ESPN Insider: Finding a trade for Kyle Lowry

[bk33]

I don't have the article just hoping that someone has access to it, anyone?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...kyle-lowry-nba

[Legends66NBA7]

He's not getting traded. I'd think he would get re-signed by the team after the off season.

[Qwyjibo]

I'd like to see this too because I find it hard to think of any realistic trades for Lowry. He's a very good player playing at his highest level but he'd be nothing more than a rental for a few months. Most very good teams already have a PG and/or no assets to deal.

I don't think the Raptors will trade him though. They won't sacrifice the short-term profits for the rest of the year. Trading Lowry is basically giving up on this season. Even if Lowry leaves after this year, they can build this team to be a constant 1st round team that still remains profitable. In the end, that's all that matters to ownership and that's who Ujiri answers to.

[missionman]

Hate it. i'd rather take my chances at a decent playoff run than drop into 7th or 8th, get hammered in the first round, and STILL not have a high first rounder. Can't Masai do this.

"Finding a trade for Kyle Lowry The Raptors are squarely in the playoff mix, but they also have an asset to deal Updated: January 28, 2014, 11:37 AM ET By Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider 4 11 1 EMAIL PRINT Bulls vs. Raptors Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports Kyle Lowry has played a huge role in Toronto, but the Raptors could lose him for nothing. We're now just about three weeks from the February 20 trade deadline, which means fans get to enjoy increased chatter about trade rumors, hypothetical or otherwise, but also deal with the annoying fact that many of those trade ideas will serve the interests of one party in terms of actual on-court improvement, but not the other. But not all deals have to simply be a case of one team improving the present, the other storing away assets for the future.

That's what makes the situation in Toronto right now so interesting.

Last week, I took a look at a possible trade for Omer Asik that maintained some balance between present and future returns. This week, our player of emphasis is Kyle Lowry, a darkhorse All-Star candidate in the Eastern Conference who has led Toronto to a revival since the December 9th trade that sent Rudy Gay to Sacramento for spare parts. Lowry has been very good, but his impending free agency creates a concern about maximizing return on his good play before he could leave in free agency, balanced against the fact that Toronto is squarely in the playoff picture in the East.

Is getting something for Lowry worth diminishing a playoff run? Maybe it doesn't have to be. Here's a possible trade: Lowry is traded back to the team that traded him to Toronto, the Houston Rockets. Let's break down the player, and the deal.

Lowry The player: Kyle Lowry

Lowry, who will be 28 in March, is a small but sturdy point guard with a great first step and good basketball instincts. A vocal leader on the floor, Lowry straddles the line between "shoot-first" and "pass-first". He's aggressive in the pick and roll, looking to turn the corner and either get to the rim or force the defense to react and collapse, creating passing lanes. An adept passer with either hand, Lowry does a good job of checking off his passing options, and will seek to find the roll man, weakside fill guys or shooters in the corners. He's not shy about pulling up for the jumper all the way out to the 3-point line, and has steadily decreased his diet of shots from midrange over the years (either trying to get to the rim or pulling up from deep), and has made great strides in improving his accuracy outside the arc, shooting a career-high 40 percent this season.

Lowry's dribble penetration excels because of his compact stature, which allows him to keep his dribble low and tight. Combined with his first step and strong frame, he can get to the rim and finish through contact (shooting 59 percent in the restricted area). It also highlights one of his strong suits as a point guard: he rarely turns the ball over. Lowry's turnover percentage is less than 10 percent, which is remarkable for a player who handles the ball as much as he does and assists on 34 percent of his team's made field goals. Defensively, Lowry has the reputation of a bulldog, but that has subsided somewhat with his larger emphasis on offense. He has active hands on defense, and will look to strip the ball low if he's being posted up by a bigger opponent. He's not as committed as he once was to fighting over screens and staying solid on iso defense, choosing to call for switches or allowing his man to blow by him and then trying to poke the ball. But he's a smart defender, and does a good job of peeling if picked off and cracking back to the big if beaten by his man instead of giving up on the play.

Lowry is a fiery competitor who doesn't have an off switch, which makes him a very good player but can also rub players and staff the wrong way at times. I saw Lowry play in a semi-organized pick-up game at Villanova a few years ago, and was equally taken aback by hard he competed in such an informal environment and how hard he chewed out the volunteer referees on seemingly benign calls.

The trade fit: Houston

At 29-17, the Rockets are having a decent season, but decent isn't quite good enough in the hypercompetitive Western Conference, and so they find themselves 2.5 games behind the Clippers for homecourt advantage, and just 3 games ahead of Dallas for the 8th seed. They've had issues shoring up their perimeter defense, starting Patrick Beverley for much of the season despite his inconsistent 3P shooting, a necessity in the Rockets offense. They've also dealt with injuries in their backcourt, with Beverley, James Harden, and Jeremy Lin all missing time. Adding Lowry would give them a two-way player at point guard, who can halt the deluge of dribble penetration from that position while still remaining an offensive threat by 3P shot or dribble.

It should be noted that Houston already had Lowry, and are well aware of his personality quirks. There was friction with head coach Kevin McHale towards the end of Lowry's tenure in Houston, but much of this was centered around Lowry's loss of his starting role after returning from a bacterial infection that kept him sidelined for 15 games. After that, Lowry saw a 50 percent reduction in his minutes (from 35 to 18), field goal attempts (12.1 to 6.0), and points per game (15.9 to 7.4). Given how hard Lowry competes, it's easy to see how he would have been taken such a demotion badly, but there's no reason to believe both parties can't let bygones be bygones and move forward, especially with Lowry having the ability to play a significant role in Houston.

While the Raptors are currently deep in the playoff chase, they face a very real dilemma with Lowry's contract status. Since he is an unrestricted free agent, they stand a chance of losing him without compensation, and thus the assumption Toronto will look to move him but also get a good haul in return.

However, because of that expiring contract, teams are hesitant to give up significant assets for the same risk of losing Lowry, thus limiting what Toronto can expect in return, even if he makes the All-Star team. So, for the Raptors, there are two questions:
1.Could moving Lowry mean missing the playoffs?
2.Would we rather get something for him rather than risk getting nothing?

The trade

Houston sends to Toronto: Jeremy Lin, Ronnie Brewer, a 2014 2nd round pick (via NY), and the less favorable of 2015 2nd round pick (via NY) and the 2015 2nd round pick owed to Houston from Minnesota (which in turn is the less favorable of Minnesota and Denver 2nd round pick), plus cash considerations

Toronto sends to Houston: Kyle Lowry, Austin Daye

Houston has been trying to jettison Lin's contract for two reasons: they owe him $8.4 million on the books (which eats into their projected cap space), and he's owed a cash payment of almost $15 million. Despite bouncing back with a stronger statistical season offensively, his defensive struggles make it tough to play him and Harden at the same time, since Harden is so limited defensively as well. Trading Lin frees Houston from financial obligations in the future, while bringing back a complete player in Lowry. Austin Daye as a throw-in gives them a limited liability look at a gifted shooter with length who hasn't been able to make good on his draft-day promise; if he doesn't work out, his contract is only guaranteed for $250,000 next year.

For the Raptors, Lin's contract can be somewhat problematic. While the coffers of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment can easily foot the cash bill for Lin's balloon payment, the $8.4 million cap hit eats into their cap space for next year. Still, he's a productive point guard who can be an engine for the Raptors offense, particularly with pick and roll-heavy sets with Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. Lin's popularity in Toronto doesn't hurt as a fringe benefit, and he'd also be reuniting with ex-Knick teammates Steve Novak and Landry Fields.

Brewer's contract is completely non-guaranteed next year, so he is in essence an expiring deal. But the real assets are the second-round picks. Since the draft order in the second round goes by raw record (and not by non-playoff teams followed by playoff teams, as it does in the first round), the Knicks 2014 second rounder becomes highly coveted as a possible top-10 pick in the second round (high second rounders offer the value of comparable talent to the bottom of the first round without the restrictions and fixed costs of a rookie scale deal). Toronto is unlikely to find the first round pick it seeks for Lowry, so this is the next best thing. Throw in an additional second rounder in 2015 that has a chance to be relevant (less favorable of Denver, Minnesota and New York), and some cash to cover for the payroll increase for 2014, and Toronto has a significant haul for Lowry's expiring deal.

Standing in the way of this deal is the obvious issues with Lin's contract, coupled with Toronto's outsized desires for Lowry's deal. A possible deal sweetener might be the addition of Donatas Motiejunas, a stretch big who would fit well alongside fellow Lithuanian Valanciunas."

[Prodigy]

Hate it. i'd rather take my chances at a decent playoff run than drop into 7th or 8th, get hammered in the first round, and STILL not have a high first rounder. Can't Masai do this.

Define your standards of 'decent'.

[DJMason]

Trading Lowry at this point would be insane. All we'd end up doing is falling to like the 9-10th spot like we always do and get set up for a higher pick in a weaker draft next year. I was all for trading him back in December but doing so now unless it's for an insane return would be foolish both from a marketing and basketball standpoint.

Let's lock the guy up and see where this team can take us with Masai having a full offseason with a clearer vision for the team after (hopefully) taking out the Wiz in the first round.

[bluerap]

Masai's asking price before Lowry became an allstar was a prospect and a 1st rounder.

I doubt his price is going down now...


But I would consider Monroe and Jennings for Amir and KLow

[Jballer]

Hate it. i'd rather take my chances at a decent playoff run than drop into 7th or 8th, get hammered in the first round, and STILL not have a high first rounder. Can't Masai do this......

snip...

For the Raptors, Lin's contract can be somewhat problematic.

End of quote.

MU wont trade for "problematic contracts". Refer to Denver record.

Bottom line is "its a crap shoot". Will he stay will he go. [COLOR="Blue"]All the teams in the west - even Houston are set at PG. No deal can be done in the east with a team that potentially knocks you out of the playoffs....[/COLOR]

Play it out - the crap shoot.

At worst it changes the priority of our 2014 2015 draft selections. May force a move up or down to get a PG that management want....think Syracuse.

At best he resigns to become a nice building block with Vasq as back up. Toronto has the best 1-2 off style PGs in the eastern conference for a couple of years and we use mutliple draft picks, expiring contracts, and some talent to land a real impact player (draft or vet) to add to a core of Klow, Derozan, Val, Amir, Ross, Vasq, Big P.

[bk33]

well that's a disappointing proposal, is Jeremey Lin at 8M better than letting Lowry walk? maybe if we lose some dead weight in the process, like Landry Field's contract.

[A.M.G.]

Define your standards of 'decent'.

Winning a playoff round would be a "decent run" right now. This franchise has only ever won one playoff round. One. If we can make that number two this season, that is a significant accomplishment. It'd be nice if we could draft a superstar, and this does look like an awesome draft, but were we EVER going to be bad enough in this year's East?

Even with Gay we were probably a 7-8 seed, and even if we missed the playoffs it would have probably been a late lottery pick, missing out on the top 7 prospects this year (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Smart, Exum, LaVine), all of whom admittedly are likely All-Stars (it's a very strong draft ). Sometimes it's just not in the cards.

A few years of winning basketball, making the playoffs, will gain this franchise credibility, and maybe we can add that free agent or make that trade that puts us over the top. Give Masai time. He's already rid us of Bargnani and Gay, the man has skill.

As for Lowry, we're re-signing him. Like it or not, that shit is happening.

[Toni]

As for Lowry, we're re-signing him. Like it or not, that shit is happening.

He has definitely earned it and I hope it happens. He is young PG that pretty much does everything on the court. I just hope it's not a crazy amount of money.

I'm hoping for a 4 year, 32 million dollar deal.. but I think he might command even more money and years than that.

[T-Low]

Let's be realistic here. He is going to go after what Derozan is gettin at the very least.

[Toni]

Let's be realistic here. He is going to go after what Derozan is gettin at the very least.

So you are thinking a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal?

I would even be ok with this seeing as he is only 28 years old and right in the thick of his prime years.