Jeremy Lin 2012-2013 salary prediction thread

[just_NONchalant]

It might be a little too early to tell but what do you guys predict he will get offered next year? With Lin playing so well this last week and linsanity erupting, his stock value has obviously risen. Will he be able to sustain it? how much (or little) do you guys think he'll get after its all said and done?

He's currently guaranteed a little under $800K this year. The average NBA salary is around $5.15M


Edit: what do you think his stock value is worth?

[Vienceslav]

Is he one of the few[or the only] NBA player who could actually make more money if he pursued a career in his major rather than playing in the league?

[EoJ]

Is he one of the few[or the only] NBA player who could actually make more money if he pursued a career in his major rather than playing in the league?

no

[bluechox2]

The Contract Statuses of Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields

February 8th, 2012 by Brian Cronin | @Brian_Cronin | Comments | Permalink |

While obviously it is too soon to tell if Jeremy Lin is going to continue his standout play for the New York Knicks, I figured that there was enough uncertainty among the readers about Lin’s future status with the Knicks that I would detail the situation (and discuss Landry Fields’ future, as well).

The Knicks are about to guarantee Jeremy Lin’s full salary, which is a one-year contract for roughly $800,000. Landy Fields, meanwhile, is on the second year of a two-year contract paying him roughly $800,000 a year. Both Lin and Fields will be free agents at the end of this season.

Before I discuss anything, note that the Knicks are over the salary cap for next season but will not be at the luxury tax level. Therefore, they will have both the Bi-Annual Exception (roughly $2 million) and the full mid-level (roughly $5 million) as exceptions (on top of the ability to pay any free agent the minimum salary for that player, which is how they signed Baron Davis and Mike Bibby).

Now on to Lin and Fields. The difference between the two is that Fields is eligible for the so-called “Early Bird Exception,” since he has played for the Knicks for two seasons. Lin, on the other hand, has only played one season for the Knicks and is therefore not eligible for any Bird Rights protections.

As an Early Bird player, Fields can be offered a contract that starts at 175% of his current salary or anything up to the average NBA salary (which is roughly $5 million). They can pay Fields this money without affecting their mid-level exception. However, if Fields just signs a one year deal for anything up to the average salary, then the following season the Knicks will have his full Bird Rights and then can re-sign him to a salary larger than the average salary. It really depends on how well Fields plays the rest of the year to determine what kind of deal he signs.

Lin, however, is not an Early Bird player since he has only played one year for the Knicks (while he is in the second year of a two-year deal, Bird Rights are re-set when a player is waived, as Lin has been twice. From Larry Coon’s invaluable Salary Cap FAQ, “If a player is waived and is claimed by another team before he clears waivers, then his Bird clock resets.” Had Lin been traded from the Warriors to the Knicks, he would have Early Bird status like Fields. Instead, the Warriors waived him, as did the Rockets). Therefore, if the Knicks want to re-sign him, they would have to use one of the following:

1. The Non-Bird Exception, where they could pay him up to 125% of his current salary (or roughly $1 million) (Non-Bird Exceptions are typically 120% of a player’s current salary, but since Lin is a restricted free agent, he is eligible for an extra 5% as a qualifying offer)
2. The Bi-Annual exception (which is roughly $2 million) or
3. However much of the mid-level (which is roughly $5 million) they would need to re-sign him.

This is bad news in the sense that if Lin plays well enough to be worth more than the Bi-Annual exception, the Knicks would be in a position where they would have to dip into the mid-level to pay him and if they do that, well, it is hard enough to get Steve Nash to come play for just the mid-level, see what he would do if you couldn’t even offer him $3 million. It wouldn’t be pretty.

One additional wrinkle is the ability of other teams to snatch Fields and Lin away from the Knicks. Both Fields and Lin are technically restricted free agents. However, due to the so-called “Gilbert Arenas provision,” other teams are limited in what they can offer Fields and Lin. They can only offer them up to the full mid-level. In the case of Fields, they Knicks would be able to match any offer and not have to touch their own mid-level exception (since they have Early Bird Rights on Fields). With Lin, though, they’d have to dip into their mid-level exception.

So, as things stand, Fields is pretty much guaranteed to be a Knick next season if the Knicks want him (which they certainly seem to) while Lin…it is tricky. If he plays this well for the rest of the season, I suppose the Knicks would pretty much have to pick him over Steve Nash, right? In that case, if I’m Lin, I’m asking for the full mid-level for 2 years at which point he would be eligible for full Bird Rights (since he would have been on the Knicks for three straight years) and then he could get a substantial raise. I guess he could also be more conservative and just say the full mid-level period for five years. The trouble comes in if he plays somewhere in between great and mediocre. If he’s good enough to make more than the Bi-Annual exception (roughly $2 million) but not good enough that you’d want to pass on Steve Nash, then I guess they’d lose him if anyone offers him more than the Bi-Annual Exception. However, if the Knicks want to keep him at all costs (as in using the entire mid-level on him), they can. It’s going to be interesting to see how it turns out.

Thanks to the man, the myth, the legend Larry Coon and his Salary Cap FAQ for the ground rules of this discussion. Read them for some other tricky stuff about the Gilbert Arenas provision that have not, to my knowledge, ever come up before so I didn’t address them but I guess they could (like how a team can backload a contract for a player like Fields so that the overall deal could be 4 years/$40 million).

EDITED TO ADD: Despite saying in his FAQ “If a player is waived and is claimed by another team before he clears waivers, then his Bird clock resets,” Larry Coon now says that if that happens, a player does not lose his Bird Rights. If that is the case, then the Knicks would, in fact, own Lin’s Early Bird Rights. In which case they can do the same thing with Lin that they can do with Fields, which is to say that he can be signed for any amount up to the mid-level salary without having to touch the Knicks’ own mid-level exeception (and other teams would be limited to offering the mid-level for Lin, so the Knicks could match if they wish).

this

[Sarcastic]

The Knicks just guaranteed his contract for $800k. That's better than he would make in his first few years in finance.

[KBryant24]

[QUOTE]This is bad news in the sense that if Lin plays well enough to be worth more than the Bi-Annual exception, the Knicks would be in a position where they would have to dip into the mid-level to pay him and if they do that, well, it is hard enough to get Steve Nash to come play for just the mid-level, see what he would do if you couldn

[9512]

He made some fans in the process ( of all races). Ability is not the only thing that factors in for contracts.

[just_NONchalant]

this

Good info but bummers to him. In that case, What do you guys think his stock value is worth then if you didnt take into consideration of above.

[lakers87]

That Harvard econ degree isn't going away. The guy's what 23,24 years old? Even if he isn't following the market as closely as GS 1st year analyst, I don't think he'll have a problem getting a job at any of the bulge brackets. Factor in his ethnicity and just the PR involved, that's risk mitigation at the highest.

But instead of working as full time associate, if I were him, I would leverage this in becoming an independent rainmaker. Structure it as a JV with SPV's or SPAC's with the amount of money that NBA players make, perhaps we'd hear less about nba players going broke couple years into their retirement.

[niko]

If he plays this well he'll start, and we won't need Nash. The fact we cannot afford Nash makes me giddy. I don't want Phoenix Suns east. I don't want MDA security blanket.

This to me is a no brainer, if he keeps playing like this, pay him, if he does not, we won't care.

[GOBB]

such bullshit
so if lin continues to average 20-10 the rest of the year he would only be able to make the mid level exception. he can't even leave the knicks to sign a larger deal at all.

Hardly BS considering Lin wont come close do doing what your scenerio presents.

[bagelred]

My understanding is Fields is restricted but Lin is not. HOWEVER, Knicks do have Lin's Early Bird rights.

Lin was not picked up in free agency. He was picked up off WAIVERS. So my understanding is that's just like as if he was traded to the Knicks. Therefore, Knicks have Lin's early Bird Rights. But even Larry Coon, NBA Salary Cap expert, isn't sure what happens with Lin exactly.

[1rkrage]

MAX

[bluechox2]

MAX

the max he can get is the mle from any team, and the knicks can match that offer and it wont eat their own mle

[bagelred]

the max he can get is the mle from any team, and the knicks can match that offer and it wont eat their own mle

Lin is not restricted. He was not a draft pick, remember? He got a 2 year contract from GSW and that's it. So now he's unrestricted. There isn't any "matching".

However, I believe Knicks have Early Bird rights so they can give Lin what they want and not use other exceptions.