ESPN's top 10 SG's next season.

[BlkMambaGOAT]

ESPN is prodding Kobe to go at least 24/5/5 this season, but we all know what he's gonna average this season [COLOR="White"]28/6/5[/COLOR]

[hawksdogsbraves]

For my outsider homies

Assigning positions to players is a nebulous exercise at best, and maybe that as much as anything accounts for the paucity of top-flight shooting guards in today's NBA.

The best players at the position tend to spend plenty of time at adjacent spots, whether it's a combo guard like Monta Ellis who can run the point, or a longer player like Jimmy Butler who swings between the wing positions. Whatever the reason, just four of the top 50 in projected wins above replacement players (WARP) are coded as 2-guards in our forecast. There are 24 point guards who would have cracked the top 10 at shooting guard. Where have you gone, Reggie Miller?

Over the next week, we'll rank players by position according to forecast WARP, which is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context. (A complete explanation can be found at the bottom of this page; last year's shooting guard rankings can be found here.)

Here are the projected top 10 shooting guards for the 2014-15 NBA season, followed by the next five and an overview of why some notable SGs fell outside the top 10.

PG | SG | SF | PF | C

Harden
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 16.2 | Win%: 67 percent

Last season, Harden was just nudged out of the top spot by Dwyane Wade, but this time around, he laps a weak field of 2-guards. One issue that holds back traditional shooting guards is they don't have the ball in their hands that often, which tends to suppress their value in new metrics such as WARP. That's not a problem for Harden. According to SportVu data from NBA.com, Harden averaged 5.3 minutes per game in time of possession, ranking 15th in the league. Among the top 18, only LeBron James joined Harden as non-point guards.

Harden justifies all that possession time with a true shooting percentage annually above the .600 mark, buoyed by his league-average 3-point shooting and astronomical foul-drawing rate. Harden's on-ball defensive metrics aren't as bad as his reputation suggests, but his team defensive markers are so bad that, statistically, the perception about Harden's indifference on that end seems well-deserved. Still, as long as he keeps churning out 14 to 15 WARP per season, he'll remain a top-10 player.



Wade
2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.1 | Win%: 62 percent

Speaking of time of possession, Wade will be getting a lot more of it this season with James back in Cleveland. One of the more intriguing subplots of "The Return" is that now we'll see just how much game Wade and Chris Bosh have left. Last season, at age 32, Wade put up his lowest WARP and winning percentage since his rookie season. Also near career-lows were Wade's usage rate and assist rate. Now, as he returns to the role of Miami's offensive creator, can Wade stay somewhat efficient if he soars back to a usage rate above 30 percent and an assist rate more than 9 percent? If he can, can his body hold up to the challenge?


Ellis
3. Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.4 | Win%: 56 percent

Here's the genius of Rick Carlisle. Last season, Carlisle installed Ellis as a primary component in a veteran-laden, high-powered offensive attack. He allowed Ellis to use just as many possessions as he did in Milwaukee, but Dallas' scheme kept Ellis on the attack. His shoddy 3-point shooting was minimized, and his foul-drawing escalated. It wasn't Ellis at his most efficient, but it was close. More important, Ellis did all of this in service of the team. His previous career-best in offensive RPM was plus-1.2. Last season, he was at plus-3.2. It was a different story on the defensive end, but Carlisle focuses on the strengths of his players, so we'll do the same.


Butler
4. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.3 | Win%: 56 percent

Butler will probably never be a dynamic offensive player, but he does so many things well that he's become one of the best two-way performers at his position in the league. Last season, Butler extended his game out to the 3-point line more often, although his accuracy there didn't justify the volume of attempts. Still, it was a smart adjustment, one that could especially pay dividends this season if Derrick Rose can stay healthy and contract the defense. Butler stayed aggressive putting the ball on the floor, and is Chicago's best foul-drawing threat. He's also the best perimeter defender on one of the league's top defenses, with the versatility to check any of the perimeter positions. Entering his fourth season, our system sees a breakout campaign coming for Butler.


Waiters
5. Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 55 percent

Waiters is a combined minus-0.4 WARP during his two NBA seasons, so the system might be a little optimistic with this forecast. What the metrics might be missing is the intrinsic value of Waiters' ability to create offense. Despite a well-below-average true shooting percentage, Waiters' offensive RPM has been positive in both his seasons and reached plus-1.8 last year. If the optimism of his forecast proves to be warranted, it's a scary proposition for the rest of the NBA. Cleveland point guard Kyrie Irving clocked in at No. 5 in our rankings yesterday. It's probably not spoiling anything to tell you that James and Kevin Love will rate very high at their respective positions as well. If Waiters really develops into a top-five shooting guard, that will be something to see.


Evans
6. Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.3 | Win%: 54 percent

Evans' winning percentage last season (.529) was just one point better that the season before, but he went about it in a very different manner. His assist rate jumped by more than 3 percent. As a scorer, his volume surged even as his shooting percentages tumbled. Yet -- and this is why RPM is so valuable -- we can see that this shifting profile served the Pelicans well, as his offensive RPM jumped to plus-1.3. His defense was horrific, however, and Evans' inability to translate his raw physical material into positive impactful defense remains the most disappointing aspect of his career.


Oladipo
7. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.3 | Win%: 53 percent

The most exciting development of another lost season for Orlando was that Oladipo was on the court for nearly 2,500 minutes. His offensive production wavered in terms of consistency, but he flashed a full range of skills. He created offense (24.6 percent usage), set up teammates (6 percent assist rate) and established himself as a potential lockdown defender. The growing pains were there in Oladipo's .514 true shooting percentage and high turnover rate, but it was a great starting point.


Thompson
8. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.2 | Win%: 52 percent

There is a giant disconnect between Thompson's perceived value and his measurable value as judged by advanced metrics. Last season was his best, yet his 3.5 WARP ranked just 108th in the NBA. However, hidden behind those numbers was a leap forward in offensive RPM, from minus-0.2 to plus-3.0. That suggests that last season more than ever, Thompson improved his ability to leverage his threat as a shooter in a way to offset his lack of measurable production. Of course, last season, his measurables were better than ever, too, as he posted career highs in true shooting percentage and usage rate, all while posting solid on-ball defensive metrics. It'll be interesting to see what Steve Kerr can do with him.


Ginobili
9. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.0 | Win%: 60 percent

Even at 36, the only thing holding back Ginobili is Gregg Popovich's masterwork at keeping his stars' playing time down during the regular season. Note that Ginobili's forecasted winning percentage is the third-best mark on the list. His performance has never faltered.


Stephenson
10. Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 5.6 | Win%: 51 percent

Leaving aside Stephenson's goofy on-court antics, 2013-14 was a breakout season for a player who didn't merit so much as a mention in the rankings of his position a year ago. Stephenson's usage rate jumped by more than 4 percent, yet his efficiency soared: His true shooting percentage increased from .529 to .564. His increased assist rate and elite rebound percentages made him a consistent triple-double threat. However, there are rough edges in his game even beyond the enigmatic behavior, but if Steve Clifford can harness what Stephenson does best, Charlotte's summer investment in him should pay off.

Next five: Kobe Bryant, Bradley Beal, Danny Green, Wesley Matthews, J.R. Smith

Beal's winning percentage fell from his rookie season, and he's been negative in RPM on both ends of the floor in both of his NBA seasons. Yet his late-season performance, including the playoffs, suggest he'll move well up this leaderboard by next summer. As for Bryant, his playing-time forecast is predictably suppressed, but even if it weren't, his projected winning percentage would just barely get him into the top 10.

Also notable: DeMar DeRozan, Joe Johnson

DeRozan is probably underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He had a fine 2013-14 season with 5.4 WARP, but he had been well under replacement level in each of his four campaigns. One more solid season, and DeRozan will be a top-10 fixture.

[Legends66NBA7]

For my outsider homies

Thanks, but it was already posted:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/sho...4&postcount=27

[riseagainst]

did OP make this thread just so he could make a comment about Kobe not being on it?

[DaOldLion]

So advanced stats show that 2 all star shooting guards from last year weren't even top 10 at their own position??

[roffie]

waiters is on the list but not derozen lol classic espn

[hawksdogsbraves]

Thanks, but it was already posted:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/sho...4&postcount=27

Oh my gosh, I'm so sorry

[bizil]

Assuming Kobe is healthy and Wade can rock, it's no secret those two along with Harden are the top three SG's in the world. From there, u got Joe Johnson, Klay Thompson, Stephenson, Beal, Ellis, Derozan, and Manu. I don't care what metric ESPN puts out there. The position is the weakest it has been in a long ass time. Especially coming off the Golden Era of SG's which Kobe, Wade, Johnson, and Manu were a part of along with AI, T-Mac, Vince, and Ray Allen. Kobe, Wade, Manu, AI, Vince, and Ray are locks for the HOF. I think T-Mac will get in eventually becasue he accomplished a lot in his prime years and his peak was top 5 caliber EVER at SG.

[HOoopCityJones]

ESPN turned into the WWE of sports reporting.

Complete with heels and all.

[Le Shaqtus]

Oladipo better than Manu?

Oladipo is not top 10, what the f*ck is ESPN smoking.

[3ball]

Oladipo better than Manu?

Oladipo is not top 10, what the f*ck is ESPN smoking.

The fact that a newbie rook who has a NEGATIVE offensive win share and a 94 Ortg can even make a top-10 SG list shows how unbelievably shallow the skills are a this position right now.

NEGATIVE offensive win share... do you know what that means?... and a 94 Ortg.

Waiters and Evans are up there too... lol

[chips93]

Entirely metric based: . ESPN, where paid articles can be generated by a stat ranking

Fixed

[coolhandsteve]

1. Harden
2. Wade
3. Ellis
4. Butler
5. Waiters
6. Evans
7. Oladipo
8. Thompson
9. Ginobili
10. Stephenson

K.

[Nastradamus]

afflalo is better than half of those guys

and joe johnson might be overpaid, still doesnt suck and is clutch as ****

Afflalo is terrible on every defensive metric despite his reputation and doesn't create offense. He's a poor defending 3 point spot up shooter.

[BrownEye007]

waiters is on the list but not derozen lol classic espn

Oladipo was playing pg for the most part as far as I was aware. Not to mention Waiters is the better player. If one person got replaced from that list it would have to be Oladipo.