You Think Stats Are Inflated Now?

[FireDavidKahn]

If so then you can wipe off any record Wilt has.

Top 10 in PTS per 75 possessions (since 1974)

1-James Harden (36.2 in 2019 & 2020)
3-Michael Jordan (34.8 in 1987)
4-Kobe (34.2 in 2006)
5-Westbrook (33.6 in 2017)
6-MJ (32.7 in 1988)
7-Giannis (32.6 in 2020)
8-Luka (32.4 in 2020)
9-MJ (32.3 in 1993)
10-MJ (32.0 in 1990 & 1991)

1961-62 doesn't show up with per-75-possession results in Basketball Reference's Player Season Finder (lack of data).

The site does, however, estimate the Warriors' pace at 131.1 that season. Wilt was at 50.4 PTS/gm and around 28.5 PTS per 75 possessions based on that estimate

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[DMAVS41]

This is actually a pretty interesting conversation in my opinion.

The current average offensive rating in the league is 108.7

In 2008, it was 107.5

In 2002, it was 104.5

In 1996, it was 107.6

In 1990, it was 108.1

In 1984, it was 107.6

Someone correct those numbers if I'm wrong, on phone and it is hard to see.

No doubt you have to factor in pace and how many possessions there are in a game for the per game metrics.

However, we can't just stop there. Players aren't playing as many minutes anymore either.

And, the big thing that I think gets danced around quite a bit when it comes to this "defense no longer allowed" narrative...which, again, I'm not arguing nothing has changed...it is clearly easier to score now. But, the reasons why might have less to do with the defensive rules than some initially think.

Teams/players finally realized that a 3 point shot is worth 3 points...while also realizing that allowing Andrew Wiggins type players to shoot a lot of mid-range shots is really just stupid and is bad basketball.

Meaning, some of this increase and what we are seeing is flat out a result of teams/players just being smarter when it comes to offense.

Anyway, it is at least something to consider before we all negate what some of these guys are doing.

[SomeBlackDude]

Players aren't playing as many minutes anymore either.

very overlooked fact.

wilt averaged 45.6 mpg for his career. in his 50 ppg season, he average more minutes played per game than there are minutes in a regulation nba game

the beard right now is averaging 37 mpg and putting up 39 ppg. per 36, the beard is scoring better than wilt during his 50ppg season, he's just playing pretty much a quarter less than stilt did.

same with his teammate russ. the big o averaged 44-46 mpg during his triple double prime, russ averaged 34-36 during his.

there's no question we are witnessing the most inflated stats era ever right now. players are just playing far less than other high stats times in the league.

[Manny98]

Harden > MJ

[Kblaze8855]

Large reason wilts numbers look so weird was him simply never coming off the floor. He missed 6 minutes in the 62 season mentioned and that was a ejection for punching someone. Wilts numbers were his per 48s.

Far as inflated numbers it just depends on which time you compare it to. Relative to what the adults here would have come up on? That

[Xiao Yao You]

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]Large reason wilts numbers look so weird was him simply never coming off the floor. He missed 6 minutes in the 62 season mentioned and that was a ejection for punching someone. Wilts numbers were his per 48s.

Far as inflated numbers it just depends on which time you compare it to. Relative to what the adults here would have come up on? That

[Bronbron23]

Harden > MJ

Manny with the usual idotic troll response. Your consistent ill give u that

[DMAVS41]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.

[Xiao Yao You]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.

Before the 3 point line the only good shots were at the rim and the line and basically that is what they tried to get. Feed the post. Draw fouls

[DMAVS41]

Before the 3 point line the only good shots were at the rim and the line and basically that is what they tried to get. Feed the post. Draw fouls

Right...

I'm talking about after the 3 point line though.

If teams in the 80's and 90's had known the true power of the 3 point line...I'd imagine the average offensive rating jumps up in a noticeable way...with the defensive rules staying exactly as they were.

I don't have the numbers, but the current teams have to be taking somewhere around 5-10 times the amount of 3's per game than at certain times. And that is just smart given that a 3 has the EV it does...

That is my point, I don't think we should completely write-off some of these offenses because teams have just flat out gotten smarter in terms of shot selection and how offense is played.

[Bronbron23]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.

Yeah But this analytics movement relies alot on how the rules are now. Defenders dont gaurd perimeter players anymore because its so easy to foul due to how the game is called. You cant even fight through screens anymore which is insane to me. All teams do now is set screens. How are supposed to defend if you cant fight through them? All you can do now is switch which usually leads to a mismatch or they can do what teams usually do and double the the screener or the ball handler which leads to a open shot. Its really become to easy with these rules.

[Kblaze8855]

I think the bigger problem people have is how much easier the modern stars have it while still having straight one to one comparisons stats wise in media and by young fans who simply aren’t gonna understand.

The way Reggie Miller was guarded by the Knicks off the ball would be totally illegal now. You would have Starks or Harper fouled out in literally the first quarter. If you watch the clips explaining the rule changes just the way Starks leaned on Reggie off the ball would be illegal.

You know I’m not a Reggie guy....but I really can’t see him putting up 18-19 a game with all these hands off rules, being told not to take all those midrange shots he took, and all the extra shots available.

It makes it hard to evaluate people with anything but they eye test and there are people who take evaluation of players by what can be observed to be a slap in the face....

If we kept comparisons relative to peers it wouldn’t be such an issue. But we never do.

[DMAVS41]

Yeah But this analytics movement relies alot on how the rules are now. Defenders dont gaurd perimeter players anymore because its so easy to foul due to how the game is called. You cant even fight through screens anymore which is insane to me. All teams do now is set screens. How are supposed to defend if you cant fight through them? All you can do now is switch which usually leads to a mismatch or they can do what teams usually do and double the the screener or the ball handler which leads to a open shot. Its really become to easy with these rules.

Yes, I completely agree.

That is why I'm saying that it is clearly easier now, but that we also have to account for teams simply being smarter.

My argument is that I don't think it is accurate to just solely talk about "no defense"...

[DMAVS41]

I think the bigger problem people have is how much easier the modern stars have it while still having straight one to one comparisons stats wise in media and by young fans who simply aren’t gonna understand.

The way Reggie Miller was guarded by the Knicks off the ball would be totally illegal now. You would have Starks or Harper fouled out in literally the first quarter. If you watch the clips explaining the rule changes just the way Starks leaned on Reggie off the ball would be illegal.

You know I’m not a Reggie guy....but I really can’t see him putting up 18-19 a game with all these hands off rules, being told not to take all those midrange shots he took, and all the extra shots available.

It makes it hard to evaluate people with anything but they eye test and there are people who take evaluation of players by what can be observed to be a slap in the face....

If we kept comparisons relative to peers it wouldn’t be such an issue. But we never do.

No doubt.

You know I'm completely on board with everything above.

I also want to correct the other way a bit as well...what Harden did last night needs to be appreciated in a real way and not shrugged off the way it seemed to be on here....especially comparing it to anything post 04.

Someone tells me he probably can't do that in the 90's or early 00's...yep...I'll nod along...or at the very least agree it wouldn't be easy like that.

Someone tells me he couldn't do that in 2006? Nah, then we have a bit of an argument to have I think.

[Bronbron23]

Yes, I completely agree.

That is why I'm saying that it is clearly easier now, but that we also have to account for teams simply being smarter.

My argument is that I don't think it is accurate to just solely talk about "no defense"...

Yeah i agree with that. The rules definitely make it easier but not tothe degree that some people may say. What the top players like luka and harden are doing is still impressive. For most players the rules probably only account for 3-6 pts a game or so. For harden its probably a little more because of the way he manipulates the rules better than anyone.