ESPN INSIDER Request D'Angelo Russell

[SourGrapes]

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story...-superstar-nba

Thanks in advance guys

[Vancouver-Grizz]

How well is D'Angelo Russell playing?

Chad Ford: At this point it looks as if Karl-Anthony Towns is a lock to be NBA Rookie of the Year and has all the makings of a superstar. Kristaps Porzingis also looks like a future star in the making.

However, a third player in the draft class of 2015 is really starting to come on. Within the last 48 hours before the draft, the Los Angeles Lakers pulled the plug on drafting Jahlil Okafor to take D'Angelo Russell.

At the time, along with some others, I felt it was a good move -- but a rough first half of his rookie season gave us pause. Russell's shot wasn't falling, he looked as if he lacked the elite athleticism to get by guys off the dribble and his confidence in his game seemed immature.

Russell has been on fire since the All-Star break, averaging 19.9 points and 4.7 assists and shooting a scintillating 54 percent from 3-point range. On Tuesday, he erupted for 39 points and eight 3-pointers against the Nets.

Kevin, do you think this is just a hot streak, or is this more in line with what you were expecting from Russell?

Kevin Pelton: Nearly 20 points and five assists per game would be high expectations. What I'd say is this big stretch has brought Russell's season averages right in line with what I projected based on his performance at Ohio State.

Russell Reaching Expectations
PERFORMANCE WIN% USG TS% REB% AST%
Projected .478 .205 .505 7.5 6.0
Actual .476 .238 .524 7.0 5.6
In fact, Russell has been slightly better as a scorer than I projected, using more of the Lakers' plays and shooting a higher percentage inside the arc than his college stats suggested. (That's offset in terms of his overall win percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player metric, by the Lakers' poor defensive numbers.)

Remember, that projection had Russell atop my stats-only board and second behind Towns when factoring in the scouting consensus. So I'd say he's right on track in terms of what the Lakers were hoping to see.


What's working, and what's not

Ford: Well, most scouts and GMs had him pegged similarly. There was a pretty strong consensus on draft night that he was the second-best prospect.

Personally, I had Porzingis a little higher and that was primarily because of some concerns about Russell's weaknesses: lack of elite athletic ability, good but not great shooting from beyond the arc and pedestrian defense.

Early in the season, all of those concerns seemed to be magnified. I think they are all still legitimate issues. But Russell's scoring ability, passing acumen and red-hot shooting streak from beyond the arc really seem to minimize those concerns.

What do the numbers say are Russell's biggest strengths and weaknesses? And more important, are his strengths eclipsing those weaknesses?

Pelton: My biggest concern about Russell offensively was his inability to get to the foul line, which probably relates to the lack of elite athletic ability. That has carried over. He's attempting only 2.7 free throws per 36 minutes, which isn't good for a player who takes so many shots (15.1 field goal attempts per 36).

Yet Russell has been good enough as a 3-point shooter -- and, perhaps more accurately, prolific enough -- that he has scored with adequate efficiency. And when Russell makes his 3s, as he has since the All-Star break, he's a legitimately outstanding scorer.

Russell's biggest strength remains the ability to create shots. A 23.6 percent usage rate is on the high side for a rookie point guard. He's also a good defensive rebounder for a point guard.

Returning to weaknesses, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) backs up the concerns about Russell's defense. His minus-2.4 defensive RPM ranks him in the bottom quartile among point guards.

Does that combination make him a plus player right now? Probably not. But projecting forward, there's little question in my mind Russell will get there given his age and the tendency for young point guards to struggle in the NBA.

How does Russell compare?

Pelton: How would you compare him to other one-and-done PG prospects?

Ford: I don't think anyone's even close this season. I actually personally preferred Emmanuel Mudiay to Russell on draft night, but clearly Russell is having the better rookie year.

I'm still curious how Mudiay adapts next season. It was a pretty big jump for him from China to the NBA. But Russell's superior scoring and shooting ability give him a clear edge right now.

After that, you have to go back to the 2011 draft when Kyrie Irving went No. 1 to find a one-and-done PG with Russell's potential. I think I prefer Irving as a player, but Russell has the ability to be a similar shooter and a more creative passer.

Looking forward to this year's draft doesn't help much either. The only legit one-and-done point guard prospect is Kentucky's Jamal Murray. I love Murray. He's a great, fearless scorer with a crazy high basketball IQ.

But Russell is a better athlete and a much more creative passer. Murray is stronger and a better shooter. If they were both in the draft today, I'd lean Russell over Murray.

What do you see, Kevin?

Pelton: Here's how Russell's performance to date compares to other one-and-done point guards who were drafted in the top 10:

How Does Russell Compare?
PLAYER YEAR WIN% USG TS% REB% AST%
Kyrie Irving 2012 .615 .289 .566 7.1 8.0
Brandon Jennings 2010 .518 .262 .475 6.2 8.0
John Wall 2011 .482 .240 .494 7.1 9.8
D'Angelo Russell 2016 .476 .238 .524 7.0 5.6
Derrick Rose 2009 .465 .227 .516 6.0 7.7
Mike Conley 2008 .431 .189 .502 5.7 7.2
Brandon Knight 2012 .422 .219 .511 6.1 5.5
Emmanuel Mudiay 2016 .333 .250 .410 6.0 8.4
He's definitely lagging as a playmaker but only Irving has been better than Russell as a scorer at the same age, an encouraging sign given the talent elsewhere on this list.

The early concern about Russell would probably have been better applied to Mudiay. Though there are good signs in terms of his playmaking ability and defense, Mudiay will have to improve dramatically as a scorer to be an effective NBA point guard.

As for Murray, there's no doubting his ability, but I don't think he's a point guard. Playing alongside Tyler Ulis and Isaiah Briscoe, he's averaging only 2.4 assists per game and has really excelled at using off-ball screens to set up outside shots.

I see him as a shooting guard or maybe a complement to a shooting guard who's more effective with the ball in his hands. And given that there are questions about Murray's defense, too, I wouldn't hesitate to take Russell first if they were in the same draft.

Will Russell be a superstar?

Ford: So I guess the question on every Lakers fan's mind is whether Russell is a superstar? Is he the sort of player the Lakers can build their team around?

Looking at where he lands on your list of one-and-done point guards helps a little. He's behind both Irving and John Wall -- both of whom are All-Stars -- and ahead of Derrick Rose (who was a superstar before getting hurt) and Mike Conley. I think all the current evidence points to him being a potential All-Star but not necessarily a superstar. What do you think?

Pelton: Yeah, that's about where I'd land.

My SCHOENE projection system gives a similar assessment. Of the 10 players most similar to Russell at the same age, six became All-Stars: Irving, Gilbert Arenas, Jrue Holiday, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook and -- most intriguingly to Lakers fans -- Kobe Bryant.

A couple of more young players similar to Russell, Bradley Beal and Brandon Knight, could yet become All-Stars. So I'd give him a pretty good chance of reaching that level.

Superstardom is going to require Russell to max out his development the way Bryant and Westbrook did.

[SwishSquared]

Can anyone confirm that Ford actually had Porzingis as the #2 prospect but also him preferring Mudiay over Russell? I think that's a pretty blatant lie. I actually thought his board went Town/Okafor/Russell/Prozingis and Winslow/Mudiay in some order afterwards.

[AirTupac]

Thanks, repped

[Showtime2001]

Lakers need to get rid of Byron Scott if they can somehow get Luke Walton then Russell will have more freedom.

I was a doubter at first but he's been playing much better hopefully he keeps it up.

[SwishSquared]

Lakers need to get rid of Byron Scott if they can somehow get Luke Walton then Russell will have more freedom.

I was a doubter at first but he's been playing much better hopefully he keeps it up.

Hire Thibs this summer. Walton did a good job of not messing stuff up but he deviated from Kerr's lineups some and ultimately made some suboptimal subs. It was his first at head coaching though and there is a learning curve, so he should get better. I'd just rather pay $2-3M more/year and get Thibs. You know what to expect and it's unlikely that Walton will be better ultimately than him.

[Nick Young]

3'Alphalo "The Young Gawd" Russell

[bigkingsfan]

Why does this kid look like a deer in headlights? He hasn't drived to the hoop even ONCE. All he does is move Sllllllllllllllllllllooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww and throw ill adviced passes anyone here could toss.

His shooting is just meh and can't create for himself with that speed.


Worst of all, he looks more interested in Hollywood and Kardashians. This guy has BUST written all over him, I CAN GUARANTEE IT NOW. Zero pasion for the game. ZERO.

F Lakers FO for an epic draft failure.

[Levity]

lulz

[AirBonner]

Why does this kid look like a deer in headlights? He hasn't drived to the hoop even ONCE. All he does is move Sllllllllllllllllllllooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww and throw ill adviced passes anyone here could toss.

His shooting is just meh and can't create for himself with that speed.


Worst of all, he looks more interested in Hollywood and Kardashians. This guy has BUST written all over him, I CAN GUARANTEE IT NOW. Zero pasion for the game. ZERO.

F Lakers FO for an epic draft failure.

How far has 3'Alphalo come? bolded is still relevant