team loses a game on its own floor." The Spurs just did what they were supposed to do. (Probability statistics about the Game One winners taking the series, notwithstanding!)
Why are the Lakers in this situation?
The coach of the Rockets (or, Mr. Van Gundy to everyone except Phil Jackson) exposed the Lakers' weaknesses for the rest of the league to see.
Van Gundy's problem was that his point guard was on a different page-- and, he had a real gift for turnovers. Replace Steve Francis with Tony Parker (or even Baron Davis) and the Lakers, most probably, are looking at a first round Game 7.
Fundamentally, what Van Gundy showed is that the Lakers are deficient in transition defense-- and, therefore, susceptible to an uptempo style of play that forces a lots of 'three-on-two," and "two-on-one" fastbreak action with a big man filling one of the wings.
Van Gundy (who we can thank for infecting the Western Conference with an eastern style) is a brilliant basketball mind. He had the plan to beat the Lakers, but not the personnel. Houston will be a team to reckoned with in the very near future.
A People Problem
The Lakers have a personnel problem. Namely, Tyrone Lue isn't there-- and, no one in the front office was willing, I guess, to pursue a "Raja Bell" type defensive minded guard to slow the fleet-footed Western Conference point guards. It's common knowledge that Payton, Rush, nor the beloved Derek Fisher are going to disrupt Tony Parker explosiveness. Parker-- and, to a lesser degree Bibby-- are the Lakers' kryptonite.
The second part of the 'people problem' is that the Lakers have players who are ill-suited to their offensive paradigm. The triangle is most effective when a team has a consistent 'spot-up' a shooter opposite the ball (Paxon, Kerr and Hodges come to mind). And, you've got to have a guy-- other than your main guy-- who can get to the front of the rim... a slasher type.
Well, the Lakers don't consistently get the former and aren't in possession of the latter. An analysis of Phil's substitution pattern indicates that he's always looking for who's hot...for someone... anyone who is going to make shots. That, primarily is why Fisher and Rush got more fourth quarter minutes against Houston. They were making shots and Payton was not-- that's why Medvedenko gets minutes ahead of George and Walton. Slava can make shots.
But Laker perimeter players are not making them consistently. The result is that it's way too easy to double and triple team Bryant-- when the shooters fail, the pressure falls to the one guy who can create his own shot (Bryant). Sadly, Bryant takes a lot of heat for forcing shots, but a closer analysis reveals that the lion's share of his"bad shots" are more a function of discontinuity in the Lakers triangle offense than his desire for personal glory. This guy-- on the court-- is the kind of player everyone who loves the game wants to play alongside. He's fearless, a great passer and willing to take shots when the outcome of the game hangs in question.
San Antonio will continue the double and triple teams on Kobe until one of the other guys consistently makes shots during games.
A slasher-type player would solve this problem. (If Devean George, who has similar body to Lamar Odom, attacked the basket in a similar fashion, the Lakers could easily handle the Spurs). The Lakers don't have players-- other than Kobe-- who will consistently attack the front of the rim. Someone, in addition to Bryant, must break down the Spurs interior defense down with dribble penetration. As I look down the bench, I don't see anyone who is willing to do that.
It is one fabulous perimeter guy (Kobe), and a brilliant post-up player (Shaq), and other guys who, by and large, are 'spot up' shooters
(who aren't consistently making shots.)
Tactical Changes
The Lakers need different people-- or a different philosophy-- but, we're in the middle of the war and bullets are whizzing around our heads. This is no time to attack the Lakers' strategy-- they must make tactical adjustments to win the battle, and ultimately the war. Strategy must be formulated off-season: What kind of team do we want to be? What kind of leadership do we need to have in place? What kind of players do we need to get?
Here is what the Lakers must do to win the battle (with the Spurs) and the war (NBA Finals).
1. The Anti-Tony Parker Plan
Parker makes the Spurs go and the Lakers can't guard him. That is an undeniable truth. So, what do the Lakers do? Make him defend. Wear him down on the defensive end of the floor. And, how do the Lakers do it? Again, an easy answer... post him up. Direct Gary Payton to use his size, strength, and savvy to "wreck" Parker in the low post. Payton has always been a guard who can use 'old-school' tactics to 'back his man down" and score. Parker may be quicker, but Payton, in the post, can score on Parker every possession. Parker would be forced to foul, or get help. Once this happens, guess what? The Spurs must make a defensive decision about continuing to double Kobe. Even Fisher has the body to post Parker. Make Parker defend and watch his shooting percentage go down and his frustration rise.
I love Oscar Robertson. Payton and Fisher should get film of "Big O" and watch how he eviscerated smaller guards in the post. The Lakers can't 'outquick' Parker, but they can make him pay a price when he's on defense. That will disrupt him on offense and net a considerable advantage for Los Angeles.
2. The Enforcer Role
Can we get Rick Fox in the game, please? Rick understands the triangle offense in that weird way that Scottie Pippen understood it-- an intuitive and experiential understanding*. Rick will help the half court stuff flow much more smoothly. And, he'll deliver a few well-placed elbows to Ginobli and Duncan. The San Antonio players don't like it rough-- however Rick Fox is the Rick Mahorn of this Laker crew and he does like it rough. If he's healthy, he needs to play. Fox can sway the tide of the series.
3. Offense, not defense is the real problem
The reality is that the Laker cannot score consistently. And, the lack of energy in their transition defensive (which is more about effort, that strategy) exacerbates this.
The Lakers have to keep Shaq's minutes in the thirty-to-thirty two-minute window, play a line-up that keeps Malone, Fox, Medvedenko, Fisher, and Bryant on the floor. Malone will cause match-up problems for Duncan-- and by going to the high post, will neutralize Duncan "help defense" capabilities. This translates into more "dribble penetration" opportunities for Kobe where the "help" comes from someone other than Duncan.
And, Kobe has shown the aptitude and willingness to get his teammates involved. When he is "breaking the defense down" with dribble penetration, Medvedenko and Fisher will be the recipients of open looks at the basket. Fisher can 'spot up" behind the arc, and Medvedenko (who is an exceptional mid-range jump shooter) can float to the short corner).
Fox, the skilled passer is available to make the essential "ball reversal" pass
to find the open shooter. And, when Fisher and Medvedenko are making open shots,
there'll be less opportunity to "help" on Kobe's dribble penetration. It will
force the Spurs to cover Kobe with one guy-- and, that is what the Lakers want.
(Bruce Bowen may talk a good game about defending Kobe, but who would you put
your money on if they played one-on-one?)
It's more difficult to accomplish this with Shaq in the game because of where he'll post up and the closer proximity of the "help" defender. And, San Antonio's decision to "front" Shaq in the post, and dare the Lakers to throw over the top, is more about having another defender available to "help" on Kobe than it is about slowing down Shaq. I don't think the Spurs are overly concerned about Shaq beating them-- they are worried about Bryant. (Shaq, unfortunately, has become an agent provacateur for the Spurs' cause because of foul shooting and turnovers.)
I like the Lakers chances with a few minor adjustments. San Antonio is a good team, and the defending world champions. They are, however, not a team without weaknesses that can be exploited.
The Lakers must overcome the match-up problems Tony Parker creates, by creating match-up problems for the Spurs. San Antonio has no one to guard Kobe-- so, they bring two or three defenders at him. This must be neutralized.
I think this plan provides real options. Phil, Jimmy... call me today. Life is insufferable for Lakers fans in Texas when the Spurs win. I may be forced to move.
Lindell Singleton is the head basketball coach at Shady Grove Christian Academy in Grand Prairie, Texas. He grew up listening to Laker icon Chick Hearn "high above the Western Sideline at the House that Jack built!" He is a regular contributor to Inside Hoops.
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