Props to Pau Gasol thread...

[dubeta]

Pau, best PF of the last decade no question

[SouBeachTalents]

Pau, best PF of the last decade no question

[MVBallin2K]

If that is the case, 2013 Wade is a bottom 3 lowest ranked 2nd option. Wade averaged less than 16 ppg in the 2013 playoffs. Gasol was NEVER that bad in 09 or 10.

While I do think Gasol is being underrated by what you were responding to, Gasol never won a ring on his own team. Wade won a ring before Bron came to the Heat as the first option on the team.

I don't think Gasol carried Kobe at all but I also don't think Kobe carried Gasol. The team itself blended together and won the championship. You take big pieces of the team out and they don't win. Same with the Heat, same with the Spurs. No one man can win or carry a team to a championship. MJ even had Pippen. Dirk is the closest you can get in modern times and he had a lot of good pieces surrounding him that stepped up.

All this being said, Gasol is going to come into his own on the Bulls. An offesnse that takes advantage of his passing and post ability is just what he needs. Happy for him finding a home even if it's not LA.

[fpliii]

Great post, fpliii.

I'm one of those that uses PER (usually in H2H comparisons with guys playing a similar role), but RAPM, from what I gather, seems to be far more indepth.

Is there a reason bball-ref doesn't have it listed?

PER is fine if you compare guys in similar roles I guess...my main issue is that not everything is recorded in the box score.

It's a bit advanced for B-R. The guys on the blog (well, the old writers) are familiar with it, and some have calculated their own variants of APM (similar to RAPM, but using a different regression technique; APM has been around since I think 01, the Mavs hired its creator soon after he put it together). The main issue being that it's not something mainsteam yet, so there's not as much demand at the moment. ESPN is using RPM (which is similar to xRAPM, or the version on stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com, since it uses play-by-play data in addition to box score elements), and has slowly been mentioning it in articles.

It's not really something that's approachable though by the general public, since it's not very easily explained. The process of calculation is very robust:

1) parse out 10-man (5 on each team) lineups from play-by-plays, including columns for scoring margin and number of possessions
2) create a massive design matrix filled with 1's (home team), -1's (away team), and 0's (not in that lineup), for the analysis
3) perform ridge regression (modified version of ordinary least squares when the number of columns in the design matrix != the number of rows) once to get the results, and a second time (changing the -1's to 1's) to get the off/def split number, and combine the results to get offensive and defensive RAPM

If you incorporate results from previous seasons as the center (as opposed to zeros), it improves the estimates (the goal being to isolate a player's impact on scoring margin, by removing the effects of his teammates and opponent lineups faced).

I do like it a lot, but again with the caveat that you can't compare players if their roles aren't similar.

[stalkerforlife]

It's a rubbish stat, just like PER. Both are just linear weight summations from box scores, that provide no new information.

Hollinger (PER) and Oliver (win shares) are both smart guys, but they tell us nothing about what actually went on that we can't ascertain from a box score (and both guys have used more sophisticated metrics in their work for teams; these are simplistic stats for public consumption).

RAPM is a much better metric (and one that Front Offices actually use and value), based on play-by-plays, and actually derived from scoring margin (which is the point of the game). During their three Finals runs (both guys were major contributors, so they're somewhat comparable; inb4 some fool tries to mention a role player's RAPM in a failed attempt to discredit the stat):

08: Kobe 4.51 Pau 3.48
09: Kobe 5.11 Pau 2.64
10: Kobe 4.47 Pau 1.13

BTW stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com is not a reliable source for RAPM...it uses box score elements to create a blended metric. The following are reliable sources:

http://www.gotbuckets.com/ (97-00)
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/ (08-14)
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/ (only 03-07, since 01 and 02 have incomplete datasets; use GotBuckets for later seasons)

Thanks for trying to help an old man out, but you know us old men and our "eye test" evaluations.

I'm certainly not ignorant enough to dismiss stats completely, though. I just don't think they tell enough of the story, simply because there are way too many variables. Stats, along with the eye test, along with a lot of context, is seemingly the way to go.

[kennethgriffin]

McHale is top 30 all-time, and Parker is top 50 all-time?

Don't get me wrong griff, I agree with your larger point. But I think you're overrating those two guys a bit.

well maybe mchale is more around top 40
but
some people think mchale was the hardest post player to guard.

even barkley said it

i mean in 1987 mchale averaged 26ppg on 60%

hes a top 5 power forward ever

he was a 1st team all nba'r and 1st team all defender

regularly on the all defensive team while putting up around 20ppg

he's high up there in my book


and yeah parker might be more around top 60 with ginobili

hes been the leader in mvp shares for the last 2 spurs title teams

he is a legit finals mvp

he might not be an official resume top 50 player ever. but hes always been snubbed and overlooked cause people in the US hate the french


honestly if the media voted for the MVP the way they did when steve nash won it. then tony parker would have gotten it atleast once by now

the spurs almost always have the best record. he runs the show.

but owell..



honestly other than chris paul. whos been a better PG in the nba since 2007. parker might have a case for best IMO

[dubeta]

2 rings in that time frame

Led his team in win shares in 2010 championship

20/11 on 52% FG

Perfected the triangle to team success

[SouBeachTalents]

2 rings in that time frame

Led his team in win shares in 2010 championship

20/11 on 52% FG

Perfected the triangle to team success

So Gasol was better than Dirk?

[fpliii]

Thanks for trying to help an old man out, but you know us old men and our "eye test" evaluations.

I'm certainly not ignorant enough to dismiss stats completely, though. I just don't think they tell enough of the story, simply because there are way too many variables. Stats, along with the eye test, along with a lot of context, is seemingly the way to go.

Don't get me wrong, I prefer the eye test 100%, but I can't watch every game played by every player on every team every season.

I don't consider the box score much at all when evaluating players (though the one thing I do like related to box scores are shooting charts...pretty cool to see how effective guys are from different parts of the court). I trust my eyes the most, and legitimate impact metrics (RAPM, with/without margin, team ORtg/DRtg) in the absence of a huge number of games watched.

[stalkerforlife]

Pau, best PF of the last decade no question

You're by far the funniest Bran stan on this site.

[MrC1991]

I laughed way to hard at this.

[04mzwach]

Dieng is playing like a pimp also.

[fpliii]

well maybe mchale is more around top 40
but
some people think mchale was the hardest post player to guard.

even barkley said it

i mean in 1987 mchale averaged 26ppg on 60%

hes a top 5 power forward ever

he was a 1st team all nba'r and 1st team all defender

regularly on the all defensive team while putting up around 20ppg

he's high up there in my book


and yeah parker might be more around top 60 with ginobili

hes been the leader in mvp shares for the last 2 spurs title teams

he is a legit finals mvp

he might not be an official resume top 50 player ever. but hes always been snubbed and overlooked cause people in the US hate the french


honestly if the media voted for the MVP the way they did when steve nash won it. then tony parker would have gotten it atleast once by now

the spurs almost always have the best record. he runs the show.

but owell..



honestly other than chris paul. whos been a better PG in the nba since 2007. parker might have a case for best IMO

Top 5 PF ever?

Duncan, KG, Dirk, Barkley, Malone in some order are peoples' top 5s (likely with Pettit in there as well, but I didn't get to watch him live obviously).

My main issue with McHale is that he wasn't a first option throughout his career. Hard to compare him to players who were.

My issue with Parker is that I never once thought he was better than Ginobili or Duncan in their primes. I also don't buy the best PG in the league thing. From watching him, CP3, Nash, Westbrook, healthy Rose, and now Curry as well have all been better at one point or another since 07. Call me a hater, but I think he's a product of Pop and the Spurs' system.

[SpecialQue]

Pau raping chumps worldwide. I love this guy.

[navy]

Pau raping chumps worldwide. I love this guy.

Lakers let him walk cheap.