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Old 04-11-2013, 12:38 PM   #151
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by NumberSix
Remember the Kobe foul at the end of the Kings game where nobody even touched him? People went freaking crazy about that. That's not unusual at all by KD standards. I constantly see him just dribbling near the top of the key and the whistle blows out of the blue. I'm like "what the hell did I miss?". When they show the replay, there was literally nothing. I'm absolutely lost as to why they randomly blowed their whistle.

My biggest problem with OKC is that the refs make it VERY clear that the opposing team is NOT going to be allowed to play the same defense as hacking-ass OKC.

The problem with first-hand accounts like this is that it's hard to eliminate confirmation bias. You tend to remember things that confirm your beliefs and you forget those that dispel them. Unless you sit there and document every foul call on Durant over a large enough sample size of games, saying things like "I see him get to the line on BS fouls all the time" means nothing.

I watch Knicks games all the time and I feel like half the calls against Melo are bullshit. But that's because I don't care to remember the ones where he actually gets clobbered.

You need to back it up with something quantitative and substantive. That's what DMavs is saying.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:37 PM   #152
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by DMAVS41
I understand all that and I don't think really any of your post refutes what I'm saying. In fact, I agree with a lot of it. Our difference is essentially that you don't think Durant deserves it...while I think he has a skill/ability that gets him to the line more often. Really, you do to, you just don't like it.

Durant has jumped up his free throws this year because he's trying to get to the line more. It's obvious watching him play. He's cut down on long jumpers and threes....he's taking 1 less three and 1 less long jumper per game. So his fga are really the same in terms of your fga vs fta rate theory. He's just removed two bad shots a game. But the main thing is that he's trying to get to the line more. That is the difference between Harden/Durant and Melo/Kobe...the first pairing plays to get fouled more often. I think we can all agree on that...and it's something that Durant, at least imo, has been trying to do all year to become more efficient...and he has. So I don't think it's crazy to see a player go to the line roughly 1 more time per game when said player is trying to do that.

I didn't say I could prove anything. I said that logic leads you to a few things;

Minutes evened up takes Melo up .3 fta per game
The bonus thing has some impact. We don't know how much, but it definitely matters that the Thunder spend more time in the bonus and shoot 1.5 more free throws per qtr....
Techs matter. Who knows how much, but even if it were just 20 or 25 extra a year...that makes up .3 per game roughly

So, my point, is that it's a marginal difference...which you claimed otherwise solely based on fga. That was my beef. Even if you conservatively take the above into account. You are going from a 1.8 difference to 1.0 difference per game...and that has nothing to do with the players...just situations.

Then you said that Durant was better at drawing fouls. That is why I asked how much better. Because if he's 20 percent better...that could easily lead to an extra free throw or two a game.

So if you put them in similar team situations and you'd see roughly a 1 free throw difference per game...and Durant is better. I don't see the big deal. And that is just Melo. Kobe shoots 2 less shots per game than melo...so the margins are even smaller on that comparison.

If you went solely by fga...then Durant would be shooting at a much higher rate, but that metric is merely one of many factors and you treated it as the only one...or at least the main one. And the evidence just doesn't show that. Just like shots at the rim...they matter, but not nearly as much as you say given the evidence.

How is 8.4 still excessive? That would mean Durant goes to the line .4 more times a game than Melo. If you admit Durant is better at getting to the line...I don't see how a mere .8 difference on free throws is that big of a deal.

But honestly...the whole fga thing skewed the debate.

Here is the simple truth that honestly doesn't need much context. In the same number of minutes played per game. Durant shoots about 1.5 more free throws per game. Which is exactly within the normal range for a player you claim is better at getting to the line and, in my opinion, plays to get to the line more than Melo does.

Factor in things like techs and the bonus...and you shrink the number further.

Now, if you don't think Durant is better at getting to the line...then you would have more of reason to take your position. But it seemed to me that you agreed he was and just thought he got there too often based on a fga vs fta rate that is inherently flawed and missing way too much to solely go by.

And I never said Durant doesn't get the benefit of some calls for his frame and all the things you said. All of those things go into making him better at getting to the line. He uses them to his advantage. That is like saying Lebron dunks so often because of his size and strength...well...yes...he uses what he has to his advantage. Durant is tall, long, and skinny...and doesn't absorb contact the same way Melo does. And he combines all of that with selling calls more often and better.

So I'm stuck still being confused. Said player plays more minutes, shoots more techs, his team is in the bonus more often, tries to get to the line more often, and is better at selling calls...and it is unreasonable for said player to take roughly .9 more trips to the line per game?

I don't see the big deal. You watch any Thunder or Knicks game....and you are going to see Durant on the court 1.5 more minutes per game...and watch him take 1.8 more free throws per game. Which is going to the line .9 more times per game on average. That just isn't a big enough gap to warrant the outrage. Remove the extra free throws and all you would see is Durant taking an extra shot or two a game. His ppg would stay the same and his fg% might drop from like 50.6 to like 50.3. So I just don't see the issue. The only time this really would be a problem would be if you thought Durant should only be shooting like 6 free throws a game. But you think he should be shooting, i'm assuming, around 8 a game.

And that was the point of this thread. Is Durant only a good scorer because of his fta. If Durant and Melo shot the same percentage from the line, Durant would be getting 1.6 more ppg than Melo from the line.

Even if we exclude FGA. And to some extent that's valid(not completely though because Durant draws fouls on jumpers too) but we don't need to go in circles about that. It's still almost 2 extra FTA per game. And he's tried to draw fouls for years, and also gotten a significant amount questionable calls for quite some time. I remember Kevin Garnett saying something about this in 2010.

Even if we exclude FGA. And to some extent that's valid(not completely though because Durant draws fouls on jumpers too) but we don't need to go in circles about that. It's still almost 2 extra FTA per game. Which is really big difference when talking about averages. And he's tried to draw fouls for years, and also gotten a significant amount questionable calls for quite some time. I remember Kevin Garnett saying something about this in 2010.

I don't agree with these sorts of adjustments either, especially per minute adjustments which are very flawed. And until we have stats for the technical fouls, it's impossible to make any sort of adjustment there. I doubt that would be much of a difference either.

I will concede certain things such as Durant's length giving him an advantage as far as drawing fouls going to the basket, and that he uses his body better to sell these. Melo doesn't always do this, although Melo is quite good at getting players to go for his pump fake when taking mid-range shots.

You admitted Durant's frame gives him an advantage, but that's not a skill, and being skinny doesn't make the foul any more deserved. I don't think it's a conspiracy, just that the refs are constantly fooled by that, and how it looks at times when he twists his body as his shot is getting contested and misses a shot most expect him to make.

Selling the calls is smart, but it doesn't mean he's actually getting fouled on all of those plays. That's my point. He's not the only one guilty of this. You brought up Harden and Martin as well.

It's not just about the numbers either. When I watch both play I see players allowed to Melo really physically, and I just don't see the same applied to Durant. Don't you think there's a reason so many people talk about Durant getting generous calls?

I never agreed with the opinion that Durant is only a good scorer because of that. In fact, I said that earlier. Nobody worth listening would suggest Durant is just a product of the refs, or that he's anything less than an elite scorer regardless of the calls. All you have to do is look at the facts that he's an elite shooter from everywhere and can catch and shoot, or shoot off the dribble, move without the ball and handle the ball very well for a 6'10" player. I'm not ignorant to these things and wouldn't take those things away from Durant.
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Old 04-11-2013, 07:40 PM   #153
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Simple. Minutes should be equal...

Why should minutes be equalized but not FGA? At least equalizing FGA gives you a better picture of a player's ability to get to the line. Equalizing minutes does almost nothing, as minutes played have no (obvious)bearing on the frequency with which a player gets to the line; all they do is increase or decrease the raw totals.

Quote:
The two leaders in free throw attempts this year take much less fga than Melo.
Exactly, that's the point. Those two players are much better at getting to the line than Anthony or Lebron. That's what sparked this debate in the first place.

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Minutes played should be even. That is just common sense.
Common sense or not, it's all the same, so I guess I don't really see the point. That's part of what makes the ratio a more worthwhile statistic than just the raw number.

Quote:
My god people. Melo takes 4 more shots per game from 16 feet and beyond. Stop acting like those matter at all.
Can't the opposite be said of Lebron and Durant? You make a good point here for one comparison, yet you shoot yourself in the foot for another.
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Old 04-11-2013, 08:28 PM   #154
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Durant is the most kid-gloves reffed player in the NBA. It is what it is. The refs make it VERY clear to the opposing teams defense to "BACK THE FCUK OFF". We all watch the game. We all know it's true.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:21 PM   #155
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaqAttack3234
Even if we exclude FGA. And to some extent that's valid(not completely though because Durant draws fouls on jumpers too) but we don't need to go in circles about that. It's still almost 2 extra FTA per game. And he's tried to draw fouls for years, and also gotten a significant amount questionable calls for quite some time. I remember Kevin Garnett saying something about this in 2010.

Even if we exclude FGA. And to some extent that's valid(not completely though because Durant draws fouls on jumpers too) but we don't need to go in circles about that. It's still almost 2 extra FTA per game. Which is really big difference when talking about averages. And he's tried to draw fouls for years, and also gotten a significant amount questionable calls for quite some time. I remember Kevin Garnett saying something about this in 2010.

I don't agree with these sorts of adjustments either, especially per minute adjustments which are very flawed. And until we have stats for the technical fouls, it's impossible to make any sort of adjustment there. I doubt that would be much of a difference either.

I will concede certain things such as Durant's length giving him an advantage as far as drawing fouls going to the basket, and that he uses his body better to sell these. Melo doesn't always do this, although Melo is quite good at getting players to go for his pump fake when taking mid-range shots.

You admitted Durant's frame gives him an advantage, but that's not a skill, and being skinny doesn't make the foul any more deserved. I don't think it's a conspiracy, just that the refs are constantly fooled by that, and how it looks at times when he twists his body as his shot is getting contested and misses a shot most expect him to make.

Selling the calls is smart, but it doesn't mean he's actually getting fouled on all of those plays. That's my point. He's not the only one guilty of this. You brought up Harden and Martin as well.

It's not just about the numbers either. When I watch both play I see players allowed to Melo really physically, and I just don't see the same applied to Durant. Don't you think there's a reason so many people talk about Durant getting generous calls?

I never agreed with the opinion that Durant is only a good scorer because of that. In fact, I said that earlier. Nobody worth listening would suggest Durant is just a product of the refs, or that he's anything less than an elite scorer regardless of the calls. All you have to do is look at the facts that he's an elite shooter from everywhere and can catch and shoot, or shoot off the dribble, move without the ball and handle the ball very well for a 6'10" player. I'm not ignorant to these things and wouldn't take those things away from Durant.


So we agree on everything essentially....except I don't think 1.8 free throws a game difference is a big deal...and you do.

I agree that we need the numbers on everything, but my point was that shooting more techs and spending more time in the bonus matters. Especially when I'd imagine Durant gets more off the ball fouls because he's such a great shooter and players have to stay attached to him.

Of course Melo and Kobe can shoot, but Durant is on another level as a shooter. So when you combine that kind of shooting with his ability to put the ball on the floor...you are going to see a lot of fouls.

And then if you factor in what we agreed upon...that he's better at drawing fouls and he tries to do it more often...then you get what you have.

Being skinny and frail is not a skill. I never said it was....I said Durant uses that to his advantage. No different than Melo using his strength around the rim when he rebounds his own misses. A guy like Durant wouldn't be as good at that because he'd get bumped off his spot more.

I think you enter a very dangerous area when you start to try and breakdown a player acting like what type of body and athleticism they possess isn't part of their game.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:23 PM   #156
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DatAsh
Why should minutes be equalized but not FGA? At least equalizing FGA gives you a better picture of a player's ability to get to the line. Equalizing minutes does almost nothing, as minutes played have no (obvious)bearing on the frequency with which a player gets to the line; all they do is increase or decrease the raw totals.


Exactly, that's the point. Those two players are much better at getting to the line than Anthony or Lebron. That's what sparked this debate in the first place.


Common sense or not, it's all the same, so I guess I don't really see the point. That's part of what makes the ratio a more worthwhile statistic than just the raw number.


Can't the opposite be said of Lebron and Durant? You make a good point here for one comparison, yet you shoot yourself in the foot for another.


Easy. Nobody is making you take shots when you are on the court...and fga are not a direct correlation to fta...as I showed. Minutes being equal simply give the players the same chances to be on the court. I'm not saying minutes determine fta...but that it gives the players the same amount of time on the court. It should be obvious why that should be equal.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:24 PM   #157
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Old 04-11-2013, 10:53 PM   #158
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Easy. Nobody is making you take shots when you are on the court...and fga are not a direct correlation to fta...as I showed. Minutes being equal simply give the players the same chances to be on the court. I'm not saying minutes determine fta...but that it gives the players the same amount of time on the court. It should be obvious why that should be equal.

That's not the point. The point is that equalizing minutes does nothing but increase or decrease the raw totals. You addressed none of the points I made.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:56 PM   #159
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Can you imagine if LeBron got half as many FTs as Durant?
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:56 PM   #160
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by DMAVS41
and fga are not a direct correlation to fta

This statement just shows a lack of understanding.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:58 PM   #161
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Can you imagine if LeBron got half as many FTs as Durant?

He actually already gets more than half as many FTs as Durant. You're a b1tch.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:59 PM   #162
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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He actually already gets more than half as many FTs as Durant. You're a b1tch.


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Old 04-11-2013, 11:02 PM   #163
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by DatAsh
That's not the point. The point is that equalizing minutes does nothing but increase or decrease the raw totals. You addressed none of the points I made.

I'm not trying to affect anything. I'm saying that the players should be given the same amount of time on the court.

Stop pretending like fga mean anything. They don't. I'm not saying minutes are an indicator of anything. I'm saying that the opportunity to get fouled per game should be the same.

The only way to equalize that is to have them on the court the same amount of time.

Your other points don't make sense...
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:06 PM   #164
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DatAsh
This statement just shows a lack of understanding.

What are you talking about.

Harden, Durant, and Kobe all shoot more free throws than Melo. Yet Melo takes more shots than all of them. He also takes more shots at the rim than all of them.

The two arguments your side posted were shots at the rim and overall fga. And they aren't good indicators on the top 4 ft shooters in the league. So why hold to them so tightly?

Do you not see why I don't care about your metrics? Out of the top 4...the guy shooting the least fga...shoots the most free throws. The guy shooting the most fga...shoots the last free throws. The guy shooting the most shots at the rim per game...shoots the least amount of free throws.

Hell, throw in Lebron and Westbrook....who shoot more shots at the rim than the other 4 guys above...and they shoot less free throws than them all.

Can you really not see why I don't think those two things matter all that much?

Last edited by DMAVS41 : 04-11-2013 at 11:09 PM.
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:10 PM   #165
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
I'm not trying to affect anything. I'm saying that the players should be given the same amount of time on the court.

If it doesn't affect the discussion at hand at all, why mess with it? Should we also equalize the number of cars that each player owns?

To be fair, there might be some argument for correlation, but I've never seen anyone make it, and it could honestly go either way.

Quote:
Stop pretending like fga mean anything.

So stop pretending that a fact is true? That's basically what you're saying here.

Quote:
The only way to equalize that is to have them on the court the same amount of time.

It's equalized by default, that's where the misunderstanding lies.

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Your other points don't make sense...

Which points?
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