The Second Pick

[LosBulls]

Has anybody noticed that for who knows how long, we have had players who haven't lived up to expectations between the #1 and #2 Picks?

I'm starting to believe it isn't a coincidence. It Isn't. Teams simply LOVE to take risks and go for the guy they think has the most potential over the already established one, and end up paying for it. The #1 and #2 ALWAYS,ALWAYS, come down to Potential Vs Established.

If enough GMs knew this, we would have these soft ass euro players (Sorry Pekovic) being drafted where they belong. And it's not their fault, it's the dumb ass GMs who draft them and continue to not only play them, but pay them 10s of millions of dollars by taking a RISK again thinking they will come through.

This right here I like to call, The Kwame Choice.

I'll explain this post by taking you through the last decade of drafts:

2011 Draft: Derrick Williams (Hes good, but he hasn't lived up to the hype being benched behind a former second pick Michael Beasley)

2010 Draft: Evan Turner (Hes been getting minutes, but also hasn't lived up to the hype)

2009: Hasheem Thabeet (Nuff said, couple D-League trips)

2008: Michael Beasley (Once pinned to be one of the best PFs in the NBA, yet still a good player, not as good as a lot of his classmates)

2007: Kevin Durant[COLOR="Red"]*[/COLOR] (The 1st Pick goes to the "potential" guy Greg Oden over the best choice again)

2006: LaMarcus Aldridge[COLOR="Red"]*[/COLOR] (The 1st Pick goes to the "potential" guy Andrea Bargnani)

2005: Marvin Williams (Marvin Williams over Deron and CP3)

2004: Emeka Okafor (Magic almost picked him over Dwight)

2003: Darko Milicic (Haha)

2002: Jay Williams (If only Houston would of let Yao Ming slide to the Bulls with the 2nd Pick)


Funny how Portland could of had Aldridge and Durant if they would of played it safe the following draft also.

[Punpun]

But.. Derick Williams wasn't the first pick.

[LosBulls]

Maybe if you read the title and the thread you would know what i'm talking about.

[DMV2]

4 of those 10 guys came from powerhouse college schools, UCONN, UNC, Duke (combined for 5 national title in the last 10 years). Might be wise not to draft a Top 3 pick from those schools.

Lawson and Gay might be the two best picks from those school this in the past 6 or 7 years but neither are All-Star players. They're good but not all-stars.

[LosBulls]

4 of those 10 guys came from powerhouse college schools, UCONN, UNC, Duke (combined for 5 national title in the last 10 years). Might be wise not to draft a Top 3 pick from those schools.

Lawson and Gay might be the two best picks from those school this in the past 6 or 7 years but neither are All-Star players. They're good but not all-stars.

Good observation but haven't DeMarCus Cousin/John Wall/Irving came from Kentucky?

Seems to be that the powerhouse schools only produce #1 Picks and the second guy isn't worth it.

[Punpun]

Maybe if you read the title and the thread you would know what i'm talking about.

I did. I don't see your point. Durant is definitely better than Derrick. Even in his rookie year. What's your point ?

[DMV2]

Good observation but haven't DeMarCus Cousin/John Wall/Irving came from Kentucky?

Seems to be that the powerhouse schools only produce #1 Picks and the second guy isn't worth it.

I guess that's true but Coach Cal was never a winner until this year. And those guys are all one and done, meaning they would have never played in Kentucky(DMC, Wall) or Memphis(Rose) if the 19+ age rule wasn't in tact.

Irving is from Duke. A very rare success NBA level Dukie but it's still hs rookie season so we gotta see if he is good or pans out in a few years.

[LosBulls]

I guess that's true but Coach Cal was never a winner until this year. And those guys are all one and done, meaning they would have never played in Kentucky(DMC, Wall) or Memphis(Rose) if the 19+ age rule wasn't in tact.

Irving is from Duke. A very rare success NBA level Dukie but it's still hs rookie season so we gotta see if he is good or pans out in a few years.

Sorry don't follow college that much. From the looks of things the odds are against Austin Rivers and atleast one of the guys from Kentucky is going to bust.

[LosBulls]

I did. I don't see your point. Durant is definitely better than Derrick. Even in his rookie year. What's your point ?

What the **** are you talking about? Nobody's comparing Derrick Williams to Durant.

The point is, Derrick isn't living up to expectations and that every draft year one of the #1 and #2 picks doesn't live up either.


You are obviously retarded and can't read, so please go to another thread and let the grown men discuss this interesting subject.

[Punpun]

I still don't understand. Why are you equalizing the seocnd pick as the established. When D-will is having a meh season like a lot of others here ?

And on the other hand you act like the #1 is only drafted on potential when there have been plenty of good first pick those last years.

[LosBulls]

I still don't understand. Why are you equalizing the seocnd pick as the established. When D-will is having a meh season like a lot of others here ?

And on the other hand you act like the #1 is only drafted on potential when there have been plenty of good first pick those last years.

You are really dumb, aren't you?

It's either one of the #1 or #2 that doesn't live up to the hype you dumb piece of shit. It isn't very hard to grasp.

In every draft ONE of the 1-2 Picks will live up the hype and the OTHER will not. I had to simply it to you 3 times, if you still don't understand the I suggest you quit these forums and go further your education sir.

[Punpun]

I'm quoting you.

The #1 and #2 ALWAYS,ALWAYS, come down to Potential Vs Established.
.

Here, you clearly establish #1=Potential, #2=Established. Which is wrong as seen by the players you brought up.

Not my fault you can't write.

[Jasi]

First of all, I don't understand why you mention the 2006 and 2007 drafts, no one of the 4 guys concerned is a bust (in the case of Oden, we just don't know).

Secondly, I think that 50/50 is just a normal distribution of win/fail in the inherent risk that you take whenever you draft.
No one is really "established", all draftees are "potential".

[LamarOdom]

I have thought about that second pick a lot of times. Damn how bad Grizz f*cked up with that Darko draft.

About Greg Oden if he would have staid healthy he probably would be competing with Howard over that best Center honour, if the draft was today i still pick him first or second.

[Owl]

Has anybody noticed that for who knows how long, we have had players who haven't lived up to expectations between the #1 and #2 Picks?

I'm starting to believe it isn't a coincidence. It Isn't. Teams simply LOVE to take risks and go for the guy they think has the most potential over the already established one, and end up paying for it. The #1 and #2 ALWAYS,ALWAYS, come down to Potential Vs Established.

If enough GMs knew this, we would have these soft ass euro players (Sorry Pekovic) being drafted where they belong. And it's not their fault, it's the dumb ass GMs who draft them and continue to not only play them, but pay them 10s of millions of dollars by taking a RISK again thinking they will come through.

This right here I like to call, The Kwame Choice.

I'll explain this post by taking you through the last decade of drafts:

2011 Draft: Derrick Williams (Hes good, but he hasn't lived up to the hype being benched behind a former second pick Michael Beasley)

2010 Draft: Evan Turner (Hes been getting minutes, but also hasn't lived up to the hype)

2009: Hasheem Thabeet (Nuff said, couple D-League trips)

2008: Michael Beasley (Once pinned to be one of the best PFs in the NBA, yet still a good player, not as good as a lot of his classmates)

2007: Kevin Durant[COLOR="Red"]*[/COLOR] (The 1st Pick goes to the "potential" guy Greg Oden over the best choice again)

2006: LaMarcus Aldridge[COLOR="Red"]*[/COLOR] (The 1st Pick goes to the "potential" guy Andrea Bargnani)

2005: Marvin Williams (Marvin Williams over Deron and CP3)

2004: Emeka Okafor (Magic almost picked him over Dwight)

2003: Darko Milicic (Haha)

2002: Jay Williams (If only Houston would of let Yao Ming slide to the Bulls with the 2nd Pick)


Funny how Portland could of had Aldridge and Durant if they would of played it safe the following draft also.

Not sure if this is a new thing that one of the top 2 picks won't be elite. Olowakandi, Joe Smith, Pervis Ellison etc. In so far as it being potential versus established Beasley had a better college career than Rose, he was beasting, Chicago took potential and won.
Turner wasn't a potential guy he was considered the safe pick (and after adapting to his NBA role. Picks 3 and 5 Favors and Cousins were the potential picks and they turned out to be better than the "proven" and "safe" Wesley Johnson.
This isn't a safe versus not safe thing. Adam Morrison was a "safe" pick whilst Rudy Gay slipped because he lacked heart and thus was risky.

The thing is don't reach for bigs (a kind of "safe" and "potential"" pick: safe because you can't teach height risky because they may have been mediocre in college) or you may be taking home a Kandi man, or Thabeet.

Do look at college production (Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair and Kenneth Faried being examples of excellent college players who irrationally fell because people had concerns about size or some other scouting nonsense).

Don't base your drafting on workouts. If someones stock falls because of workouts grab them. Kawahi Leonard was projected as a sixth pick fell, but was excellent value. Reggie Lewis slipped back in the day (and I'm basically stealing an idea given by Red Auerbach expounded in a book on him) because he played at some camp whilst ill and failed to impress. Conversely Kwame Brown and Yi Jianlian have looked excellent in workouts but weren't very good at basketball.

There are of course other factors to be taken into consideration but those are key ones that often get ignored.