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Old 06-21-2012, 03:18 AM   #16
EnoughSaid
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Well yeah, they're nervous, but it's not like they're NERVOUS nervous. I think they just have to let loose and let their game to the talking. I think this game 5 is going to be the break out game for Bosh or Wade.
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Old 06-21-2012, 03:20 AM   #17
BigTicket
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Game 5: Miami 80% - OKC 20%

Game 6: OKC 60% - Miami 40%

Game 7: OKC 80% - Miami 20%

Overall that 90-10 in Miami's favor, and would change to about 50/50 if OKC wins game 5.

As for nervousness, I'd say the Heat are at about a 7/10.

OKC is probably less nervous, mostly because they seems to have given up already (see Durant/Westbrook interview after game 4).
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Old 06-21-2012, 03:36 AM   #18
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigTicket
Game 5: Miami 80% - OKC 20%

Game 6: OKC 60% - Miami 40%

Game 7: OKC 80% - Miami 20%

Overall that 90-10 in Miami's favor, and would change to about 50/50 if OKC wins game 5.
I wish I knew how to do the math on this. At first I thought something about this was wrong, but after thinking about it some more this actually makes sense.
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Old 06-21-2012, 03:41 AM   #19
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 28renyoy
Whoever wins this game will win the series IMO. It's pretty much a game 7 for both teams, I give the Heat a 10% chance of winning a game 6 and 0% chance of winning a game 7. I have game 5 at 50/50
Obviously this percentages are bullshit but in some way it's what I think about this series: if the Heat doesn't win tonight they will have hard times in OKC for game 6 and if they lose that game they're out.
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:11 AM   #20
BigTicket
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGzBuNNy
I wish I knew how to do the math on this. At first I thought something about this was wrong, but after thinking about it some more this actually makes sense.

Well your wish is about to come true.

OKC needs to win all 3, so the way to calculate their chances is simple:

Game 1 odds * game 2 odds * game 3 odds = 0.2*0.6*0.8 = 0.096 = 9.6%

For Miami you can of course just do 100% - OKC chances = 90.4%. However, if you want to calculate their chances directly, it's a bit more complicated.

Game 1 odds + chance of loss in game 1 * game 2 odds + chance of loss in games 1 * chance of loss in game 2 * game 3 odds = 0.8 + 0.2*0.4 + 0.2*0.6*0.2 = 0.904 = 90.4%.

Of course if you disagree with my assesment of the odds for each game, you can always fill in your own numbers, and see what the outcome would be.

Last edited by BigTicket : 06-21-2012 at 04:13 AM.
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:13 AM   #21
bdreason
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

They don't seem nervous at all to be honest. They seem confident and focused. They've already won a game @ OKC.
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:18 AM   #22
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigTicket
Well your wish is about to come true.

OKC needs to win all 3, so the way to calculate their chances is simple:

Game 1 odds * game 2 odds * game 3 odds = 0.2*0.6*0.8 = 0.096 = 9.6%

For Miami you can of course just do 100% - OKC chances = 90.4%. However, if you want to calculate their chances directly, it's a bit more complicated.

Game 1 odds + chance of loss in game 1 * game 2 odds + chance of loss in games 1 * chance of loss in game 2 * game 3 odds = 0.8 + 0.2*0.4 + 0.2*0.6*0.2 = 0.904 = 90.4%.

Of course if you disagree with my assesment of the odds for each game, you can always fill in your own numbers, and see what the outcome would be.
Thanks dude! My mind can rest now..don't know how I didn't see that.
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:39 AM   #23
SacJB Shady
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

The Heat have total Thunder control.... Its not like they can't win a game 7 either if they had too. The heat figured the thunder out.
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Old 06-21-2012, 06:26 AM   #24
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SacJB Shady
The Heat have total Thunder control.... Its not like they can't win a game 7 either if they had too. The heat figured the thunder out.

i dont see it... if they lose game 6 game 7 is going to be too much pressure ofr miami.

i think its 20% chance they lose 5, 50/50 game 6 and then 7 is probably not even going to be close. The crowd, the momentum, the cusp of such a choke.. No way miami wins that game
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Old 06-21-2012, 06:36 AM   #25
HorryIsMyMVP
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

We gonna act like if it gets to game 7 Joey Crawford won't be the ref for it.
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Old 06-21-2012, 10:58 AM   #26
SyRyanYang
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Default Re: How nervous is LeBron + The Heatles right now? 1-10 scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tpols
So the Thunder have a 50% chance of winning this series right now
well, 50%*(1-10%)=45% according to him
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