Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops

Go Back   Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops > InsideHoops Main Basketball Forums > NBA Forum

NBA Forum NBA Message Board - NBA Fan Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 07-08-2008, 04:45 PM   #121
Big Money Mike
I hit open layups
 
Big Money Mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 164
Big Money Mike has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

I'm a great free throw shooter

hard work and practice, NOT luck, is how I became good at shooting free throws.
Big Money Mike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 04:55 PM   #122
Chicago76
I hit open 5-footers
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 262
Chicago76 has decent reputation
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
Early on, I clearly spelled out that it is assumed the player is doing everything within his control to make the shot.

Are you trying to suggest if the player does everything within his control to make the shot, he'll shoot 100%?

I think you're getting caught up on this "everything within his control" business. I can do everything in my control to maintain my car, but eventually, something will break and I will need a mechanic. I can do everything in my control to not fart in public, but eventually it will happen. I can do everything in my control to not get sick, but sooner or later, I will get sick. It has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with statistical inevitability.
Chicago76 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 04:57 PM   #123
bdreason
Game. Set. Match.
 
bdreason's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: HB, CA
Posts: 21,197
bdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops posterbdreason is considered a brilliant InsideHoops poster
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Maybe if a fly or a gust of wind hits the ball it's luck.


Otherwise it's skill.
bdreason is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 05:30 PM   #124
72-10
Good High School Starter
 
72-10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: DOWNTOWN!
Posts: 905
72-10 has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Collie
No, because like I said, there are certain factors that he can't control. Can you control the air flow? The density of the ring? Fatigue? All these little factors, however seemingly small, can combine to make a missed free throw - even if the player did everything right.

You gotta accept that people are limited and can only have certain control over a given situation. It's not that hard to understand.

Well you also don't have to do everything right to make a free throw... and they usually don't. For instance, too much force is placed behind the ball, or not shot at the ideal trajectory, but it still rims in. There is a margin of error within which the same outcome can still be achieved, which makes it completely different from probability, from rolling a die, where the outcome is definite. Doing enough things wrong in order to miss a free throw is still a direct result of skill, not probability.
72-10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 05:31 PM   #125
72-10
Good High School Starter
 
72-10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: DOWNTOWN!
Posts: 905
72-10 has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago76
I think you're getting caught up on this "everything within his control" business. I can do everything in my control to maintain my car, but eventually, something will break and I will need a mechanic. I can do everything in my control to not fart in public, but eventually it will happen. I can do everything in my control to not get sick, but sooner or later, I will get sick. It has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with statistical inevitability.

Yeah, Truck is apparently unfamiliar with the concept of human error. Humans commit errors, a pair of dice don't.
72-10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 06:15 PM   #126
Truck
I type retarded stuff for the fun of it
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 104
Truck has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Money Mike
I'm a great free throw shooter

hard work and practice, NOT luck, is how I became good at shooting free throws.
That's another subject. Do you ever wonder why sometimes you make shots and sometimes you miss - even though you're doing everything in your power to make the shot?
Truck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 06:18 PM   #127
72-10
Good High School Starter
 
72-10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: DOWNTOWN!
Posts: 905
72-10 has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

:stewie
72-10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 06:27 PM   #128
Truck
I type retarded stuff for the fun of it
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 104
Truck has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72-10
Well you also don't have to do everything right to make a free throw... and they usually don't. For instance, too much force is placed behind the ball, or not shot at the ideal trajectory, but it still rims in. There is a margin of error within which the same outcome can still be achieved, which makes it completely different from probability, from rolling a die, where the outcome is definite. Doing enough things wrong in order to miss a free throw is still a direct result of skill, not probability.
Either way, there is a certain probability for the player to make the free throw. No matter how much the player tries to exert complete control over his shot, there are variances that he can't control. Thus, he shoots slightly below 100%. What makes some players 95% and others just 85% is skill. But what makes that occasional shot by the 95% shooter to not go in is due to variances in his motion that he has no control over. If he has control over this, then like a machine, he would make 100% of his shots. So if the probability of him making the free throw is 95%, then it's no different than if he were to draw a marble out of a bag that had 19 blue marbles and one red marble.
Truck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 06:28 PM   #129
Truck
I type retarded stuff for the fun of it
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 104
Truck has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72-10
Yeah, Truck is apparently unfamiliar with the concept of human error. Humans commit errors, a pair of dice don't.
Once again you're missing the point. The human error is what brings the % from 100 down to 95. Likewise, the number of blue marbles among the 20 is brought down from 20 to 19, with one red ball replacing the removed blue ball.
Truck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 06:29 PM   #130
72-10
Good High School Starter
 
72-10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: DOWNTOWN!
Posts: 905
72-10 has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
Either way, there is a certain probability for the player to make the free throw. No matter how much the player tries to exert complete control over his shot, there are variances that he can't control. Thus, he shoots slightly below 100%. What makes some players 95% and others just 85% is skill. But what makes that occasional shot by the 95% shooter to not go in is due to variances in his motion that he has no control over. If he has control over this, then like a machine, he would make 100% of his shots. So if the probability of him making the free throw is 95%, then it's no different than if he were to draw a marble out of a bag that had 19 blue marbles and one red marble.

The probability of making a free throw is never set. The probability of drawing a certain combination of colored marbles is always set.
72-10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 07:47 PM   #131
Truck
I type retarded stuff for the fun of it
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 104
Truck has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72-10
The probability of making a free throw is never set. The probability of drawing a certain combination of colored marbles is always set.
While the probability of making a free throw may not actually be known, it does exist.

I can see what you're doing. You're making feeble attempts to discredit me by trying to show that some of the ways the marble draw and the free throw pct are different. Well, you know what, just as the true free throw pct may not be known, the probability of drawing the blue marble doesn't even need to be known. As long as the percentages are identical, then drawing the marble is essentially the same as shooting the free throw.
Truck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 08:07 PM   #132
Valliant13
NBA lottery pick
 
Valliant13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 4,023
Valliant13 is considered somewhat coolValliant13 is considered somewhat coolValliant13 is considered somewhat cool
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JordanL


Okay, I thought that would be enough but I'm gonna have to explain this completely.

You have a comprehension problem. You are trying to simplify something too far, you are confusing statistics and probability (not the same thing), and you are trying to use stats to answer a physics question.

To answer the question you are asking adequately, go to your local college and take about 6 terms of physics, and get through the math class titled "Linear Algebra".

We're at an impass here. I could explain exactly what you're asking, but you literally wouldn't understand the answer.

Unless you've already gone through these classes and thus have the tools to understand the answer, in which case you have no reason to ask the question.

I will, however, try to give you a stop-gap solution.

Think of a series of lightbulbs. Let's say, 100 lightbulbs controlled by 100 different switches. At each of these switches is a different person.

Let's then pretend that they need to turn them on in a specific order, in a low enough time, to accomplish something. This is a very rough analogy for the many nerve signals needed for something complex like a free throw.

Now, assuming they all know their timing and have practiced extensively, they might be able to turn on fast enough, in the right order, fairly often.

But, with 100 different people at 100 different switches, eventually someone will just barely go out of turn, or just barely go too slow.

Perhaps the Seratonin levels in their nerves dropped because of something they had for lunch, or maybe one of them has cancer which throws off a clot that causes a seizure, or maybe they breathe extra deep, causing the oxygen level in the blood to rise, sending a signal from the heart to the brain that ever so slightly slows down the signal to the hand to turn on the switch. Whatever the reason, and there is a reason, eventually someone will flip their switch wrong.

Similarly, it is impossible for a person to get the nerve signals required to a free throw perfect every single time, and it has nothing to do with luck. Luck is simply a word for physics that we don't understand.

When a player says it was a lucky roll, what they are actually describing is the miniscule way their finger tips shot the ball, adding the unique spin, inclination and power combination that resulted in the shot. They have no way, however, of describing this in asbolute terms however.

Pulling marbles is pure probability. There is no variability in the action, there is simply variability in the quantum state of the marbles, and the quantum state of the basketball is never in question, eliminating what you so elloquently put as "luck".

EDIT:

Another class which might help you is biochemistry.



That was a tremendous explanation. You must work with children, or students, to have the patience to give that fine an answer, to this poor a question.

Last edited by Valliant13 : 07-08-2008 at 08:29 PM.
Valliant13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2008, 08:41 PM   #133
Truck
I type retarded stuff for the fun of it
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 104
Truck has an OK reputation so far
Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valliant13


That was a tremendous explanation. You must work with children, or students, to have the patience to give that fine an answer, to this poor a question.
I don't need to take linear algebra or six semesters of physics to understand this. It's not the amount of education one has that would help them understand this. It's all about common sense.

If situation A has a 95% probability and situation B has a 95% probability, then in each case, on average, you'll succeed 19 times out of 20.

So if the free throw pct is 95% and the marble bag contains 19 blue marbles and one red marble, then from a probability standpoint, shooting the free throw is no different than drawing the marble out of the bag.
Truck is offline   Reply With Quote
This NBA Basketball News Website Sponsored by:
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:30 PM.




NBA Basketball Forum Key Links:
InsideHoops Home
NBA Rumors
Basketball Blog
NBA Daily Recaps
NBA Videos
Fantasy Basketball
NBA Mock Draft
NBA Free Agents
All-Star Weekend
---
High School Basketball
Streetball
---
InsideHoops Twitter
Search Our Site













Powered by vBulletin Version 3.5.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd. Terms of Use/Service | Privacy Policy