Gary Johnson winning New Mexico in November?

[D.J.]

There is a possibility of a funky scenario next month. Right now, Gary Johnson has just shy of 1/4 of the votes in his home state of New Mexico. New Mexico has been a predominantly blue state in modern time, with the Democrats taking 5 of the last 6 elections. Trump isn't winning NM no matter what. But the feeling is that if GJ can get closer to 1/3, the majority of the votes he steals will be from Hillary not Trump. GJ taking New Mexico combined with Trump taking just 1 of the 7 swing states means it's entirely possible neither candidate reaches 270. In that case, it goes to the House of Reps with each state getting one vote and Trump most likely winning. However, this is Trump's only chance of winning.


It's unlikely to happen, but it's also more than a remote possibility. It is plausible and not terribly far fetched. Pretty crazy to think a third party candidate potentially having this much of an impact on the election.

[NumberSix]

I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.

[D.J.]

I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.

Right now it's 35-31-24, Hillary-Trump-Johnson. If GJ pushes closer to 1/3, it hurts Hillary far more than Trump. Trump will lose a few points(I'd say around 2), but Hillary would lose closer to 10. If Johnson finishes at 30, it could finish something like 30-29-26.

[FillJackson]

There is a possibility of a funky scenario next month. Right now, Gary Johnson has just shy of 1/4 of the votes in his home state of New Mexico. New Mexico has been a predominantly blue state in modern time, with the Democrats taking 5 of the last 6 elections. Trump isn't winning NM no matter what. But the feeling is that if GJ can get closer to 1/3, the majority of the votes he steals will be from Hillary not Trump. GJ taking New Mexico combined with Trump taking just 1 of the 7 swing states means it's entirely possible neither candidate reaches 270. In that case, it goes to the House of Reps with each state getting one vote and Trump most likely winning. However, this is Trump's only chance of winning.


It's unlikely to happen, but it's also more than a remote possibility. It is plausible and not terribly far fetched. Pretty crazy to think a third party candidate potentially having this much of an impact on the election.

When you say 1 of the swings states you mean Florida right? The biggest one?

New Mexico is only 5 electoral votes, Gary Johnson is 11 points behind in New Mexico.

So how does not getting to 270 happen?


The Upshot has the most likely scenario as Clinton with 322 votes. In that case she doesn't need NM. They also estimate there's a 2 percent chance of a tie.

[NumberSix]

I would actually rather see a tie than an outright Trump victory.

[FillJackson]

I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.

Which is different that the scenario he mentions, but Johnson still has both Trump and Clinton to overcome.

[FillJackson]

I would actually rather see a tie than an outright Trump victory.

We agree.

[FillJackson]

have you seen the 538 snake thingy?

right now with the definite blue and likely blue states, they have Colorado putting her over the top with 4 tossups leaning blue, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. They have up back up to 75% chance of winning and over 340 votes
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

[D.J.]

When you say 1 of the swings states you mean Florida right? The biggest one?

New Mexico is only 5 electoral votes, Gary Johnson is 11 points behind in New Mexico.

So how does not getting to 270 happen?


The Upshot has the most likely scenario as Clinton with 322 votes. In that case she doesn't need NM. They also estimate there's a 2 percent chance of a tie.

Trump leads in Ohio, Iowa, and trails by less than a point in Nevada. Taking all 3 is 30 points to Florida's. Losing Florida at that point isn't the end of the world. Taking Florida certainly makes his life easier but he's not automatically out if he loses it.

[FillJackson]

Trump leads in Ohio, Iowa, and trails by less than a point in Nevada. Taking all 3 is 30 points to Florida's. Losing Florida at that point isn't the end of the world. Taking Florida certainly makes his life easier but he's not automatically out if he loses it.

Right now if he loses Florida and PA, he's done.

Pollster has him down 5 points in PA which gives him the following odds among various pollsters.

Pennsylvania
86% D
80% D
83% D
97% D
91% D
80% D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D


So yeah, he needs Florida.

[qrich]

Why vote for the left nut or the right nut when you can have the whole Johnson?

[FillJackson]

just found a pic of the snake thingy

[Jasper]

I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.

Why vote for the left nut or the right nut when you can have the whole Johnson?

Putting Hitlary & Trumpster = my Johnson

[UK2K]

just found a pic of the snake thingy

Ha, that's pretty cool.

If Democrats didn't flood CA with border jumpers, they'd be ****ed.

[Micku]

Right now if he loses Florida and PA, he's done.

Pollster has him down 5 points in PA which gives him the following odds among various pollsters.

Pennsylvania
86% D
80% D
83% D
97% D
91% D
80% D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D


So yeah, he needs Florida.

Pretty much. The dude needs Florida. He had Colorado for a little bit there or it was tie. With that he was winning. But since then he lost his lead in Florida, Colorado, and NC, it's not looking good. Even with him winning Florida and NC, he still was losing.

And I'm curious to figure out the new polling of AZ. He was leading, but not by much. So, it's possible for him to lose there too.

He needs Florida to stay competitive. NC is still reachable. I don't really see Clinton losing PA but it's possible for Trump to turn it around. The average polling in PA was like 4.4 for Clinton side? The recent ones had her above 10 points.

Ha, that's pretty cool.

If Democrats didn't flood CA with border jumpers, they'd be ****ed.

lol! That's the west coast wall. But what about Texas doe? Texas is only 6 points for Trump. In comparison to Cali, they are hardcore blue and with 20 points for Clinton last time they polled. And I keep hearing that Texas is becoming more and more blue.

Will this be it tho? I mean, damn man. And all of the polls showed before the debate. I'll be shocked as hell if Texas turn blue. That's overkill.