Rant about misconceptions of raised salary cap

[kshutts1]

I've had enough, ISH. The raised cap means absolutely nothing for all future deals, and really only affects deals signed last off-season or earlier.

1) Max salaries are based on a percentage of salary cap, among other factors. So the top players will still take up the same percentage of space as before.

2) This summer, at least, FOs are going ga-ga over the increased cap, falsely thinking it gives them more security. In 2017/18, the salary cap should be around 108m. 2016/17 is 89m. Now it's about 68m.

The % increase, using 68 as a base (we're all somewhat used to these salaries)... 31% in 16/17 and 59% in 17/18.

People are defending these lucrative deals by saying "in a couple years it won't look bad!". Let's look at Tristan's contract...
15/16 = 20m (overpay)
16/17 = 20m/1.31 = 15.27m in today money (overpay)
17/18 = 2m/1.59 = 12.58m in today (very slight overpay)

Now, maybe that '18 contract looks fine, but consider that he is STILL OWED THAT MONEY UNTIL THEN! Bad, dumb, stupid money.

3) In the end the raise means nothing because teams will overpay like normal

[DMAVS41]

I've had enough, ISH. The raised cap means absolutely nothing for all future deals, and really only affects deals signed last off-season or earlier.

1) Max salaries are based on a percentage of salary cap, among other factors. So the top players will still take up the same percentage of space as before.

2) This summer, at least, FOs are going ga-ga over the increased cap, falsely thinking it gives them more security. In 2017/18, the salary cap should be around 108m. 2016/17 is 89m. Now it's about 68m.

The % increase, using 68 as a base (we're all somewhat used to these salaries)... 31% in 16/17 and 59% in 17/18.

People are defending these lucrative deals by saying "in a couple years it won't look bad!". Let's look at Tristan's contract...
15/16 = 20m (overpay)
16/17 = 20m/1.31 = 15.27m in today money (overpay)
17/18 = 2m/1.59 = 12.58m in today (very slight overpay)

Now, maybe that '18 contract looks fine, but consider that he is STILL OWED THAT MONEY UNTIL THEN! Bad, dumb, stupid money.

3) In the end the raise means nothing because teams will overpay like normal

Nah...there is great value to sign guys to 4 and 5 year deals now.

The Crowder contract is a great example. You'll never be able to get a player of his value at 7 million a year for 4 years starting next summer...which is what you'd have to do to match that.

IT? 3 years 6.5 million a year left on his deal. Not a chance in hell you can get that.

Danny Green? 4 years 11 million a year...not a chance in hell.

Ariza, Avery Bradley, Beverly, Middleton...etc. I could go on and on.

These guys will all be on amazing contracts going forward after this year.


I think a lot of teams are really missing out (the Mavs for example) as to the benefit of getting guys locked up on 4 year deals at really good numbers the last 2 years.

TT is a bad example because the Cavs don't care about overpaying him really. He's not worth what he's going to get paid in a vacuum, but for the Cavs he's absolutely worth it because all it does is cost them tax. It doesn't hurt their ability to get better.

And yes, that contract will look better and better each year going forward given the dramatic change coming to the cap.

Of course teams will overpay like normal. That is the point. If you are a team with 3 really good players on great contracts and have max cap space the next two years....you are at a huge advantage over other teams that don't have those contracts.

And the only way to have those contracts is to to lock them up last year and this year.

Take the Spurs Green/Leonard/LMA....if those guys were all free agents next season...the Spurs would have to pay considerably more.

Even at discounts...Green would take 15 million, Leonard would take 20 or more, LMA would take 23 or more.

That is a significant difference. Those guys are costing roughly 10 million less a year for the Spurs going forward than they would a team adding similar guys via free agency next summer.

It's about getting guys locked in now so you have more to spend later.

It's not about thinking teams will stop overpaying players.

[kshutts1]

Smart teams, that get lucky with pitches, are hitting up long-term deals that are good deals in the CURRENT market.

Not smart teams are inking long terms deals where the money only looks good in 2+ years.

[DMAVS41]

Smart teams, that get lucky with pitches, are hitting up long-term deals that are good deals in the CURRENT market.

Not smart teams are inking long terms deals where the money only looks good in 2+ years.

Yea, but those deals could still be good depending on the situation of a team now.

If a team can overpay this coming year for a couple deals in order to lock up good players for 3 more years after this one...it's really smart given the current market and the indications of what the market will be next summer

Take a guy like Crowder. 7 million a year isn't a bad deal in this cap, but it's not a great deal either. But you want a guy like Crowder next summer? It's costing you 11 million a year.

So if you can hoard 3 or 4 contracts on good value going into this new market...it's absolutely huge in my opinion.

This is what I wanted the Mavs to do. It's a big reason why I wanted us to go after IT, Bradley, Ariza...I love Ellis at his current price even if you have to give him 4 years. I think guys like Crowder and Aminu have a lot of long term value.

Lou Williams has good value. Ed Davis. Biyombo....etc.

Those type guys simply won't be able to be had at anywhere near those prices next summer.

So I think overpaying a little right now really is smart if the team can do it and has a long term plan.

[kshutts1]

Yea, but those deals could still be good depending on the situation of a team now.

If a team can overpay this coming year for a couple deals in order to lock up good players for 3 more years after this one...it's really smart given the current market and the indications of what the market will be next summer

Take a guy like Crowder. 7 million a year isn't a bad deal in this cap, but it's not a great deal either. But you want a guy like Crowder next summer? It's costing you 11 million a year.

So if you can hoard 3 or 4 contracts on good value going into this new market...it's absolutely huge in my opinion.

This is what I wanted the Mavs to do. It's a big reason why I wanted us to go after IT, Bradley, Ariza...I love Ellis at his current price even if you have to give him 4 years. I think guys like Crowder and Aminu have a lot of long term value.

Lou Williams has good value. Ed Davis. Biyombo....etc.

Those type guys simply won't be able to be had at anywhere near those prices next summer.

So I think overpaying a little right now really is smart if the team can do it and has a long term plan.

Next year, since the cap is going up by 31%, that deal would actually be about 9m, not 11m. It would be 11m in 2017.

And some signings are awesome... Lou Williams is the most recent one that comes to mind... while some are terrible.

But the terrible signings are the ones that are signing current players to market-2017 contracts, and brushing it off because it WILL be ok.

I agree that there are certain situations in which it's fine, and Cleveland is probably one of them. But more teams than just Cleveland are going bananas.