How many teams are legitimate contenders each year?

[Marchesk]

By "legitimate", I mean they are good enough to win the championship. I don't mean they could win a playoff series or two, and even beat a good team in doing so.

So for example, the Hawks last season were not legitimate title contenders, because as we saw, they couldn't have won the championship (getting easily swept with home court advantage). But the Cavs were, even though they lost in the finals.

So maybe last season the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Spurs were legit. That leaves the Clippers, Bulls and Grizzlies as question marks. The Thunder were disqualified by injuries.

So that's 4 to maybe 7 teams last season. If this was during a dynastic era, then the number might be reduced to 3 or 4, at best. So each year you might be looking at around 6 or less teams who could actually win the entire thing.

[SouBeachTalents]

On average, there are probably 5-6 teams every year that have a legitimate shot at a championship. How many would you say there were in past eras like the '60's & '80's? 2-3, 4 tops?

[Marchesk]

On average, there are probably 5-6 teams every year that have a legitimate shot at a championship. How many would you say there were in past eras like the '60's & '80's? 2-3, 4 tops?

80s?

Celtics, 76ers, Lakers obviously. Bucks and Rockets maybe. Then later Pistons, Lakers, Celtics, with Bulls and Suns as maybes. Portland also.

During the Bulls championships, how many were there? The 72 win season there was what, Orlando, Seattle and Utah with any chance? There was probably only about three teams who had any chance of beating the Bulls in a series in any one of those seasons.

What about during the Lakers three-peat? Spurs and Kings. Who else?

[All Net]

Warriors
Cavs
Thunder
Spurs
Rockets

Clippers could be part of this but I don't believe they will ever get over the hump

[Marchesk]

Warriors
Cavs
Thunder
Spurs
Rockets

Clippers could be part of this but I don't believe they will ever get over the hump

Sounds about right for this year.

Cue rant about contraction and shortening the regular season.

[KG215]

I think 5 legit contenders is about as high as you can reasonably go most years. I would say this year there are three teams it absolutely would not surprise me at all if they won the championship (Warriors, Spurs, Cavs) and three other teams who I'm not sure I'd quite put on that level but are really, really close (Thunder, Clippers, Rockets). So you could make an argument that there's 5-6 this year, but I'd say more like 3 or 4 -- I'm waiting to see how the Kanter experiment goes and how healthy they stay before I definitively put OKC in the Warriors, Spurs, and Cavs group.

[Foster5k]

Not many. It's usually the same old teams.

-Whatever team LeBron has colluded with in the East
-Spurs
-Warriors
-OKC

[ArbitraryWater]

2016:

CLE
GSW
SAS
OKC
LAC
HOU

for comparison...

2010:

Cavaliers
Celtics
Lakers

2009:

Cavs
Celtics
Magic
Lakers

2008:

Lakers
Celtics

[All Net]

Sounds about right for this year.

Cue rant about contraction and shortening the regular season.

Still think the main ones are

Warriors
Cavs
Thunder
Spurs

Can't see anybody else really

[CurryOverLebron]

Warriors
Thunder
Cavaliers

[Foster5k]

People always talk about the parity in the NBA. The NFL has pretty much the same parity. The Patriots are currently the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Well, they were favorites last year and the year before that. The NBA has the bottom feeders and the NFL does as well.

[RidonKs]

usually between one and three to start the year

then as teams begin to tangle and you go through the ups and downs of the year and teams like the grizzlies or the bulls take swipes at your confidence and you begin to think there are about half a dozen teams in contention

still there remain typically only a few

this year i think is different though. the main three contenders are definitely the spurs, cavs, warriors... but the thunder are very close. only hesitation is that shooting guard position and we're going to find out how roberson and waiters share the load, not to mention who they find themselves playing beside.

the clippers and rockets and bulls are unproven and that matters. the first title run is always the hardest.

after those teams, the next tier is fat. bucks, hawks, pelicans, wizards, jazz, raptors.... and the list goes on.



look back at the championship odds opening every year... top three listed

2006 - spurs, heat, pistons, suns
2007 - mavs, suns, spurs
2008 - mavs, suns, spurs
2009 - lakers, celtics, cavs
2010 - lakers, celtics, cavs
2011 - heat, lakers, magic, bulls
2012 - heat, lakers, bulls, thunder
2013 - heat, lakers, thunder
2014 - heat, spurs, thunder
2015 - cavs, spurs, thunder

so we have a lot of steady names with three big surprises...

- lakers celtics out of nowhere in 2008 but they made big trades
- mavs out of nowhere in 2011
- warriors out of nowhere in 2015

i dunno what to conclude from the above but just thought i was interesting



the field does seem more crowded this season... barring injuries it'll be the most competitive nba season in years. then again i said that about last year too...

[SouBeachTalents]

People always talk about the parity in the NBA. The NFL has pretty much the same parity. The Patriots are currently the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Well, they were favorites last year and the year before that. The NBA has the bottom feeders and the NFL does as well.

Disagree completely. The one game elimination format makes it infinitely easier for upsets to happen and lower seeded teams to advance in the playoffs, even win the Super Bowl. The Giants, Packers, and Ravens all won the Super Bowl with 9-10 wins, with the Giants doing so twice. Iirc no one below the 3 seed has won an NBA title in 20 years. And honestly, how many legitimate NBA upsets have there been in the last 20 seasons? 5, maybe 7 tops.

[Legends66NBA7]

Cavaliers, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, and Thunder.

Assuming everyone is healthy, if not then it probably comes down the Spurs and Warriors for me. I can't see team in the East win if they aren't healthy.

[Sarcastic]

Baseball is the sport with most parity, and its also the only sport that doesn't have a salary cap.