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Old 04-09-2013, 11:55 PM   #136
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Also, I'm confused as to how shots at the rim and fga are the best indicators here when;

Melo shoots more shots at the rim and shoots 5.1 shots more than Harden...yet Harden shoots 2.5 more free throws per game.

Melo shoots more shots at the rim than Kobe and shoots 1.6 more shots...yet Kobe takes more free throws.

And Kevin Martin in 11 just destroys that notion with very few shots at the rim and an inordinate amount of free throws on very few fga.

You might not like it, but Harden and Durant have an actual skill that allows them to get to the line more often....and I don't think it is all that related to shots at the rim or overall fga. I think it's just something they intentionally try to do...and happen to be very good at it.
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Old 04-10-2013, 12:19 AM   #137
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Okay DMAVS we can all see the light now. Durant's got that "actual skill" to get fouled without contact. I wonder how many hours he spends at the gym, trying to miss a jumper with a guy within 2 feet of him, while flailing his arms and falling to the ground. And then proceeding to stare at the wall until someone plays his favorite noise, a sharp and forceful whistle.
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Old 04-10-2013, 12:30 AM   #138
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Lebron has averaged more than 10 fta per game 3 times during his career. That doesn't mean he wasn't a good scorer. KD averaged 28 ppg last season on 7.5 fta per game. KD is clearly a great scorer, he's proven it throughout his nba career, as you pointed out. It's only Lebron lovers that say this type of sh*t.
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Old 04-10-2013, 12:32 AM   #139
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Element
Okay DMAVS we can all see the light now. Durant's got that "actual skill" to get fouled without contact. I wonder how many hours he spends at the gym, trying to miss a jumper with a guy within 2 feet of him, while flailing his arms and falling to the ground. And then proceeding to stare at the wall until someone plays his favorite noise, a sharp and forceful whistle.

I'm not saying he doesn't get BS calls, but every star does...including both Kobe and Melo.

The difference in going to the line less than 1 more time per game is not enough to warrant the outrage expressed in this thread. Especially when half of you have conceded that Durant is better at drawing fouls.

We've determined that fga is certainly a factor, but not the only one. We've determined that shots at the rim are a factor, but hardly a big one. We've determined that Kobe and Melo settle for more bad shots in which drawing a foul is less likely.

In terms of Durant vs Melo...Durant's team shoots 1.5 more free throws per qtr and that leads to more time in the bonus...which could dramatically impact Durant's free throw attempts just off being on that team. You could easily see Durant and Melo switch places see Durant shoot 1 less free throw per game and Melo shoot one more free throw per game.

My point from the very beginning was simple. Durant is very good at drawing fouls...certainly better than Melo and Kobe. And that a difference of less than 1 trip to the line per game is not a big enough difference to warrant the bitching about his free throws.

On the average game, he doesn't even go to the free throw line a full 1 time more than Kobe or Melo.

Even if my side were to concede everything...it still means nothing. Take away 2 ppg from Durant and he's still as good as he is now.

So the notion that he is what he is off of free throws is non sense to begin with. Let alone the fact that his more fta is easily explained using logic....rather than proposing a league wide conspiracy in favor of Harden and Durant and against Melo and Kobe (two stars that play for the two biggest teams in the league)....
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Old 04-10-2013, 12:39 AM   #140
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

The thing is just that yeah, while every star gets BS calls (though not really Melo) or no calls (Lebron on defense hmm), KD gets more of them than ANYONE else we've seen recently, and at a much higher rate, too. A BS call is not quantifiable with numbers. Only when you watch him do his don't-get-hit-stare-at-ref routine you can see it. He gets whistles even young LeBron or 11 Wade wouldn't have gotten. 06 Finals Wade would be very proud of KD today, while everyone else would just shake their heads...it's awful to watch. Again, the key word is WATCHING. Watch him play, you'll see it, no need for any data
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Old 04-10-2013, 12:47 AM   #141
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Element
The thing is just that yeah, while every star gets BS calls (though not really Melo) or no calls (Lebron on defense hmm), KD gets more of them than ANYONE else we've seen recently, and at a much higher rate, too. A BS call is not quantifiable with numbers. Only when you watch him do his don't-get-hit-stare-at-ref routine you can see it. He gets whistles even young LeBron or 11 Wade wouldn't have gotten. 06 Finals Wade would be very proud of KD today, while everyone else would just shake their heads...it's awful to watch. Again, the key word is WATCHING. Watch him play, you'll see it, no need for any data

But that is just your opinion...and quite frankly just confirmation bias.

Now, if you are taking the stance that Durant is not good at drawing fouls and just receives an inordinate amount of BS calls...then at least you would have something to stand on.

But if you, like the others, concede that he's better at drawing fouls to begin with. Then a comparison with him and Melo (the guy you say gets no star treatment) looks rather similar. There is a 1.8 difference per game. .3 is removed when you have them play the same minutes. It is hard to quantify, but Durant most likely shoots more techs. The Thunder spend more time in the bonus and shoot 1.5 more free throws per qtr. So that 1.8 difference quickly becomes under 1 without even talking about what they do as players...that is just on circumstances alone.

So again. Either the league unfairly gives Durant many more calls than other stars...or he's actually doing something that leads to those calls. I tend to think he's doing something considering it makes no sense to prop up a player or team like the Thunder over the Lakers or Knicks and their stars.

And certainly doesn't make sense to prop up Harden...which you would have to argue as well if you think Durant gets BS star treatment. And you'd have to include Martin when he was taking an insane amount of free throws based on the metrics presented in this thread.

Seems like everyones issue is with the league and not Durant. How can you blame Durant if what he's doing is working?
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:15 AM   #142
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Also, I'm confused as to how shots at the rim and fga are the best indicators here when;

Melo shoots more shots at the rim and shoots 5.1 shots more than Harden...yet Harden shoots 2.5 more free throws per game.

Melo shoots more shots at the rim than Kobe and shoots 1.6 more shots...yet Kobe takes more free throws.

And Kevin Martin in 11 just destroys that notion with very few shots at the rim and an inordinate amount of free throws on very few fga.

You might not like it, but Harden and Durant have an actual skill that allows them to get to the line more often....and I don't think it is all that related to shots at the rim or overall fga. I think it's just something they intentionally try to do...and happen to be very good at it.


That tells you how bad Melo is reffed. He should be taking much more free throws than he is given.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:24 AM   #143
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Every superstar gets superstar fouls, but KD's are ridiculous. Anyone can see it. Some of you are in denial clearly.

I used to really enjoy watching KD play but it has gone downhill this season. I don't think it is entertaining to watch someone shoot free throws. All he has to do is flail his arms a bit and it's a foul.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:10 PM   #144
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
No. I'm saying that there are certain shots they have very little chance to get fouled on. Melo takes more of them. And I never said fga was nearly as big a factor as you. I'm just pointing out that a certain number of the fga for Melo and Kobe simply have very little chance to get fouled on. Just like Harden with his threes. Martin shot 3.2 shots at the rim in 11 and his free throws were off the charts...LOL

I watch Melo and Durant more than I watched Martin so it's difficult to make a completely fair comparison, but I do know that Martin for years has been known as one of the most notorious floppers. On his mid-range shots, he constantly leans his body in trying to draw fouls, is quite thin which helps sell contact as well and has that awkward shot.

I don't think players like that often deserve all of their free throws either, btw.

Quote:
Now. How much more often do you think Durant gets to the line simply by his team being in the bonus more often. The thunder shoot 1.5 more free throws per qtr than the Knicks and are likely in the bonus more often.

As I said before, even if Durant only got to the line 1 more time every 3 games off of this...that would be a .7 difference.

So on minutes and that alone...I get Durant down from 9.4 to 8.4. And that isn't even taking into account techs...but we can ignore that.

So you are left with 7.6 for Melo and 8.4 for Durant on things the players don't do. Minutes and Durant having an advantage for being on a team that draws more fouls.

Is 8.4 too high for you still?

Except we have no idea how much being in the penalty has added to either of their numbers. Watching the games, I suspect Durant draws more fouls that way, but as I said, Melo with his typical rest is playing at the end of all 4 quarters. Durant gets his rests the last few minutes of the 1st and 3rd, taking out some situations where his opponent would more likely be in the penalty.

8.4 would be on the high side, yes.

You still haven't explained why Durant's OWN FTA have jumped almost 2 per game from 7.6 to 9.4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Also, I'm confused as to how shots at the rim and fga are the best indicators here when;

Melo shoots more shots at the rim and shoots 5.1 shots more than Harden...yet Harden shoots 2.5 more free throws per game.

Melo shoots more shots at the rim than Kobe and shoots 1.6 more shots...yet Kobe takes more free throws.

And Kevin Martin in 11 just destroys that notion with very few shots at the rim and an inordinate amount of free throws on very few fga.

You might not like it, but Harden and Durant have an actual skill that allows them to get to the line more often....and I don't think it is all that related to shots at the rim or overall fga. I think it's just something they intentionally try to do...and happen to be very good at it.

I think Harden does get more credit than he should for his flops. I said that before. So I never said he deserves all the FTA he gets either. And as I said, he plays on the fastest paced team in the league and transition/semi-transition opportunities often result in fouls. Melo doesn't get many of these since the Knicks don't run, and when they are in transition, often look for open 3s.

It's not just the number with Durant either. Again, I see him get calls with little to no contact, pretty much if he twists his body awkwardly and misses a shot, hell, sometimes when he makes it. While I see Melo often go up strong, get contact and no call. Calls that Durant will literally get almost every time.

There's no question in my mind just from watching them play. I don't believe in league conspiracies, I think it may have more to do with Melo's reputation in addition to the refs rewarding Durant too much for his own flopping, combined with his weaker frame and just how unusual he looks with his length, especially when his shot is contested.
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Old 04-10-2013, 10:31 PM   #145
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaqAttack3234
I watch Melo and Durant more than I watched Martin so it's difficult to make a completely fair comparison, but I do know that Martin for years has been known as one of the most notorious floppers. On his mid-range shots, he constantly leans his body in trying to draw fouls, is quite thin which helps sell contact as well and has that awkward shot.

I don't think players like that often deserve all of their free throws either, btw.



Except we have no idea how much being in the penalty has added to either of their numbers. Watching the games, I suspect Durant draws more fouls that way, but as I said, Melo with his typical rest is playing at the end of all 4 quarters. Durant gets his rests the last few minutes of the 1st and 3rd, taking out some situations where his opponent would more likely be in the penalty.

8.4 would be on the high side, yes.

You still haven't explained why Durant's OWN FTA have jumped almost 2 per game from 7.6 to 9.4.



I think Harden does get more credit than he should for his flops. I said that before. So I never said he deserves all the FTA he gets either. And as I said, he plays on the fastest paced team in the league and transition/semi-transition opportunities often result in fouls. Melo doesn't get many of these since the Knicks don't run, and when they are in transition, often look for open 3s.

It's not just the number with Durant either. Again, I see him get calls with little to no contact, pretty much if he twists his body awkwardly and misses a shot, hell, sometimes when he makes it. While I see Melo often go up strong, get contact and no call. Calls that Durant will literally get almost every time.

There's no question in my mind just from watching them play. I don't believe in league conspiracies, I think it may have more to do with Melo's reputation in addition to the refs rewarding Durant too much for his own flopping, combined with his weaker frame and just how unusual he looks with his length, especially when his shot is contested.


I understand all that and I don't think really any of your post refutes what I'm saying. In fact, I agree with a lot of it. Our difference is essentially that you don't think Durant deserves it...while I think he has a skill/ability that gets him to the line more often. Really, you do to, you just don't like it.

Durant has jumped up his free throws this year because he's trying to get to the line more. It's obvious watching him play. He's cut down on long jumpers and threes....he's taking 1 less three and 1 less long jumper per game. So his fga are really the same in terms of your fga vs fta rate theory. He's just removed two bad shots a game. But the main thing is that he's trying to get to the line more. That is the difference between Harden/Durant and Melo/Kobe...the first pairing plays to get fouled more often. I think we can all agree on that...and it's something that Durant, at least imo, has been trying to do all year to become more efficient...and he has. So I don't think it's crazy to see a player go to the line roughly 1 more time per game when said player is trying to do that.

I didn't say I could prove anything. I said that logic leads you to a few things;

Minutes evened up takes Melo up .3 fta per game
The bonus thing has some impact. We don't know how much, but it definitely matters that the Thunder spend more time in the bonus and shoot 1.5 more free throws per qtr....
Techs matter. Who knows how much, but even if it were just 20 or 25 extra a year...that makes up .3 per game roughly

So, my point, is that it's a marginal difference...which you claimed otherwise solely based on fga. That was my beef. Even if you conservatively take the above into account. You are going from a 1.8 difference to 1.0 difference per game...and that has nothing to do with the players...just situations.

Then you said that Durant was better at drawing fouls. That is why I asked how much better. Because if he's 20 percent better...that could easily lead to an extra free throw or two a game.

So if you put them in similar team situations and you'd see roughly a 1 free throw difference per game...and Durant is better. I don't see the big deal. And that is just Melo. Kobe shoots 2 less shots per game than melo...so the margins are even smaller on that comparison.

If you went solely by fga...then Durant would be shooting at a much higher rate, but that metric is merely one of many factors and you treated it as the only one...or at least the main one. And the evidence just doesn't show that. Just like shots at the rim...they matter, but not nearly as much as you say given the evidence.

How is 8.4 still excessive? That would mean Durant goes to the line .4 more times a game than Melo. If you admit Durant is better at getting to the line...I don't see how a mere .8 difference on free throws is that big of a deal.

But honestly...the whole fga thing skewed the debate.

Here is the simple truth that honestly doesn't need much context. In the same number of minutes played per game. Durant shoots about 1.5 more free throws per game. Which is exactly within the normal range for a player you claim is better at getting to the line and, in my opinion, plays to get to the line more than Melo does.

Factor in things like techs and the bonus...and you shrink the number further.

Now, if you don't think Durant is better at getting to the line...then you would have more of reason to take your position. But it seemed to me that you agreed he was and just thought he got there too often based on a fga vs fta rate that is inherently flawed and missing way too much to solely go by.

And I never said Durant doesn't get the benefit of some calls for his frame and all the things you said. All of those things go into making him better at getting to the line. He uses them to his advantage. That is like saying Lebron dunks so often because of his size and strength...well...yes...he uses what he has to his advantage. Durant is tall, long, and skinny...and doesn't absorb contact the same way Melo does. And he combines all of that with selling calls more often and better.

So I'm stuck still being confused. Said player plays more minutes, shoots more techs, his team is in the bonus more often, tries to get to the line more often, and is better at selling calls...and it is unreasonable for said player to take roughly .9 more trips to the line per game?

I don't see the big deal. You watch any Thunder or Knicks game....and you are going to see Durant on the court 1.5 more minutes per game...and watch him take 1.8 more free throws per game. Which is going to the line .9 more times per game on average. That just isn't a big enough gap to warrant the outrage. Remove the extra free throws and all you would see is Durant taking an extra shot or two a game. His ppg would stay the same and his fg% might drop from like 50.6 to like 50.3. So I just don't see the issue. The only time this really would be a problem would be if you thought Durant should only be shooting like 6 free throws a game. But you think he should be shooting, i'm assuming, around 8 a game.

And that was the point of this thread. Is Durant only a good scorer because of his fta. If Durant and Melo shot the same percentage from the line, Durant would be getting 1.6 more ppg than Melo from the line.

Last edited by DMAVS41 : 04-10-2013 at 10:46 PM.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:23 AM   #146
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Minutes evened up takes Melo up .3 fta per game

It also takes him up another fga per game. The ratio remains the same, which is a more indicative stat than just raw fta.

Quote:
In the same number of minutes played per game. Durant shoots about 1.5 more free throws per game.

Why are you so open to the idea of equalizing minutes, and yet so opposed to the idea of equalizing shot attempts? Equalizing shot attempts is a lot more meaningful.

Quote:
Durant is tall, long, and skinny...and doesn't absorb contact the same way Melo does.

For me personally, this is the biggest factor I see in guys like Lebron and Anthony not really getting the calls they should. Lebron, and to a lesser extent, Anthony, are very good at powering through contact at the rim and still putting up a decent shot.

Quote:
Remove the extra free throws and all you would see is Durant taking an extra shot or two a game. His ppg would stay the same and his fg% might drop from like 50.6 to like 50.3.

Durant is averaging 28.3 on 64.4%. At Anthony's foul rate he'd be at 25.4 on 61.9%. If you account for the extra (approximate)1.43 possessions, you're looking at 26.2 on 59.7%.

*On an unrelated note, why are we still using approximated TS% when we seemingly have the play by play data to get a more accurate figure?

Quote:
Is Durant only a good scorer because of his fta.

Of course not. He's one of the best scorers I've ever seen.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:29 AM   #147
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by DatAsh
It also takes him up another fga per game. The ratio remains the same, which is a more indicative stat than just raw fta.



Why are you so open to the idea of equalizing minutes, and yet so opposed to the idea of equalizing shot attempts? Equalizing shot attempts is a lot more meaningful.



For me personally, this is the biggest factor I see in guys like Lebron and Anthony not really getting the calls they should. Lebron, and to a lesser extent, Anthony, are very good at powering through contact at the rim and still putting up a decent shot.



Durant is averaging 28.3 on 64.4%. At Anthony's foul rate he'd be at 25.4 on 61.9%. If you account for the extra (approximate)1.43 possessions, you're looking at 26.2 on 59.7%.

*On an unrelated note, why are we still using approximated TS% when we seemingly have the play by play data to get a more accurate figure?


Of course not. He's one of the best scorers I've ever seen.

Simple. Minutes should be equal...what you do with the time on the court is up in the air. FGA do not equal fta. The two leaders in free throw attempts this year take much less fga than Melo. It is a factor, but it doesn't mean enough.

Minutes played should be even. That is just common sense.

My god people. Melo takes 4 more shots per game from 16 feet and beyond. Stop acting like those matter at all. Those are just more bad shots that Durant has chosen not to take. Instead, Durant tries to get fouled on possessions in which Melo is setting for a long jumper. That is why Durant's free throws are higher and his fga are lower. Tries to get fouled more, better at getting fouled, settles for less bad shots.

1.5 more free throws per game on even time on the court is just not nearly enough to warrant the bitching. And that is before we even talk about techs and the extra 1.5 free throws the thunder take per qtr...
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Old 04-11-2013, 01:20 AM   #148
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

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Originally Posted by DMAVS41
Yes. The notion that free throw attempts are only impacted by field goal attempts is non sense to begin with. But even if that were true...people still can't grasp that Durant takes better shots (doesn't settle) and is just better at drawing fouls.

Oh my god. Melo takes 4 more shots per game. Unfortunately what they don't realize is that Melo is worse at drawing fouls and settles for bad shots way more often

And then nobody can even give their opinion on how much more Durant should be shooting at the line if all things were equal.

So I'll try it that way. Durant, Kobe, and Melo all take 20 shots a game. How many more free throws should Durant shoot per game?


D Mavs...I wish i could just keep my mouth closed about sports but i can't help. If people would apply the same logic that they do in everyday life to basketball then everyone would see things much clearer instead of the distorted view i see fans on this board have. Players fans are the worst they are usually the ones that lack objectivity of any kind.
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Old 04-11-2013, 01:41 AM   #149
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

If teams were allowed to be physical with Durant like they are with LeBron he would be hindered greatly.

Durant is just such a scrawny twig that any contact you make with him looks excessive when in reality it's just because he's so frail.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:10 AM   #150
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Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by toooo
Every superstar gets superstar fouls, but KD's are ridiculous. Anyone can see it. Some of you are in denial clearly.

I used to really enjoy watching KD play but it has gone downhill this season. I don't think it is entertaining to watch someone shoot free throws. All he has to do is flail his arms a bit and it's a foul.
Remember the Kobe foul at the end of the Kings game where nobody even touched him? People went freaking crazy about that. That's not unusual at all by KD standards. I constantly see him just dribbling near the top of the key and the whistle blows out of the blue. I'm like "what the hell did I miss?". When they show the replay, there was literally nothing. I'm absolutely lost as to why they randomly blowed their whistle.

My biggest problem with OKC is that the refs make it VERY clear that the opposing team is NOT going to be allowed to play the same defense as hacking-ass OKC.
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