Why do so many top center prospects fail at the NBA level?

[Clippersfan86]

With all the hype surrounding Drummond I'm starting to think he's a huge risk for anyone to take with the top pick. Why? Dwight was the last dominant center taken and that was back in 2004. That means it will be 8 years by next years draft since a highly touted center prospect was worth the pick. Think about how many busts we've had like Thabeet that were hyped centers.

Bogut was a good number 1 selection but if he played in the 90's he wouldn't even be a top 10 center. So I guess my question is why are traditional back to the basket, dominant centers so rare? Seems like we get 2 or 3 a decade TOPS and that's in the best center eras. Why do they pan out less as prospects than wing players? It seems like wings are the safest bets with drafting BUT if you get lucky and land a Shaq, Kareem, D Rob etc.. you're set for a long time contending for championships. I can't think of a single dominant center who didn't win championships, usually multiple. So why are bigmen now working on a perimeter game instead?

I've never seen a face up center lead a team to a ring.

[TheFan]

because current rules, discourage back to the basket games while favoring front to the basket game... Centers grab boards, sets screen and take open jump shots....

nowadays Centers are mainly support players...

Also Kids want to be the next Kobe/Lebron... i doubt many want to be the next Dwight.

[G-train]

Dwight practically begged Brian Hill to let him play like Garnett, but Hill just told him to get stuffed and stay in the block.

[NuggetsFan]

That Thabeet pick was a GUARANTEED bust imo. I never once thought to myself he could ever be an All-Star center or anything more than a big man off the bench that blocks a shot or two. Pretty sure alot of people saw it, no idea why the Grizzlies picked him that high.

Anyways good point. Probably because the NBA lacks big men so much that when one that's half decent pops up people overrate them. Try to make them out to be something there not. When you think about it a potential center that could average 15\10\2? Would probably go top 3 in today's NBA.

[Clippersfan86]

because current rules, discourage back to the basket games while favoring front to the basket game... Centers grab boards, sets screen and take open jump shots....

nowadays Centers are mainly support players...

Also Kids want to be the next Kobe/Lebron... i doubt many want to be the next Dwight.

I agree current rules make it way harder to be a dominant back to the basket big but we see Dwight play in the post 95 percent of the time being successful at a very high level so why don't more bigs do it? Dwight already led his team to the finals, is considered the 1st or 2nd best player in the game and has won 3 straight DPOY awards and is usually considered the highest impact player in the game on both ends.

So I imagine my GM's and coaches would be teaching their guys to be more like Dwight and less like Bargnani. I just don't get it. It can't be that nobody is skilled at the back to the basket game anymore. It has to be what players are being taught and their lack of toughness.

[Clippersfan86]

That Thabeet pick was a GUARANTEED bust imo. I never once thought to myself he could ever be an All-Star center or anything more than a big man off the bench that blocks a shot or two. Pretty sure alot of people saw it, no idea why the Grizzlies picked him that high.

Anyways good point. Probably because the NBA lacks big men so much that when one that's half decent pops up people overrate them. Try to make them out to be something there not. When you think about it a potential center that could average 15\10\2? Would probably go top 3 in today's NBA.

Yup. Like Cousins. Great prospect and great potential right? I don't see him becoming an old fashioned back to the basket 20/13 and 3 blocks type player though like the dominant centers of the 90's. He actually is a very finesse player for his size and depends on his shooting range, great touch in the paint. When is the next center that's gonna be a straight banger going to come a long?

It's like coaches have to force these guys to get into the paint! I mean Drummond looks much closer to Amare than he does Shaq... yet people are proclaiming him the next great center? It's just troubling for me.

[LosBulls]

I agree current rules make it way harder to be a dominant back to the basket big but we see Dwight play in the post 95 percent of the time being successful at a very high level so why don't more bigs do it? Dwight already led his team to the finals, is considered the 1st or 2nd best player in the game and has won 3 straight DPOY awards and is usually considered the highest impact player in the game on both ends.

So I imagine my GM's and coaches would be teaching their guys to be more like Dwight and less like Bargnani. I just don't get it. It can't be that nobody is skilled at the back to the basket game anymore. It has to be what players are being taught and their lack of toughness.

Because Dwight is underrated. Dwight would of gone in the 90s and shitted on Mourning. Shaq and Hakeem would of been the only better centers.

[Clippersfan86]

Because Dwight is underrated. Dwight would of gone in the 90s and shitted on Mourning. Shaq and Hakeem would of been the only better centers.

I think most people acknowledge that Dwight is on the same tier as Mourning, some picking him, others Zo. No doubt he's a very good center. It just sucks that for probably the first era ever... a center is undisputed at the top. I mean the gap between Bogut and Howard is huge and Bogut is a good player. We need some of these center prospects to come in with that post presence.

Bynum has a chance but he's injury prone and is already in his 5th or 6th season. I mean nowadays guys can put up 12 and 7 and be considered top 3 centers. That's sad.

[Bernie Nips]

Oden's still a shot to make it. No one could possibly doubt his ability.

Goddamn knees.

[Clippersfan86]

Oden's still a shot to make it. No one could possibly doubt his ability.

Goddamn knees.

Oden is an excellent prospect but isn't this already his 4th or 5th season coming up? No chance he fully recovers and becomes a dominant center.

[Bernie Nips]

Oden is an excellent prospect but isn't this already his 4th or 5th season coming up? No chance he fully recovers and becomes a dominant center.

Last time he came back from a knee injury, he was putting up these stats (per 36):

16.7 ppg
12.8 rpg
3.4 bpg

So he's still a chance.

[Clippersfan86]

Last time he came back from a knee injury, he was putting up these stats (per 36):

16.7 ppg
12.8 rpg
3.4 bpg

So he's still a chance.

I remember it. I was rooting for the guy... problem is if you play a half a season out of 4 or 5... or w/e he's played.. it's hard to be optimistic. I mean I'm doubtful Bynum can stay healthy let alone Oden.

[G-train]

Because Dwight is underrated. Dwight would of gone in the 90s and shitted on Mourning. Shaq and Hakeem would of been the only better centers.

David Robinson and Patrick Ewing played in the 90's.
Mourning is better than Dwight at all facets of basketball, except perhaps rebounding. Hard to tell what prime Mourning would average in rebounding if he played on the current Magic, so he might be better at that too.

[Miserio]

because current rules, discourage back to the basket games while favoring front to the basket game... Centers grab boards, sets screen and take open jump shots....

nowadays Centers are mainly support players...

Also Kids want to be the next Kobe/Lebron... i doubt many want to be the next Dwight.

Nah. The rules have nothing to do with it. The actual centers are not tough nor talented enough to excel period. What you said about the kids is truth tho.

[eliteballer]

In the last 10 years who hasn't panned out?

Kandi was lazy and didnt love the game

Kwame: I'll give you

Yao: panned out

Dwight: panned out

Oden: Injuries

Bogut: Noted for being a weak draft, still a solid player, led league in blocks last year.

Bynum: would have been #1 pick, has panned out

Okafor: panned out