Six NBA rookies most likely to outperform this season

[ralph_i_el]

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Six NBA rookies most likely to outperform this season


Every season, surprising NBA rookies outperform their draft slot with breakout performances. Last season it was Landry Shamet (No. 26), Mitchell Robinson (No. 36), Josh Okogie (No. 20) and Kevin Huerter (No. 19) who looked the part of draft day steals. The season before, Donovan Mitchell (No. 13), John Collins (No. 19), Jarrett Allen (No. 22), OG Anunoby (No. 23) and Kyle Kuzma (No. 27) proved to be the best value picks.

Whether it's a matter of opportunity, NBA readiness, underrated talent or some combination of all three, a handful of 2019-20 rookies are likely to join the aforementioned group by outplaying their draft range.

Here's a look at six players drafted outside the top 10 who could have the biggest rookie impact, along with a few second-rounders with the tools to emerge as early contributors.


Michael Porter Jr. | 6-11 | F | Denver Nuggets
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Prospect Profile: Michael Porter Jr.Michael Porter Jr. is among the most skilled and talented players in the draft, but questions remain about his durability and injury history.
Draft pick: No. 14 (2018)

A popular dark horse Rookie of the Year pick, Porter is finally healthy and is slated to play in his first official game since March 16, 2018.

The projected No. 1 pick on our 2018 mock draft in August 2017, Porter once was one of the most dominant players in all of high school basketball, ranking second in his class ahead of elite NBA prospects such as Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Injuries depleted his draft stock and have kept him out of the spotlight, but 21-year-old Porter has almost everything in place to put together a breakout season. He has the opportunity, the talent and the benefit of a redshirt season.

Even with healthy competition on the wing heading into training camp, Porter is far and away the most gifted Nuggets forward, with the talent to compete for the starting job as he gets comfortable. He'll be competing against Torrey Craig, Juancho Hernangomez, Will Barton, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant for minutes, but Porter gives Denver a different element on both ends of the floor as a springy 6-11 shooter. Whether at the 3 or the 4, Porter has size and on-the-move shooting that make him an ideal option to play off of point-center Nikola Jokic. The fact that he's coming in on a fairly veteran, accomplished group that doesn't necessarily need him to be "the man" figures to make his transition easier.


If there's one area where Porter can have an immediate impact, it's as a floor spacer. According to data from Krossover's database, Porter is a career 39% 3-point shooter on 297 attempts and connected on 85% of his 445 free throws. Even beyond the numbers, his stroke -- while reliant on elevation -- is pure, and his ability to space the floor out of a variety of actions will prove beneficial within a Nuggets offense that relies more on movement than on pick-and-roll. With other shot creators on the roster, Porter doesn't have to rely so much on the tough, contested pull-ups that showed up too often during his prep career.

Expecting Porter to take home Rookie of the Year honors is far too big of an ask. Even thinking he'll nab the starting spot coming off fairly major injuries might be lofty. There will be an adjustment period, and he has been far from durable up until this point. He was quite isolation-heavy and thirsty to score before his time at Missouri, while not being overly tough or physical on either end of the floor.

But with all that said, a healthy Porter is too natural a scorer to keep off the floor. Like Ben Simmons, he will benefit from being around the organization for a full season, learning the game and improving his habits during his redshirt year. Health permitting, Porter's combination of size, shooting and versatility is exactly what the Nuggets need at the forward spots.








Tyler Herro | 6-6 | G | Miami Heat
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Herro scores 25 in Heat's summer league winTyler Herro leads the Heat with 25 points to propel Miami to a 96-92 win over Orlando in Tuesday's summer league action.
Draft pick: No. 13

Herro landed in an excellent situation with the Heat, a team with a strong culture, reliable veterans and enough versatile defenders around to help pick up the slack while he adjusts to the NBA game.

Prior to the 2018-19 college season, I thought Herro (RSCI No. 40 recruit) had surprise one-and-done written all over him. Although he has a little more game at the same stage, Herro could be this year's Landry Shamet as an on-the-move shooter who thrives within his role. While Shamet was far more efficient from beyond the arc at the collegiate level -- particularly off the catch -- Herro has a similarly picturesque stroke, along with a little more pull-up game, should he see the opportunity to play out of pick-and-roll as a secondary ball handler.

Between Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters, Herro won't be put in a position to consistently create offense against a set defense (not yet a strength), which is likely to lead to a more efficient season. Although his naysayers will label him a shooter who doesn't make enough -- career 33.9% from 3 on 386 attempts, according to our database -- Herro's stroke is too versatile and mechanically sound not to fall consistently in time.

On a team that ranked 21st in 3-point percentage last season, Herro can add immediate value, while eventually showing that he's far more than just a standstill shooter.







Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 6-6 | G | New Orleans Pelicans
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NBA draft profile: Nickeil Alexander-WalkerNickeil Alexander-Walker averaged 16.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game as a sophomore at Virginia Tech.
Draft pick: No. 17

This selection comes with a little more hesitancy due to the simple fact that the Pelicans are deep in the backcourt with Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, JJ Redick, Josh Hart and even E'Twaun Moore. But Alexander-Walker, who lit up summer league to the tune of 24.3 PPG and 6.0 APG, is simply too talented and versatile to keep on the bench. His size, length and skill will allow him to fit in a ton of Alvin Gentry lineups.

Because of his size, the 21-year-old has adequate mass to shift all the way up to the 3 for stretches, where he can operate as more of a spot shooter next to other creators (career 39.1% 3-point shooter on 435 attempts). I like Ball as a bounce-back candidate, but if he is battling injuries or struggles to find his groove from 3, NAW can function as a playmaker, which was on full display with his left-hand passing in Vegas.

On top of that, Alexander-Walker is a competitive defender with a strong feel for the game. He generally plays with more maturity than your average rookie. Even if he's no more than a rotation contributor in Year 1, that's generally a strong yield for the No. 17 pick.

[ralph_i_el]

Brandon Clarke | 6-8 | F/C | Memphis Grizzlies
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Clarke's big summer league earns him MVP honorsBrandon Clarke has had some high-flying jams, big blocks and even demonstrated the range to lead the Grizzlies to the summer league finals and lock up MVP.
Draft pick: No. 21

The summer league MVP, Clarke has a lot of factors working in his favor for a strong rookie campaign. First, he's one of the oldest rookies in the NBA, with almost three years on Jaren Jackson Jr. He played in meaningful games at Gonzaga and brings a level of maturity to a retooled Memphis team that's in the process of finding its identity.


Clarke is also an ideal fit alongside JJJ in the frontcourt. As good as Jonas Valanciunas was last season, Clarke is the type of high-energy athlete who could electrify a Memphis fan base alongside Ja Morant and Jackson.

What made Clarke a tough sell to some NBA scouts is the fact that he functions more or less as a center on the offensive end, yet he weighs 207 pounds with a 6-foot-8 wingspan. That suggests he needs to play with another big man who can defend centers and protect the rim while also spacing the floor on offense. Those types of bigs aren't easy to find, but Memphis has one in Jackson. Although Clarke's Vegas shooting was encouraging, playing with Jackson allows him to focus on what he does best -- being an active offensive rebounder, pogo-stick finisher and occasional straight-line attacker while also making plays defensively.

Playing with an elite passer who loves to push the tempo in Morant doesn't hurt either. Clarke's ready-made productivity and fit in Memphis could make him one of the most useful rookies drafted outside of the top 10.











Grant Williams | 6-8 | F | Boston Celtics
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NBA draft profile: Grant WilliamsGrant Williams averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game as a junior at Tennessee.
Draft pick: No. 22

The No. 206 recruit in his high school class, 20-year-old Grant Williams is a consistent overachiever. I'd expect more of the same as he joins a Celtics team that values the toughness, intangibles and maturity he consistently brings to the floor. Williams may not have 20-point scoring nights or monster box score stats, but he'll impact winning on both ends of the floor with his physicality and feel. He sets bruising screens, protects the rim with verticality, takes charges and even tags rollers like a linebacker. He's a winner through and through, perfectly suited for Boston's culture.

Although I'd expect the Celtics to play a lot of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward at the 2/3/4 spots, Williams is tough and instinctive enough to slide up to the 5 in a pinch. Whether playing small ball or in a more traditional lineup, the Celtics' front line isn't exactly filled with world-beaters either in Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams and Vincent Poirier -- among whom Grant Williams is already the best passer, with the potential to become the best floor spacer (36.8% from 3 in summer league).

For all of his perceived shortcomings, his illustrious Tennessee career taught us to never bet against Grant Williams.








Ty Jerome | 6-5 | G | Phoenix Suns
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NBA draft profile: Ty JeromeTy Jerome averaged 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game as a junior at Virginia.
Draft pick: No. 24

One of my favorite underrated prospects dating back to last summer, Jerome has the experience, ready-made NBA skill level and opportunity in Phoenix to prove himself as a steal and future starter. A national champion, Jerome went 66-6 over his last two collegiate seasons. Within a Suns organization that has long dealt with dysfunction and losing, that matters. Although it generally takes rookie point guards time to adjust, Jerome is as NBA-ready as any 2019 draft pick outside the top 10. He also has spent most of his basketball career using his crafty, finesse-based game to be effective, so he shouldn't need much time to adjust to NBA-caliber defenders.

While the Suns did sign Ricky Rubio in the offseason, it's important to keep in mind that Rubio fully invested himself in the Spanish national team this summer and could certainly hit a wall due to fatigue at some point in the season. Even if that's not the case, Jerome has the shooting and size to play off both Rubio and Devin Booker. With Booker likely creating the majority of the offense and Deandre Ayton needing his fair share of touches, having Jerome as a floor spacer could make a lot of sense. The Suns are starved for shooters, ranking 30th in 3-point percentage last season. During his junior campaign with Virginia, Jerome ranked second in the entire nation in catch-and-shoot efficiency among Power 5 conference players.

Jerome is also a smart defender with great hands and instincts. At the very least he's a serviceable floor spacer who can make ball-screen reads and add value on the defensive end with his smarts. Even if it takes him a month or two to start earning the trust of new head coach Monty Williams, there will likely come a point at which it becomes clear that it's Jerome who should be groomed as Phoenix's point guard of the future.

[Manny98]

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