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  1. #31
    Free the banned users. stalkerforlife's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by knickswoman
    LOL at these nerds
    Daaaaaaaaaaaaamn, a woman owning the OP.


  2. #32
    Laker Nation riseagainst's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by 6 for 24
    Friends of ISH!

    As you all know, InsideHoops is the mecca for intelligent basketball discussion. I enjoy this venue because the posters here use advanced statistical models to look "beyond the boxscore". Indeed, there is so much knowledge in literally every thread posted here.

    If I may, I would like to make a humble contribution, something I've been working on for many years now in my spare time. It is a very complicated mathematical formula that I believe encapsulates the most important quantities in basketball. I don't want to go into a huge explanation of how I arrived at this, but you can rest assured that the math is solid. The formula is:

    SHOTS = FGA + FTA

    or, since it is often more useful to see this PER game,

    PER = (FGA + FTA) / #GAMES

    As you all know, the objective of the game is to put up shots, so I am surprised that my revolutionary formula is not in the common nomenclature. Let us make it so!

    This formula passes the "common sense" test as the greatest player in NBA history, Kobe Bean Bryant, routinely leads the league in this category. With Kobe out this year due to injury, we have Kevin Durant leading. From what I understand, he is the leading candidate for the MVP award (I don't know since I stopped watching the game the moment Kobe stopped playing), so again it looks solid.

    Let us look at last year's PER for the top MVP candidates:
    LeBron: 24.8
    Durant: 26.1
    Kobe: 28.4

    Look at "old" Kobe schooling these youngsters in their prime.

    And look at their career highs:
    LeBron: 33.4
    Durant: 29.9
    Kobe: 37.4

    Not even close!

    I hope this helps illustrate Kobe's superiority to his so-called "competition"; this is especially important for you youngsters who started watching basketball this year and haven't had the fortune of watching the NBA PER leader. But no worries, he'll be back and better than ever next year!

    Up next: I will add salary to the equation to show why Kobe is even more productive than these guys. SHOTS + $$ is pretty much what it's all about.

    Warmest regards,

    Ayotunde Ndiaye

    [EDIT!] Due to popular demand, I have submitted to Adam Silver a proposal to make PER a part of the official NBA awards, to hopefully replace the meaningless MVP. I have even designed a trophy and an infographic to show how this might look:



    http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=324201




  3. #33
    One Mizzou.
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by fpliii
    PER doesn't exist before 1977-78. You need all the stats in a box score to calculate it, and missing stats for seasons prior to 77-78 are zeroed out:



    source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
    Indeed.

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    PER IS RETARDED


    1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
    2. LeBron James 27.79
    3. Shaquille O'Neal 26.43
    4. David Robinson* 26.18
    5. Wilt Chamberlain* 26.13
    6. Chris Paul 25.59
    7. Bob Pettit* 25.35
    8. Dwyane Wade 25.29
    9. Neil Johnston* 24.69
    10. Charles Barkley* 24.63
    11. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 24.58
    12. Tim Duncan 24.56
    13. Kevin Durant 24.53
    14. Magic Johnson* 24.11
    15. Karl Malone* 23.90
    16. Hakeem Olajuwon* 23.59
    17. Larry Bird* 23.50
    18. Dirk Nowitzki 23.48
    19. Kobe Bryant 23.36
    20. Oscar Robertson* 23.17
    21. Yao Ming 23.02
    22. Kevin Garnett 22.92
    23. Jerry West* 22.89
    24. Elgin Baylor* 22.69
    25. Moses Malone* 22.31
    26. Tracy McGrady 22.13
    27. Dwight Howard 22.09
    28. Amar'e Stoudemire 22.03
    29. Dolph Schayes* 21.98
    30. Julius Erving* 21.97
    31. John Stockton* 21.83
    32. George Gervin* 21.74
    33. Bob Lanier* 21.69
    34. Dominique Wilkins* 21.56
    35. Clyde Lovellette* 21.55
    36. Adrian Dantley* 21.51
    37. Pau Gasol 21.49
    38. Harry Gallatin* 21.48
    39. Manu Ginobili 21.46
    40. Alonzo Mourning* 21.24
    41. Carmelo Anthony 21.17
    42. Clyde Drexler* 21.07
    43. Patrick Ewing* 21.01
    44. Dan Issel* 20.99
    45. Chris Webber 20.94
    46. Allen Iverson 20.92
    47. Al Jefferson 20.84
    48. John Drew 20.74
    49. Bob McAdoo* 20.73
    50. Elton Brand 20.72
    51. Kevin Johnson 20.70
    52. Chris Bosh 20.62
    53. George Yardley* 20.51
    54. Ed Macauley* 20.39
    55. Paul Pierce 20.36
    56. Larry Foust 20.19
    57. Rick Barry* 20.16
    58. Artis Gilmore* 20.16
    59. Marques Johnson 20.11
    60. Vince Carter 20.03
    61. Kevin McHale* 20.02
    62. LaMarcus Aldridge 19.98
    63. Steve Nash 19.95
    64. Larry Nance 19.92
    65. Alex English* 19.87
    66. Walt Bellamy* 19.84
    67. Bob Cousy* 19.76
    68. Terrell Brandon 19.69
    69. David Thompson* 19.68
    70. Carlos Boozer 19.66
    71. Paul Arizin* 19.66
    72. Mark Price 19.62
    73. Gilbert Arenas 19.57
    74. Zach Randolph 19.56
    75. Cliff Hagan* 19.50
    76. Sam Cassell 19.48
    77. Michael Redd 19.48
    78. Paul Westphal 19.43
    79. Billy Cunningham* 19.38
    80. Robert Parish* 19.22
    81. David Lee 19.22
    82. Bernard King* 19.18
    83. Walt Frazier* 19.12
    84. Deron Williams 19.12
    85. Bailey Howell* 19.11
    86. Tony Parker 19.08
    87. Shawn Kemp 19.08
    88. Walter Davis 19.07
    89. Shawn Marion 19.03
    90. Grant Hill 19.03
    91. Mark Aguirre 19.02
    92. Shareef Abdur-Rahim 19.02
    93. Paul Millsap 18.92
    94. Gary Payton* 18.88
    95. Bill Russell* 18.87
    96. Jerry Lucas* 18.86
    97. David West 18.86
    98. Brad Daugherty 18.85
    99. Chauncey Billups 18.82
    100. World B. Free 18.78
    101. Chris Mullin* 18.78
    102. Andrei Kirilenko 18.75
    103. Stephon Marbury 18.74
    104. Sidney Moncrief 18.69
    105. Sam Jones* 18.68
    106. Scottie Pippen* 18.63
    107. Tim Hardaway 18.61
    108. Vern Mikkelsen* 18.60
    109. Willis Reed* 18.57
    110. Ray Allen 18.56
    111. George McGinnis 18.55
    112. Gus Williams 18.51
    113. Zydrunas Ilgauskas 18.49
    114. Pete Maravich* 18.38
    115. Kiki Vandeweghe 18.37
    116. Reggie Miller* 18.36
    117. Steve Francis 18.35
    118. Alvan Adams 18.32
    119. Terry Cummings 18.29
    120. Bill Sharman* 18.21
    121. Antawn Jamison 18.14
    122. Isiah Thomas* 18.11

  5. #35
    3-time NBA All-Star oarabbus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by fpliii
    PER doesn't exist before 1977-78. You need all the stats in a box score to calculate it, and missing stats for seasons prior to 77-78 are zeroed out:



    source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

    What if you calculate the PER statistics assuming

    1) They had league average steals and blocks
    2) They were in the 95th percentile all time steals and blocks
    3) A best case scenario i.e. >4 or 5 blocks/game

  6. #36
    big time kobe stan JT123's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by stalkerforlife
    Daaaaaaaaaaaaamn, a woman owning the OP.

    Not a woman, just a transgender fggt who used to go by the name knicksman.

  7. #37
    College star Asukal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    dubeta trying to grow a brain still an idi0t.

  8. #38
    sahelanthropus fpliii's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by oarabbus
    What if you calculate the PER statistics assuming

    1) They had league average steals and blocks
    2) They were in the 95th percentile all time steals and blocks
    3) A best case scenario i.e. >4 or 5 blocks/game
    Not sure. PER is calculated based on league averages in a given year. First uPER is calculated (unadjusted), and then after adjusting for pace, it's normalized so that the average player in the league in that particular season.

    Just looking at the formula though:

    source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

    there's a factor of:

    VOP * DRB% * BLK

    in there. So I guess if you figure other guys weren't really blocking shots, you can just multiply that factor by the pace adjustment, and normalize by league average.

    If we want a quick estimate, we can just look at guys who were in the league in both 72-73 and 73-74 who were at the top of the block leaderboard in 73-74 (first year after it became an official stat), and see how much their PERs changed.

    So, the top 10 in BPG in 73-74, and the changes in their PERs:

    Elmore Smith (4.9): 14.5->15.9 (ppg went down 6 though)
    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (3.5) 28.5->24.4 (ppg went down 3, rpg went down too)
    Bob McAdoo (3.3) 16.8->24.7 (became a much better player in his second year though)
    Elvin Hayes (3.0) 17.5->18.2 (went up by 3.6 rpg, fg% dropped though)
    Bob Lanier (3.0) 22.1->23.9 (trb dropped a bit, but fg% went up)
    Nate Thurmond (2.9) 17.3->15.0 (ppg, rpg dropped)
    Gar Heard (2.8) 14.9->16.0 (ppg and rpg increased)
    Sam Lacey (2.3) 13.8->17.5 (ppg, rpg, apg increased slightly)
    Clifford Ray (2.2) 15.7->15.0 (ppg and rpg increased, but so did his minutes)
    George Johnson (1.9) 15.9->14.4 (small dropoffs across the board)

    Steals and offensive boards also were recorded for the first time in 73-74, so they had an effect.

    Just eyeballing though, I'd say:

    1) PER is unchanged, since right now they have league average as well.
    2) In that case, they'd look something like the top 10 guys here. Taking into account all the other factors listed above for those guys, it looks like a difference of +1.5 or +2.0.
    3) Looks like a difference of +3.0 or +4.0, if everything else is unchanged.

  9. #39
    Very good NBA starter wally_world's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by dubeta
    I doubt LeBron will go team jumping at the age of 40 like Shaq, or play at 40 like MJ to drastically reduce his PER

    LeBron has 2-3 years to INCREASE his PER, and about 2-3 years where it will DECREASE after

    So when he retires I think it will be the same it is now
    Already doing it in his prime

    So what you're saying is, MJ and Shaq's PER should be higher if not for the fact they jumped teams or played till their bodies broke down? So shouldn't they be rated higher than they are? Or it just goes to show PER isn't a good measure at all?

  10. #40
    NBA rookie of the year Psileas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Let's rank the Top 11 GOATs by PER

    Quote Originally Posted by fpliii
    Not sure. PER is calculated based on league averages in a given year. First uPER is calculated (unadjusted), and then after adjusting for pace, it's normalized so that the average player in the league in that particular season.

    Just looking at the formula though:

    source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

    there's a factor of:

    VOP * DRB% * BLK

    in there. So I guess if you figure other guys weren't really blocking shots, you can just multiply that factor by the pace adjustment, and normalize by league average.

    If we want a quick estimate, we can just look at guys who were in the league in both 72-73 and 73-74 who were at the top of the block leaderboard in 73-74 (first year after it became an official stat), and see how much their PERs changed.

    So, the top 10 in BPG in 73-74, and the changes in their PERs:

    Elmore Smith (4.9): 14.5->15.9 (ppg went down 6 though)
    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (3.5) 28.5->24.4 (ppg went down 3, rpg went down too)
    Bob McAdoo (3.3) 16.8->24.7 (became a much better player in his second year though)
    Elvin Hayes (3.0) 17.5->18.2 (went up by 3.6 rpg, fg% dropped though)
    Bob Lanier (3.0) 22.1->23.9 (trb dropped a bit, but fg% went up)
    Nate Thurmond (2.9) 17.3->15.0 (ppg, rpg dropped)
    Gar Heard (2.8) 14.9->16.0 (ppg and rpg increased)
    Sam Lacey (2.3) 13.8->17.5 (ppg, rpg, apg increased slightly)
    Clifford Ray (2.2) 15.7->15.0 (ppg and rpg increased, but so did his minutes)
    George Johnson (1.9) 15.9->14.4 (small dropoffs across the board)

    Steals and offensive boards also were recorded for the first time in 73-74, so they had an effect.

    Just eyeballing though, I'd say:

    1) PER is unchanged, since right now they have league average as well.
    2) In that case, they'd look something like the top 10 guys here. Taking into account all the other factors listed above for those guys, it looks like a difference of +1.5 or +2.0.
    3) Looks like a difference of +3.0 or +4.0, if everything else is unchanged.
    In general, according to PER, the value of 1 turnover = 1 steal (in absolute terms, obviously), regardless of pace and 1 turnover is equal to around 0.7 blocks, with pace only affecting this ratio minimally. With this in mind, I guess that young Kareem's actual PER would rise by a little (say, by around 1), Wilt's by somewhat more (maybe 2-3) and Russell's by even more (maybe 3-5), due to lower ball possession, thus less TO's (and probably more steals, as well).

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