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Old 07-29-2018, 07:42 PM   #1
3ball
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Default 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups





https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/warriors-thunder-is-the-strongest-conference-finals-matchup-in-decades/


Toughest Conference Finals:

JORDAN:. 3rd.... 9th.. 10th.. 13th.. 26th.. 27th.. 43rd
LEBRON:. 8th.. 19th.. 35th.. 38th.. 42nd.. 54th


Elo Ratings of Opponents:

JORDAN:. 1767.. 1696.. 1686.. 1680.. 1671.. 1642.. 1558
LEBRON:. 1679.. 1645.. 1665.. 1638.. 1614.. 1592.. 1554

So far, 538 has proven that:

1) MJ won more rings above what the pre-series Finals odds predicted (so accounting for competition) than anyone since the ABA merger
2) MJ won the 91 & 93' Finals with the weakest casts ever to win, aside from hakeem in 94 and Dirk in 11'
3) Lebron's team-hopping resulted in the most talented teams in the last 40 years, and they underachieved drastically, mainly on offense
4) MJ faced FAR tougher conference finals competition, as the stats show above

So he beat the Finals odds by the most, won with the weakest casts, and faced tougher conference finals comp... While Lebron assembled the most talented teams in history and underachieved drastically with them, mainly on offense (lebron-ball)

.

Last edited by 3ball : 07-29-2018 at 10:32 PM.
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Old 07-29-2018, 07:43 PM   #2
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

What about toughest Finals series?
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Old 07-29-2018, 07:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by Docs Orders

What about toughest Finals series?


Again, 538 did a study on the Finals, and they proved that mj won the most rings above what the pre-series odds predicted

Be aware that even if a team is favored 2-to-1 in six Finals, their expected record is 4-2... So 6-0 vastly exceeds the expectation, which is why 538 determined that mj beat the odds by the most, accounting for competition (pre-series odds)





https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rt-his-legacy/
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Old 07-29-2018, 07:57 PM   #4
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

this list ranks best matchups between two teams, not opponent. You realize half of the average rating comes from the strength of your own team.
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Old 07-29-2018, 08:26 PM   #5
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by NBAGOAT

this list ranks best matchups between two teams, not opponent. You realize half of the average rating comes from the strength of your own team.

Elo Ratings of Opponents:


JORDAN:. 1767.. 1696.. 1686.. 1680.. 1671.. 1642.. 1558
LEBRON:. 1679.. 1645.. 1665.. 1638.. 1614.. 1592.. 1554
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Old 07-29-2018, 08:48 PM   #6
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ball
Elo Ratings of Opponents:


JORDAN:. 1767.. 1696.. 1686.. 1680.. 1671.. 1642.. 1558
LEBRON:. 1679.. 1645.. 1665.. 1638.. 1614.. 1592.. 1554

Good, Jordanís is better. Practice some common sense in your analysis next time.
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Old 07-29-2018, 09:00 PM   #7
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by NBAGOAT

Good, Jordan’s is better.

Exactly, MJ faced much better conference finals comp

and he beat the pre-series Finals odds by the most too (so accounting for Finals comp):

https://serving.photos.photobox.com/...ee22c6da7e.jpg
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rt-his-legacy/


So to summarize, 538 proved that MJ beat the pre-series Finals odds by the most, faced FAR tougher conference finals comp, and won with the weakest casts ever to win in 91 & 93' (except for hakeem 94' and Dirk 11')..

Otoh, 538 proved that lebron's team-hopping resulted in the most talented teams ever, but they underachieved drastically, mainly on offense (lebron-ball)

Those are the statistical facts bruh, including all the backup
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:22 PM   #8
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

They put the Rockets vs Warriors on 2015.

Lost my attention there.
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:38 PM   #9
3ball
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigKAT

They put the Rockets vs Warriors on 2015.

Lost my attention there.

Two good teams going at it - don't see what's wrong with it

Btw, be aware that even if a team is a 2-to-1 favorite in 6 Finals, their expected Finals record will be 4-2..

So 6-0 drastically beats the expectation, which is why 538 concluded that MJ won the most rings above what the pre-series Finals odds predicted (so accounting for competition):

https://serving.photos.photobox.com/...ee22c6da7e.jpg
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rt-his-legacy/


So again, 538 has proven that MJ beat the pre-series Finals odds by the most, faced FAR tougher conference finals (outlined itt), and won with the weakest casts ever to win in 91 & 93' (except for hakeem 94' and Dirk 11')..

they also proved that lebron's team-hopping resulted in the most talented teams ever, but they underachieved drastically, mainly on offense (lebron-ball)
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Old 07-30-2018, 05:42 AM   #10
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by Docs Orders
What about toughest Finals series?

I got you bro, talk about weak eras, those 90's teams

1) 16-17 Warriors 1850
2) 14-15 Warriors 1802
3) 15-16 Warriors 1790
4) 17-18 Warriors 1783
5) 97-98 Jazz 1762
6) 96-87 Jazz 1751
7) 11-12 Thunder 1737
8) 13-14 Spurs 1730
9) 10-11 Mavs 1717
10) 12-13 Spurs 1711
11) 06-07 Spurs 1705
12) 91-92 Suns 1702
13) 90-91 Lakers 1697
14) 96-97 Sonics 1695
15) 92-93 Suns 1634
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Old 07-30-2018, 06:03 AM   #11
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by NBAGOAT
this list ranks best matchups between two teams, not opponent. You realize half of the average rating comes from the strength of your own team.
OP is retarded.
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Old 07-30-2018, 10:24 AM   #12
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

You keep throwing around the word "proved". Fivethirtyeight has not proven anything. They are offering an opinion based on an advanced statistical metric. How well that metric reflects reality is open to debate.

If you go to basketball-reference.com and try to use their advanced statistics to determine the GOAT, you're going to be confused. LeBron is the career leader in Box Plus/Minus and Value Over Replacement Player. Jordan is the leader in Player Efficiency Rating. Kareem leads in Win Shares. Chris Paul leads in Win Shares/48 minutes. Which one of those statistics is the best indicator for who the GOAT is? Are any of them even close?

It is fivethirtyeights belief that point differential is the best way to determine just how good a team is. In the end, that is only their opinion, and any conclusion based on that statistic is also just an opinion.

Last edited by baudkarma : 07-30-2018 at 10:29 AM.
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Old 07-30-2018, 12:56 PM   #13
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

What the **** is 538?
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Old 07-30-2018, 11:58 PM   #14
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigShotBob
What the **** is 538?

fivethirtyeight.com

A website associated with ESPN that does analysis on sports and politics and culture.

Also, you can say "heck" on this website. No need to censor yourself with ****.

Last edited by baudkarma : 07-31-2018 at 12:08 AM.
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Old 07-31-2018, 01:15 AM   #15
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Default Re: 538 lists the toughest conference finals matchups

Quote:
Originally Posted by baudkarma
fivethirtyeight.com

A website associated with ESPN that does analysis on sports and politics and culture.

Also, you can say "heck" on this website. No need to censor yourself with ****.

He was probably trying to say f.uck, sissy boy.
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