Can Kobe surpass MJ's #3 on the all-time scoring list?

[barbaroi]

You're still not reading the post . Take a moment to read what I wrote. Did you read it? Good. Now that you've done it, you will have realized that you wasted about an hour writing that post of yours because I already said that the 5-6% estimate was off. But so is yours. Every year for the last 6 years Kobe has scored above his career ppm ratio. That isn't going to stop now. Over the last 6 years Kobe has scored .7503 ppm. Your math assumes that he will score at his career rate of .69 ppm, which just isn't going to happen. Adjust for that and the estimate drops to an 11-12% difference in minutes.

As for the efficiency argument, I've never said that Kobe was more efficient, but rather that Jordan wasn't all that much more efficient. 55.7% to 56.9% is not much of a difference at all.

And Kobe's efficiency might fall off as he gets older, but it also might not. Reggie Miller's efficiency stayed the same virtually his entire career even at the age of 38-39, and Ray Allen has actually seen a boost to his efficiency in his later years; Jordan's fell off in his old age, but his TS% always had more fluctuation in it than Kobe's has ever had: Kobe's has sat between 54.4% and 58.0% his entire career. you can try and use last year as evidence of his efficiency declining, but through 30 games last year before injuries had taken their toll, Kobe was shooting a 56.9 TS%. And in the playoffs he managed a 56.7 TS% despite going up against 3 top 10 defenses.

We'll have to wait and see whether Kobe goes the Miller/Allen route or the Jordan one, but at the moment a 1.2% difference in efficiency is nothing to write home about.

[theaussieguy]

Do you know what the saddest thing about all this debating is....

I have known for ten years that JORDAN IS THE GOAT. I mean that is done and dusted and accepted worldwide and i am only 22. I am assuming the majority of posters here are American which is just sad. You guys have got to just let it go. Seriously you Americans really just have to get over yourselves (srs). I find it just so ming boggling that people are still going over this.

See the thing is, if Jordan were from any other country, he would be idolized by every last citizen of that country. I actually find it sickening at the lack of patriotism on these boards. You guys are argueing who is the GOAT between TWO FRIKKING AMERICANS. They are both American, they are both fukin awsome.

Americans seriously you arnt a world, you are a country. Theres a point where you just have to let go of all these made up boundaries (teams etc, conferences) and just appreciate the talent America has to offer as a whole.

Basketball is an international sport. Therefore every American basketball fan should support every last American player, despite what team he is playing for. Forget about all the teams in the NBA, you guys are forgetting that every single one of the great players that have gone through the NBA that are American, are YOURS, yours to claim. I really do not understand all of this arguing when each one of you can just agree to agree that America is the GOAT source of basketball stars. I mean wouldn't that make everyone happy.

I guess what im trying to say is, American Jordan Fans, don't be mad that there is a contender giving Jordan a run for his money, ESPECIALLY when he is from your country. Vice Versa too

[SinJackal]

Fact: If both players took 21 shots. Jordan would only make 1 more.

Which means he's a better scorer.

You're still not reading the post . Take a moment to read what I wrote. Did you read it? Good. Now that you've done it, you will have realized that you wasted about an hour writing that post of yours because I already said that the 5-6% estimate was off. But so is yours. Every year for the last 6 years Kobe has scored above his career ppm ratio. That isn't going to stop now. Over the last 6 years Kobe has scored .7503 ppm. Your math assumes that he will score at his career rate of .69 ppm, which just isn't going to happen. Adjust for that and the estimate drops to an 11-12% difference in minutes.

As for the efficiency argument, I've never said that Kobe was more efficient, but rather that Jordan wasn't all that much more efficient. 55.7% to 56.9% is not much of a difference at all.

And Kobe's efficiency might fall off as he gets older, but it also might not. Reggie Miller's efficiency stayed the same virtually his entire career even at the age of 38-39, and Ray Allen has actually seen a boost to his efficiency in his later years; Jordan's fell off in his old age, but his TS% always had more fluctuation in it than Kobe's has ever had: Kobe's has sat between 54.4% and 58.0% his entire career. you can try and use last year as evidence of his efficiency declining, but through 30 games last year before injuries had taken their toll, Kobe was shooting a 56.9 TS%. And in the playoffs he managed a 56.7 TS% despite going up against 3 top 10 defenses.

We'll have to wait and see whether Kobe goes the Miller/Allen route or the Jordan one, but at the moment a 1.2% difference in efficiency is nothing to write home about.

I did read your post. I replied to all of it (for the second time in a row).

An "hour" to make the post? LOL. I don't think so. I will even time this one for you. I most likely type, read, and think faster than you, so when I make a post, it takes a fraction of the time that it apparently would take you.

As for his points per minute, it's been only .722 for the last 3 years (combined), and been dropping every year for the past five years (With the exception of a slight increase between the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons). To claim he would have a .75+ over the next 2-3 seasons is ludicrous, as he has not had a rating that high for 4 seasons. You're skewing your numbers with his 05-07 years. Years which even you should be able to admit he won't be getting close to again.

So using a last 3 years ratio, which is more accurate, it's a bit over 13%. And as I said in my last post, he would need 13-14% more minutes than MJ to attain the same stats.

And as I've embarrassed you last time pointing out your fail math, I will do it again. 11%? Really? If he were to only play an extra 11% minutes, he would need to average a rate of nearly .8 per min up to that point (0.797). Which means you think he's going to average nearly 31 PPG over the next three seasons. Something he's clearly not capable of anymore.

It's going to be 13% at least. This assumes he's going to be scoring 27-28 PPG over the next 3 seasons. This is the maximum you can hope for. Factoring in decline, it's going to be 13.5% to 14% more minutes played to attain the same points as Jordan. So even if he doesn't decline at all over the next three years (huge if), he's still going to end up taking 13% extra time to attain the same points as MJ.

I can't believe you're still arguing this after I am explaining this to you so clearly, when you keep being so wrong.


About the TS%, Jordan's is better, Kobe's career TS% will never be better, nobody who isn't a moron disagrees with that, so there's no reason to even continue bantering about it. The point's been made and can't be countered. All you're doing is trying to cloud the issue with irrelevant information.

Of course, if you want to talk about playoff TS%.

Jordan: .568.
Kobe: .543.

We can do NBA Finals TS% if you want too, but you know that's going to be embarrassing if we do.


Entire post time: 9 mins while watching Chapplle Show and eating dinner. Most of which was doing the correct math. Does't' take long to read, type, and make a point.

[MasterDurant24]

Do you know what the saddest thing about all this debating is....

I have known for ten years that JORDAN IS THE GOAT. I mean that is done and dusted and accepted worldwide and i am only 22. I am assuming the majority of posters here are American which is just sad. You guys have got to just let it go. Seriously you Americans really just have to get over yourselves (srs). I find it just so ming boggling that people are still going over this.

See the thing is, if Jordan were from any other country, he would be idolized by every last citizen of that country. I actually find it sickening at the lack of patriotism on these boards. You guys are argueing who is the GOAT between TWO FRIKKING AMERICANS. They are both American, they are both fukin awsome.

Americans seriously you arnt a world, you are a country. Theres a point where you just have to let go of all these made up boundaries (teams etc, conferences) and just appreciate the talent America has to offer as a whole.

Basketball is an international sport. Therefore every American basketball fan should support every last American player, despite what team he is playing for. Forget about all the teams in the NBA, you guys are forgetting that every single one of the great players that have gone through the NBA that are American, are YOURS, yours to claim. I really do not understand all of this arguing when each one of you can just agree to agree that America is the GOAT source of basketball stars. I mean wouldn't that make everyone happy.

I guess what im trying to say is, American Jordan Fans, don't be mad that there is a contender giving Jordan a run for his money, ESPECIALLY when he is from your country. Vice Versa too

What the hell?

[chazzy]

About the TS%, Jordan's is better, Kobe's career TS% will never be better, nobody who isn't a moron disagrees with that, so there's no reason to even continue bantering about it. The point's been made and can't be countered. All you're doing is trying to cloud the issue with irrelevant information.

Of course, if you want to talk about playoff TS%.

Jordan: .568.
Kobe: .543.

We can do NBA Finals TS% if you want too, but you know that's going to be embarrassing if we do.

Been skimming through this thread. You keep arguing something that's not even being argued. All he's saying is that the difference between their efficiency is not as large as everyone makes it out to be. That's it. You're so eager to engage in Jordan>Kobe debate when no one is even disputing that.

As for the efficiency argument, I've never said that Kobe was more efficient

[barbaroi]

Which means he's a better scorer.




I did read your post. I replied to all of it (for the second time in a row).

An "hour" to make the post? LOL. I don't think so. I will even time this one for you. I most likely type, read, and think faster than you, so when I make a post, it takes a fraction of the time that it apparently would take you.

As for his points per minute, it's been only .722 for the last 3 years (combined), and been dropping every year for the past five years (With the exception of a slight increase between the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons). To claim he would have a .75+ over the next 2-3 seasons is ludicrous, as he has not had a rating that high for 4 seasons. You're skewing your numbers with his 05-07 years. Years which even you should be able to admit he won't be getting close to again.

So using a last 3 years ratio, which is more accurate, it's a bit over 13%. And as I said in my last post, he would need 13-14% more minutes than MJ to attain the same stats.

And as I've embarrassed you last time pointing out your fail math, I will do it again. 11%? Really? If he were to only play an extra 11% minutes, he would need to average a rate of nearly .8 per min up to that point (0.797). Which means you think he's going to average nearly 31 PPG over the next three seasons. Something he's clearly not capable of anymore.

It's going to be 13% at least. This assumes he's going to be scoring 27-28 PPG over the next 3 seasons. This is the maximum you can hope for. Factoring in decline, it's going to be 13.5% to 14% more minutes played to attain the same points as Jordan. So even if he doesn't decline at all over the next three years (huge if), he's still going to end up taking 13% extra time to attain the same points as MJ.

I can't believe you're still arguing this after I am explaining this to you so clearly, when you keep being so wrong.

I said 11-12% because it comes out to 12% if you use the .75 ppm which has been his ratio over the last 6 years. However if you decrease his minutes while keeping his scoring relatively the same, his ppm ratio would go up, thereby reaching the 11% mark. You assume that his minutes are going to stay the same and only adjust for ppg by saying he has to score 31 ppg to reach the 11% mark. If for example he scored 26.5 ppg in 33 mpg for the next 3 years, he would pass jordan having played only 10.9% more minutes. How is that an impossible scenario?

[tpols]

I said 11-12% because it comes out to 12% if you use the .75 ppm which has been his ratio over the last 6 years. However if you decrease his minutes while keeping his scoring relatively the same, his ppm ratio would go up, thereby reaching the 11% mark. You assume that his minutes are going to stay the same and only adjust for ppg by saying he has to score 31 ppg to reach the 11% mark. If for example he scored 26.5 ppg in 33 mpg for the next 3 years, he would pass jordan having played only 10.9% more minutes. How is that an impossible scenario?

Why the hell is sinjackal arguing semantics on expectations for how many more minutes it would take for kobe to catch mj? Who cares if the numbers were a few percents off, that wasn't even the main point of this guy's original post.

This guy needs to stop using strawman arguments in an attempt to look smart.