Request: ESPN - Zeller leads list of future breakout stars

[fos]

Future rep.

[russwest0]

He'll never be a star with that wingspan.

[ralph_i_el]

He'll never be a star with that wingspan.

about the same as bg

[russwest0]

about the same as bg

Same wingspan as BG + two inches taller than BG. Even worse wingspan than BG.

Plus doesn't have jump out of the gym ability like Griffin does.

[ralph_i_el]

Same wingspan as BG + two inches taller than BG. Even worse wingspan than BG.

Plus doesn't have jump out of the gym ability like Griffin does.

better jumper than BG had at that age. Nobody is expecting him to be as good as BG is now.

[fos]

It's the curse of the white man. Quickness and leaping ability is great, but in basketball length is the much more important trait and blacks are longer on average (insert joke here) for environmental reasons. NBA needs to make basketball played in the snow to compensate for this unfair evolutionary advantage.

[irondarts]

Here:

The San Antonio Spurs look unbeatable these days, both literally and figuratively. After steamrolling the no-longer-leading-the-East Indiana Pacers on the road on Monday, the Spurs have won 18 straight and put a stranglehold on the race for the NBA's best record. It's no small coincidence that the streak began on Feb. 26, the night Kawhi Leonard returned from a broken finger.

San Antonio is 50-9 when Leonard plays this season, a pace that translates to 69 wins over 82 games. Even that doesn't do justice to San Antonio's average margin of victory since Leonard returned: a whopping 16.6 points. Leonard's mere presence is part of the story, as he further solidified a rotation that was already functioning at a high level. But Leonard has provided more than presence; he's been one of the league's 20 best players since the All-Star break, and has posted a team-high 2.9 WARP during the streak.

Given Leonard's age (22) and terrific recent play, it's easy to mark him as a breakout candidate next season, in the way that Paul George has been for most of 2013-14. After all, Leonard merely needs to translate what he's been doing over a full campaign.

Is it really that straight forward? Almost without exception, looking at subsets of data is less reliable than looking at the larger sample. However, trends are to be found in those subsets. So it's fair to ask: Can we identify breakout candidates based on late-season improvement?

Forecasting breakouts

In general, the answer is no. The larger sample of a full season's worth of games has a much higher level of predictability than any subset of games. I looked at the last six years' worth of results and calculated post-All-Star WARP for every player who had at least 300 minutes played overall, 100 minutes after the break and 300 minutes the following season. Total season individual winning percentage has about a 7 percent higher correlation with the following season's performance than post-All-Star performance.

If you break that down further to look at players whose performance jumped by at least 5 percent, the correlations are even weaker. Overall performance was about 21 percent more reliable than the late-season figure. That suggests that for the most part, a player enjoying a markedly higher level of performance late in the season is going to regress toward his career norms when the next campaign rolls around.

However, there is an even smaller subset of players in which late breakouts seem to portend a strong uptick the following season: the young guys. In a nutshell, if a player is under 25 years old and has a post-All-Star winning percentage that is at least 5 percent higher than his season mark, he's about 67 percent likely to retain, or even expand upon, the improved percentage.

Armed with these figures, let's look at the players this season who meet our breakout criteria: They are under 25, and have upped their performance since the All-Star break by at least 5 percent.


1. Cody Zeller

Post-All-Star-break improvement percentage: 17.5 | Age: 22

Zeller's translated college performance had me touting him as a Rookie of the Year candidate, but he struggled for most of the season. He's lived up to the billing of late, ranking second in post-All-Star WARP to a player a couple of spots down on the list. His playing time hasn't changed, but his true shooting percentage has jumped from .445 to .588.


2. Tobias Harris

Improvement percentage: 12.0 | Age: 22

Harris has become more efficient over the course of this season, with a .594 true shooting percentage over his last 20 games.


3. Gorgui Dieng

Improvement percentage: 10.4 | Age: 24

Dieng leads all rookies in WARP since the All-Star break as his playing time has increased due to the absence of Nikola Pekovic. He's averaged 12.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and shot 59.2 percent as a starter.


4. Kawhi Leonard

Improvement percentage: 9.2 | Age: 23

Leonard has upped his individual winning percentage to .692 since the break, improving his season mark to .600. Only Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis have posted a higher percentage for the season than Leonard has over the last five weeks. Further, he has shot 48.2 percent from deep over his last 18 games -- all of which the Spurs have won.


5. Ryan Kelly

Improvement percentage: 8.0 | Age: 23

Kelly is turning out to be one of the steals of the draft, and has ranked third in rookie WARP since the break.


6. Kyle O'Quinn

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 24

O'Quinn has sneakily become an efficient bench player, and occasional starter, as his playing time has become more consistent.


7. Kelly Olynyk

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 23

Olynyk has a fine .573 true shooting percentage on an above-average volume since the break, and has averaged 16.3 points per 36 minutes during that stretch.

8. Derrick Favors

Improvement percentage: 6.7 | Age: 23

Favors' improvement as a pro has been gradual, but his recent play suggests he's ready to jump to a higher plateau. And in good news for Jazz fans, Utah has been less terrible lately when Favors and Enes Kanter share the floor.


9. Terrence Ross

Improvement percentage: 6.3 | Age: 23

Ross has posted above-average true shooting percentages in every month since taking over for Rudy Gay, and with his tremendous raw athleticism, he looks like a player who can do more. His recent play suggests he is ready to do so.


10. Evan Fournier

Improvement percentage: 6.0 | Age: 21

Fournier has been a personal favorite for a while, though his overall performance still isn't starter-worthy. His recent uptick tells me his time is coming.


11. Dion Waiters

Improvement percentage: 5.5 | Age: 22

Waiters has flourished with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, averaging 22 points over eight games as a starter, though he's proved to be a little too tilted toward volume as opposed to efficiency.

Morris

12. Markieff Morris

Improvement percentage: 5.1 | Age: 25

No player has logged more minutes as a reserve. Morris has averaged 16.7 points on a sterling .617 true shooting percentage since the break, all off the bench. Phoenix has outscored opponents with him on the floor in 16 of his last 23 outings.

[PacerRaptor]

That list is horrible. Waitors should be much higher. Where's Drummond? Kanter?

[tontoz]

That list is horrible. Waitors should be much higher. Where's Drummond? Kanter?

RIF

[DuMa]

Ryan Kelly
is this a joke?

[LAZERUSS]

The San Antonio Spurs look unbeatable these days, both literally and figuratively. After steamrolling the no-longer-leading-the-East Indiana Pacers on the road on Monday, the Spurs have won 18 straight and put a stranglehold on the race for the NBA's best record. It's no small coincidence that the streak began on Feb. 26, the night Kawhi Leonard returned from a broken finger.

San Antonio is 50-9 when Leonard plays this season, a pace that translates to 69 wins over 82 games. Even that doesn't do justice to San Antonio's average margin of victory since Leonard returned: a whopping 16.6 points. Leonard's mere presence is part of the story, as he further solidified a rotation that was already functioning at a high level. But Leonard has provided more than presence; he's been one of the league's 20 best players since the All-Star break, and has posted a team-high 2.9 WARP during the streak.

Given Leonard's age (22) and terrific recent play, it's easy to mark him as a breakout candidate next season, in the way that Paul George has been for most of 2013-14. After all, Leonard merely needs to translate what he's been doing over a full campaign.

Is it really that straight forward? Almost without exception, looking at subsets of data is less reliable than looking at the larger sample. However, trends are to be found in those subsets. So it's fair to ask: Can we identify breakout candidates based on late-season improvement?

Forecasting breakouts

In general, the answer is no. The larger sample of a full season's worth of games has a much higher level of predictability than any subset of games. I looked at the last six years' worth of results and calculated post-All-Star WARP for every player who had at least 300 minutes played overall, 100 minutes after the break and 300 minutes the following season. Total season individual winning percentage has about a 7 percent higher correlation with the following season's performance than post-All-Star performance.

If you break that down further to look at players whose performance jumped by at least 5 percent, the correlations are even weaker. Overall performance was about 21 percent more reliable than the late-season figure. That suggests that for the most part, a player enjoying a markedly higher level of performance late in the season is going to regress toward his career norms when the next campaign rolls around.

However, there is an even smaller subset of players in which late breakouts seem to portend a strong uptick the following season: the young guys. In a nutshell, if a player is under 25 years old and has a post-All-Star winning percentage that is at least 5 percent higher than his season mark, he's about 67 percent likely to retain, or even expand upon, the improved percentage.

Armed with these figures, let's look at the players this season who meet our breakout criteria: They are under 25, and have upped their performance since the All-Star break by at least 5 percent.


1. Cody Zeller

Post-All-Star-break improvement percentage: 17.5 | Age: 22

Zeller's translated college performance had me touting him as a Rookie of the Year candidate, but he struggled for most of the season. He's lived up to the billing of late, ranking second in post-All-Star WARP to a player a couple of spots down on the list. His playing time hasn't changed, but his true shooting percentage has jumped from .445 to .588.


2. Tobias Harris

Improvement percentage: 12.0 | Age: 22

Harris has become more efficient over the course of this season, with a .594 true shooting percentage over his last 20 games.


3. Gorgui Dieng

Improvement percentage: 10.4 | Age: 24

Dieng leads all rookies in WARP since the All-Star break as his playing time has increased due to the absence of Nikola Pekovic. He's averaged 12.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and shot 59.2 percent as a starter.


4. Kawhi Leonard

Improvement percentage: 9.2 | Age: 23

Leonard has upped his individual winning percentage to .692 since the break, improving his season mark to .600. Only Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis have posted a higher percentage for the season than Leonard has over the last five weeks. Further, he has shot 48.2 percent from deep over his last 18 games -- all of which the Spurs have won.


5. Ryan Kelly

Improvement percentage: 8.0 | Age: 23

Kelly is turning out to be one of the steals of the draft, and has ranked third in rookie WARP since the break.


6. Kyle O'Quinn

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 24

O'Quinn has sneakily become an efficient bench player, and occasional starter, as his playing time has become more consistent.


7. Kelly Olynyk

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 23

Olynyk has a fine .573 true shooting percentage on an above-average volume since the break, and has averaged 16.3 points per 36 minutes during that stretch.

8. Derrick Favors

Improvement percentage: 6.7 | Age: 23

Favors' improvement as a pro has been gradual, but his recent play suggests he's ready to jump to a higher plateau. And in good news for Jazz fans, Utah has been less terrible lately when Favors and Enes Kanter share the floor.


9. Terrence Ross

Improvement percentage: 6.3 | Age: 23

Ross has posted above-average true shooting percentages in every month since taking over for Rudy Gay, and with his tremendous raw athleticism, he looks like a player who can do more. His recent play suggests he is ready to do so.


10. Evan Fournier

Improvement percentage: 6.0 | Age: 21

Fournier has been a personal favorite for a while, though his overall performance still isn't starter-worthy. His recent uptick tells me his time is coming.


11. Dion Waiters

Improvement percentage: 5.5 | Age: 22

Waiters has flourished with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, averaging 22 points over eight games as a starter, though he's proved to be a little too tilted toward volume as opposed to efficiency.

Morris

12. Markieff Morris

Improvement percentage: 5.1 | Age: 25

No player has logged more minutes as a reserve. Morris has averaged 16.7 points on a sterling .617 true shooting percentage since the break, all off the bench. Phoenix has outscored opponents with him on the floor in 16 of his last 23 outings.

The future of the NBA is truly bleak...

[outbreak]

The future of the NBA is truly bleak...

except for orlando, their future is so bright you have to wear sunglasses when contemplating it.