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Old 07-07-2008, 04:21 PM   #31
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lilojmayo
lbj will never be a good FT shooter just on the fact that he never actual looks at the rim until he releases kids hell even adults the main part at hitting FTs is actually look at the rim the whole time great freethrows never look down unless for like 1 or 2 dribbles if you dont believe me look at a good FT shooter like Kobe or Ray Allen then look at a bad Free Throw shooter like LBJ and ull tell the big difference
Not trying to get off track here but ummm, LeBron's not a bad free throw shooter. Compared to NBA Stars maybe, but he's not a 'bad' free throw shooter. And he obviously can improve his mechanics, he's not always going to be a bad free throw shooter because of not looking at the basket long enough. It's not like he's going to do that the rest of his life.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:27 PM   #32
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
Let's take a guy who shoots 95% from the line. Let's also assume that 100% of the time, he does everything within his power to make the shot. That means when he does everything within his power to make the shot, it will go in 19 times out of 20. How is this any different than if I have 20 marbles in a bag, 19 of which are blue and one of which is red and I am to draw a marble each time?

It's not any different. Yet in the latter example, you would be quick to say it's luck that you don't draw the red. Or is it the chaos theory that determines if you draw a blue or red marble?



Okay, I thought that would be enough but I'm gonna have to explain this completely.

You have a comprehension problem. You are trying to simplify something too far, you are confusing statistics and probability (not the same thing), and you are trying to use stats to answer a physics question.

To answer the question you are asking adequately, go to your local college and take about 6 terms of physics, and get through the math class titled "Linear Algebra".

We're at an impass here. I could explain exactly what you're asking, but you literally wouldn't understand the answer.

Unless you've already gone through these classes and thus have the tools to understand the answer, in which case you have no reason to ask the question.

I will, however, try to give you a stop-gap solution.

Think of a series of lightbulbs. Let's say, 100 lightbulbs controlled by 100 different switches. At each of these switches is a different person.

Let's then pretend that they need to turn them on in a specific order, in a low enough time, to accomplish something. This is a very rough analogy for the many nerve signals needed for something complex like a free throw.

Now, assuming they all know their timing and have practiced extensively, they might be able to turn on fast enough, in the right order, fairly often.

But, with 100 different people at 100 different switches, eventually someone will just barely go out of turn, or just barely go too slow.

Perhaps the Seratonin levels in their nerves dropped because of something they had for lunch, or maybe one of them has cancer which throws off a clot that causes a seizure, or maybe they breathe extra deep, causing the oxygen level in the blood to rise, sending a signal from the heart to the brain that ever so slightly slows down the signal to the hand to turn on the switch. Whatever the reason, and there is a reason, eventually someone will flip their switch wrong.

Similarly, it is impossible for a person to get the nerve signals required to a free throw perfect every single time, and it has nothing to do with luck. Luck is simply a word for physics that we don't understand.

When a player says it was a lucky roll, what they are actually describing is the miniscule way their finger tips shot the ball, adding the unique spin, inclination and power combination that resulted in the shot. They have no way, however, of describing this in asbolute terms however.

Pulling marbles is pure probability. There is no variability in the action, there is simply variability in the quantum state of the marbles, and the quantum state of the basketball is never in question, eliminating what you so elloquently put as "luck".

EDIT:

Another class which might help you is biochemistry.

Last edited by JordanL : 07-07-2008 at 04:31 PM.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:29 PM   #33
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sroek
Shooting free throws isn't so much skill or luck, but rather a mental thing...

You should already know that by now.
I don't think you understood my original point/question.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:34 PM   #34
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
I don't think you understood my original point/question.

You asked if someone missed a free throw, even though he did "everything in his power" in an attempt to make one, then he wouldn't have done "everything in his power" to make one. There's no other mysterious factor that causes a missed free throw other than the person who shot it.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:35 PM   #35
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JordanL


Okay, I thought that would be enough but I'm gonna have to explain this completely.

You have a comprehension problem. You are trying to simplify something too far, you are confusing statistics and probability (not the same thing), and you are trying to use stats to answer a physics question.

To answer the question you are asking adequately, go to your local college and take about 6 terms of physics, and get through the math class titled "Linear Algebra".

We're at an impass here. I could explain exactly what you're asking, but you literally wouldn't understand the answer.

Unless you've already gone through these classes and thus have the tools to understand the answer, in which case you have no reason to ask the question.

I will, however, try to give you a stop-gap solution.

Think of a series of lightbulbs. Let's say, 100 lightbulbs controlled by 100 different switches. At each of these switches is a different person.

Let's then pretend that they need to turn them on in a specific order, in a low enough time, to accomplish something. This is a very rough analogy for the many nerve signals needed for something complex like a free throw.

Now, assuming they all know their timing and have practiced extensively, they might be able to turn on fast enough, in the right order, fairly often.

But, with 100 different people at 100 different switches, eventually someone will just barely go out of turn, or just barely go too slow.

Perhaps the Seratonin levels in their nerves dropped because of something they had for lunch, or maybe one of them has cancer which throws off a clot that causes a seizure, or maybe they breathe extra deep, causing the oxygen level in the blood to rise, sending a signal from the heart to the brain that ever so slightly slows down the signal to the hand to turn on the switch. Whatever the reason, and there is a reason, eventually someone will flip their switch wrong.

Similarly, it is impossible for a person to get the nerve signals required to a free throw perfect every single time, and it has nothing to do with luck. Luck is simply a word for physics that we don't understand.

When a player says it was a lucky roll, what they are actually describing is the miniscule way their finger tips shot the ball, adding the unique spin, inclination and power combination that resulted in the shot. They have no way, however, of describing this in asbolute terms however.

Pulling marbles is pure probability. There is no variability in the action, there is simply variability in the quantum state of the marbles, and the quantum state of the basketball is never in question, eliminating what you so elloquently put as "luck".
You have yet to show that the red & blue marbles in the bag is any different than the player shooting free throws. As long as the ratio of blue to total marbles is identical to a player's FT pct, then there is no difference between the two.

Once again, if when I go to the line and do everything in my power to make the shot, I shoot 95%, how is that any different than if I have a bag of marbles, 19 of which are blue and one of which is red? Each have a predefined probability.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:36 PM   #36
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sroek
You asked if someone missed a free throw, even though he did "everything in his power" in an attempt to make one, then he wouldn't have done "everything in his power" to make one. There's no other mysterious factor that causes a missed free throw other than the person who shot it.
It is presupposed that he is doing everything in his power to make it. When I talk about 95%, I'm talking about 95% success when he does everything in his power to make it.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:44 PM   #37
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Kind of a retarded question.

That's like asking if it's luck to know your multiplication tables as a child. No it's not luck, it's a skill you aquire, something you learn over time. Occasionally though, you will slip up, lose concentration, and mess up, writing down 20 when you clearly see that it's 4x4 which obviously equals 16, but in the heat of the moment, say if you're being timed and are under pressure, you will slip up and accidentally write 20 not even noticing that you messed up.

It's just a lack of concentration, that's all.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:44 PM   #38
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
You have yet to show that the red & blue marbles in the bag is any different than the player shooting free throws. As long as the ratio of blue to total marbles is identical to a player's FT pct, then there is no difference between the two.

Once again, if when I go to the line and do everything in my power to make the shot, I shoot 95%, how is that any different than if I have a bag of marbles, 19 of which are blue and one of which is red? Each have a predefined probability.



This is what I was talking about. You are ignorant and unable to accept the answer from those who aren't. That's not a good combination.

Probability is a description of a reality, not a dictation of that reality.

You are confusing cause and effect.

Probability does not cause you to conform to it... rather the opposite. Probability conforms to you.

The marbles question is a question about quantum mechanics and statistics. The free throw question is a question of biochemistry and applied physics.

They are not in any way, shape or form comparible.

As I said in the previous post, there is no variation in the act of pulling a marble, only in the outcome. It is not a cause and effect relationship.

In free throw shooting there is variation in the act of shooting, and the outcome. Thus a cause and effect relationship.

I was not joking when I told you to go take some college classes. There is no possible way for me to explain this to you short of teaching you several years of applied sciences.
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Old 07-07-2008, 04:47 PM   #39
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

it's skill, the same way players shoot them with their eyes close or left handed in *entertaining* situations

luck would be a gambling sport, basketball is a game based on skill

however, if you were to bank it in every time, it would make the question unaskable
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:00 PM   #40
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
You have yet to show that the red & blue marbles in the bag is any different than the player shooting free throws. As long as the ratio of blue to total marbles is identical to a player's FT pct, then there is no difference between the two.

Once again, if when I go to the line and do everything in my power to make the shot, I shoot 95%, how is that any different than if I have a bag of marbles, 19 of which are blue and one of which is red? Each have a predefined probability.
WTH are these ppl arguing about. To get to 95% FT you need a lot of skill and practice. To get from 95% to 99.99999999% you need even much more skill, which you may never acquire in this lifetime. That's the difference between making free throws and getting pebbles (which require no skill). One you can improve on and the other you can't. Thus one is skill and the other is luck.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:02 PM   #41
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamgine
WTH are these ppl arguing about. To get to 95% FT you need a lot of skill and practice. To get from 95% to 99.99999999% you need even much more skill, which you may never acquire in this lifetime. That's the difference between making free throws and getting pebbles (which require no skill). One you can improve on and the other you can't. Thus one is skill and the other is luck.

He's confusing statistics, probability, and cause & effect.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:23 PM   #42
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

come to think of it, there might be some instances of luck.

say when someone makes a banked 3-pointer. right after the release, the ball was way off the intentional trajectory and it should really had been a brick but somehow it went in.

so if someone makes a banked free throw with no intention of banking it in the first place, is that luck or skill?

you can say the dumb ass just overthrew an ugly ass rainbow that somehow hit the backboard at a miraculous angle, or maybe say that it was still skill because even though he was off, he still did enough right things to overcome the error.

but man, this is really off-season when we're this silly thread gets so much discussion.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:24 PM   #43
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by catzhernandez
Kind of a retarded question.

That's like asking if it's luck to know your multiplication tables as a child. No it's not luck, it's a skill you aquire, something you learn over time. Occasionally though, you will slip up, lose concentration, and mess up, writing down 20 when you clearly see that it's 4x4 which obviously equals 16, but in the heat of the moment, say if you're being timed and are under pressure, you will slip up and accidentally write 20 not even noticing that you messed up.

It's just a lack of concentration, that's all.
What if despite doing everything in your power to have full concentration and to always select the right answer, you occasionally screw up. Let's say you screw up one time in 100 when you're doing everything in your power to not screw up. Yet you screw up 1% of the time. How is that any different than having a bag of 100 marbles, 99 of which are blue and one of which is red?
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:26 PM   #44
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck
What if despite doing everything in your power to have full concentration and to always select the right answer, you occasionally screw up. Let's say you screw up one time in 100 when you're doing everything in your power to not screw up. Yet you screw up 1% of the time. How is that any different than having a bag of 100 marbles, 99 of which are blue and one of which is red?

Because the screw up is the result of a lapse in ability, while the marble is simply pulling an object out of a bag.

I've answered this three times.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:29 PM   #45
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Default Re: Shooting free throws - skill or luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JordanL


This is what I was talking about. You are ignorant and unable to accept the answer from those who aren't. That's not a good combination.

Probability is a description of a reality, not a dictation of that reality.

You are confusing cause and effect.

Probability does not cause you to conform to it... rather the opposite. Probability conforms to you.

The marbles question is a question about quantum mechanics and statistics. The free throw question is a question of biochemistry and applied physics.

They are not in any way, shape or form comparible.

As I said in the previous post, there is no variation in the act of pulling a marble, only in the outcome. It is not a cause and effect relationship.

In free throw shooting there is variation in the act of shooting, and the outcome. Thus a cause and effect relationship.

I was not joking when I told you to go take some college classes. There is no possible way for me to explain this to you short of teaching you several years of applied sciences.
I know far too well what I'm talking about. In each case, there is a 95% chance of a positive result. And in each case, although it might not be known to all, the 95% chance is presupposed.

If you go to the free throw line and your percentage (when you do everything in your power to make it) is 95% - whether you know it or not - there is a 95% chance you'll make the free throw. If you grab a marble out of a bag that contains 19 blue marbles and one red marble, there is a 95% chance you'll grab the blue marble.

This is common sense and not something that requires a course in applied science to understand.
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