Houston with Dwight vs Houston without Dwight

[UK2K]

Since I am at work and have more time than I know what to do with, I decided to give this another go, hopefully this time it won't delete itself.

I wanted to do an analytical look at Houston's performance with Dwight healthy and since Dwight has gone down. This post is not to point out that Houston is any worse or better without Dwight, it is simply an analytical view of Houston's games since Dwight has gone down.

Just watching Houston play, it seems like the offense is more fluid. Dwight has this obsession with posting on the block, and when he does, he has a tendency to dribble too long, either into a turnover, a travelling call, or just a bad forced shot.

Without Dwight, DMo/Smith/Jones have filled in nicely. Their shooting has spaced the floor, opening up the lane for more lay ups and more drive and kick opportunities. The offense seems to be playing at a more efficient level.

On the defensive end, Dwight will surely be missed, but the idea of this version of 'small ball' (positional wise, not size) seems to be working in the Rockets favor. The speed and athleticism has helped Houston stay active on the defensive end, leading to more steals and fast break opportunities. In addition to that, the length and athleticism has also allowed Houston to become a lock down team on the perimeter. While you would assume the defensive FG% would suffer as a result of a lack of a true low post rim defender, the 3pt FG% defense has been outstanding, resulting in long rebounds and, again, more fast break opportunities. Again, the athleticism (quickness, length, rotation speed, close out ability) has enabled Houston to continue to contest shots, even without Dwight on the floor.

Dwight did miss several weeks earlier in the season, but that was before Houston acquired Brewer and Smith, and before Jones became healthy. So, for this argument, I am using the averages of the players and team before and after 1/21. Dwight was injured on 1/23 against the Suns, but he only played 8 minutes in the game.

Without further adieu...

First, lets look at the biggest benefactors of Dwight's absence:

Pre Dwight injury:
DMo
10.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 51/31/64
Smith
9.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 42/22/44

Post Dwight injury:
DMo
16.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 56/43/64
Smith
12.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 45/41/50

This tells us that DMo and Smith are working wonders down low. While Smith may not be the most efficient scorer in the league, his passing and (ill perceived) threat of a jump shot has spaced the floor. It won't show up in the stat box as an assist, but many of the buckets for Smith and DMo down low have come off assists or hockey assists from one to the other. Both big men are skilled passers, and with Harden's vision, they are doing an excellent job of finding seams in the defense and getting (mostly DMo) high quality shots. DMo is shooting 56% from the floor and 43% from deep since Dwight went down, an increase of roughly 5% and 12%, respectively. Smith is shooting around the same % from the floor, but his long range shooting has improved remarkably. Granted, a lot of it can just be considered hot shooting, but there's no doubt that where he is receiving the ball on those long shots has a big impact on his efficiency from deep.

The above should be obvious, Dwight goes down, post players get more minutes, stats go up. But its that efficiency that really grabs my attention.

But maybe the not so obvious difference is how the team as a whole has been playing...

Rockets Season Averages
102.6 PPG (#7)
.439% FG (#23)
.351% 3PT FG (#13)
98.8 PPGA (#12)
.440% FGA (#8)
.317% 3PT FGA (#2)
21.2 APG (#18)
16.3 TOPG (#29)


Rockets Averages Post Dwight Injury
(Rankings are where they would currently fall in the NBA, given this stretch)

103.5 PPG (#6)
.453% FG (#14)
.361% 3PT FG (#9)
99.1 PPGA (#14)
.414% FGA (#1)
.306% 3PT FGA (#1)
23.4 APG (#5)
13.7 TOPG (#15)

Again, this isn't a 'are they or aren't they better', I just wanted to visually share in statistical form what I am seeing from watching Houston play without Dwight. Whether it is sustainable or not is a question for another day, but currently, this Rockets team is built for this run and gun, frantic defense, long bombing offense they have going right now.

The fact is, they are 6-1 without Dwight, with four wins over current playoff teams (Dal, Chi, Pho, Mil). The road doesn't get any easier for Houston, who's next five games are all against playoff teams, with back to back road games on the 10th and 11th vs Phoenix and LAC. It will be a good measuring stick as to whether the style of play we are using now will continue to work in the Rockets favor.

[navy]

Dat sample size.

[UK2K]

Dat sample size.

The fact is, they are 6-1 without Dwight during his most recent injury, with four wins over current playoff teams (Dal, Chi, Pho, Mil).

And, they were 8-4 without Dwight before the addition of Brewer/Smith and the return of Jones.

So, now, 14-5 without Dwight, 6-1 with their current roster.

The sample size is admittedly small, but again, Houston is 14-5 without him on the season.

I didn't want to do all the numbers by hand in games that Dwight hasn't played, and before the addition of the aforementioned players, the stats wouldn't be the same as after the addition of the aforementioned players. Therefore, the games from his earlier injury are irrelevant.

[Taller than CP3]

Hey man, have you ever wacked off at work?

[BigBoss]

Meltdown

[BigBoss]

Hey man, have you ever wacked off at work?

I like your style

[UK2K]

Hey man, have you ever wacked off at work?

Cameras everywhere. That's risky business, but maybe it'll heighten the mood.

[BigBoss]

Cameras everywhere. That's risky business, but maybe it'll heighten the mood.

Cameras = adreneline rush

[UK2K]

Cameras = adreneline rush

I mean, I am the one operating them....

[UK2K]

TTT

Wanna keep this up top so my ClutchCity homeboys can check it out.

Plus, this is the actual HowardvNonHoward thread.

[Sakkreth]

Big men in Houston are all good defensively (while Dwight is still the best one), so they don't hurt as much as other teams would losing such player. On offensive end they probably improve slightly when Dwight is not there, especially if Smith is in check to not shoot too much.

[StephHamann]

[bagelred]

You're fired

[Chadwin]

GOATiejunas is shooting 56% on post ups.

[TheMarkMadsen]

Lakers fans were spot on about Dwight