List of 1st round picks owned by the OKC Thunder

[coin24]

Jimmy butler, Rudy Gobert, bojan bogdanovic, Kyle kuzma, Larry nance, Kevon looney, Pascal siakam, dejounte murray, Derrick white, Josh hart, Landry shamet....you want me to go on??

And this is only from the past 7ish years. You're so wrong it's not even funny.


And all those picks were picks 26-30 in the first round, so we are assuming that houston/miami/lac will all be top 4 teams for the next 7 years and be forced to pick 26-30 lmfao.


Having this amount of picks is a huge win, anyone arguing that it isnt is clueless.

You know what's better than a handful of picks, which are 99% not superstars, an actual superstar player

That's why teams would happily trade any amount of picks for one. It's a Superstar league. And being a small market like OKC means they won't be attracting many free agents, especially now.

I'm not saying they could have gotten much better than what they did for Russ, let's see what they can flip Chris small for first.

[chains5000]

You know what's better than a handful of picks, which are 99% not superstars, an actual superstar player

That's why teams would happily trade any amount of picks for one. It's a Superstar league. And being a small market like OKC means they won't be attracting many free agents, especially now.

I'm not saying they could have gotten much better than what they did for Russ, let's see what they can flip Chris small for first.

By your logic, it's good for a small market team to build through the draft, as they won't attract free agents and, as 99% of the picks turn out not to be superstars, then it's great to have as many picks as possible, right?

[coin24]

By your logic, it's good for a small market team to build through the draft, as they won't attract free agents and, as 99% of the picks turn out not to be superstars, then it's great to have as many picks as possible, right?

Didn't the thunder cheap out over $4m and lost harden??

They need to grab onto a star and not let go.. they seem to scout well so they do have that going for them.

[chains5000]

Didn't the thunder cheap out over $4m and lost harden??

They need to grab onto a star and not let go.. they seem to scout well so they do have that going for them.

That was a choice they made that turned out wrong, but it's not like there are also teams that decide to pay players and then regret it too.
As for letting Harden go, IMO they had to get rid of someone, just chose the wrong player.
Also, they're not the only team who's made a mistake not paying someone, remember Dallas and Nash, for example.

[iamgine]

I'd estimate on pick 11-30,

- 1% becomes MVP level player
- 9% becomes Stars
- 15% becomes Good role players
- 25% becomes Average role player
- 50% becomes Below average or busts

[Bosnian Sajo]

I'd estimate on pick 11-30,

- 1% becomes MVP level player
- 9% becomes Stars
- 15% becomes Good role players
- 25% becomes Average role player
- 50% becomes Below average or busts

Lemme get to work and I'll be sure to test your statistics.

[chains5000]

Lemme get to work and I'll be sure to test your statistics.

[Bosnian Sajo]

What can I say, I'm blessed with a lot of free time at work Can't complain.

[DMAVS41]

You know what's better than a handful of picks, which are 99% not superstars, an actual superstar player

That's why teams would happily trade any amount of picks for one. It's a Superstar league. And being a small market like OKC means they won't be attracting many free agents, especially now.

I'm not saying they could have gotten much better than what they did for Russ, let's see what they can flip Chris small for first.

So what is the counterfactual?

You want them to keep a core that they can't improve upon because of the cap situation that they know can't win instead of saving a ton of money, getting a really good prospect in SGA...in addition to 8 extra first round picks...and they aren't even done yet.

You'd rather them lose in the first round 1 for the next 3 years and have virtually no future at all for a team in a market that nobody wants to play for?

Please...tell us your plan.

Again, Presti has made mistakes. Not getting shooting around his teams post 2012 was a big mistake. But even with that and the Harden trade...the Thunder had an overall elite roster for years...and KD still left. Why? Well, in part because playing in OKC can't compare to playing in a more desirable market.

Giannis might be on that same path. He has a really good team around him...not as good as KD's Thunder, but close imo...and I bet there is a 50% chance he leaves.

If you aren't a free agent destination...you have to build through the draft or trades...

[chains5000]

What can I say, I'm blessed with a lot of free time at work Can't complain.

I do post from work too

[Bosnian Sajo]

I'd estimate on pick 11-30,

- 1% becomes MVP level player
- 9% becomes Stars
- 15% becomes Good role players
- 25% becomes Average role player
- 50% becomes Below average or busts

The draft years I used are 2011, 2012, and 2013...so picks 11-30 through a 3 years range, 60 players.

- 3.33% becomes MVP level player
- 8.33% becomes Stars
- 30% becomes Good role players
- 21.6% becomes Average role player
- 36.6% becomes Below average or busts

So your numbers aren't too far off at all for MVP level, Star level, and Average...but there were double the amount of good role players than what you claimed and a lot less busts, although still the most prevalent group (as expected).

Mind you, guys like Steven Adams, Nikola Mirotic, Tim Hardaway jr etc. are among the good role players, these are guys that could be difference makers around a star.

[Bosnian Sajo]

So based off of those statistics alone, the Thunder have a 41.66% chance of drafting a good role player or better with late picks. These statistics get bumped big time the more picks you have in each draft, having 3 picks in a draft instead of 1 greatly increase your chance at drafting one of these players. If anyone has the formula for # of attempts (its like a calculus formula..or maybe stats formula, idk too lazy to go search) I can plug the numbers and give you a more accurate percentage of the Thunder selecting one of these players.


MIND YOU, this is assuming that ALL these picks the Thunder have accumulated are going to be pick 11-30, which I highly doubt. Surely they will have at least a couple of top 10 picks.

[iamgine]

Can we see the list of good role players?

Does the percentage change significantly when we get more samples? Maybe a 10 year period? 60 samples seems a bit low.

[DMAVS41]

So based off of those statistics alone, the Thunder have a 41.66% chance of drafting a good role player or better with late picks. These statistics get bumped big time the more picks you have in each draft, having 3 picks in a draft instead of 1 greatly increase your chance at drafting one of these players. If anyone has the formula for # of attempts (its like a calculus formula..or maybe stats formula, idk too lazy to go search) I can plug the numbers and give you a more accurate percentage of the Thunder selecting one of these players.


MIND YOU, this is assuming that ALL these picks the Thunder have accumulated are going to be pick 11-30, which I highly doubt. Surely they will have at least a couple of top 10 picks.

And that is solely talking about the picks as draft capital.

They also function as trade capital as well.

[Bosnian Sajo]

Can we see the list of good role players?

Does the percentage change significantly when we get more samples? Maybe a 10 year period? 60 samples seems a bit low.

I'm not doing a 10 year period for you lmfao, that's 200 players. I listed some of em for you, feel free to go look for yourself from 2011-2013.

I gave you some examples. Other examples of good role players: Evan Fournier, Mason Plumlee, Morris twins, Cory Joseph, Reggie Jackson...off the top of my head, go look for yourself if you wanna fact check each and every selection.


2011 - Pretty deep draft

2012 - Not good at all really

2013 - Normal draft