Just a little more than a year ago oil was still 110 a barrell

[KevinNYC]

yeah? isis presents the strongest competitor to powerful saudi interests in a really long time. the only issue probably treated with more seriousness than isis is domestic stability, meaning maintaining power for the family dictatorship.

what didn't spread and spread and spread?

The shale revolution started before last year, but it hadn't spread enough to be a threat until last year.

Iran is a much, much bigger concern for Saudi Arabia than ISIS

[RidonKs]

The shale revolution started before last year, but it hadn't spread enough to be a threat until last year.

Iran is a much, much bigger concern for Saudi Arabia than ISIS

disagree entirely. they have a common enemy, so for the time being, they'll work together. the 'first and foremost' prioritization of isis above all other thorny foreign policies is as much a tactic as it is an endgame. iran may be competition, but iran is an internationally recognized state and they aren't going anywhere. isis came out of nowhere and can still be put down, or so the saudi state clearly believes, given its role in the conflict. additionally they are at odds ideologically meaning there isn't much demographic overlap for followers.

you might be right. i know more about geopolitics than price wars over energy. nevertheless, i think you're overestimating the threat of shale to the saudi state, which is not exactly on the brink of bankruptcy.

[sundizz]

Interestingly, oil prices seem to have a correlation with a recession. Summarily, oil price are higher during a recession. I'd buy into oil at whatever lowest I could and simply wait it out for a recession. It'll eventually happen and spike oil to over 80. Doubt electric cars etc are going to take over in the next 10 years (not before another mini recession at least).

[KevinNYC]

Interestingly, oil prices seem to have a correlation with a recession. Summarily, oil price are higher during a recession. I'd buy into oil at whatever lowest I could and simply wait it out for a recession. It'll eventually happen and spike oil to over 80. Doubt electric cars etc are going to take over in the next 10 years (not before another mini recession at least).

What are you buying? Are you buying actual oil? Because then you have to find a place to warehouse it and store it and that takes money.

There were hedge funds that did this. They would buy a supertanker of oil and not deliver the oil, just pay the tanker for months and months of use.

It only pays off if you have money you can tie up for periods of time, the cash flow to keep up expenses and if the difference in price makes up for all of the above and would be higher than just say, buying an sp500 index fund.

Also oil prices in the recession following the financial crisis went way down and the slowing of China's economy is bringing prices down today. So it's not an exact correlation.

[RidonKs]

What are you buying? Are you buying actual oil? Because then you have to find a place to warehouse it and store it and that takes money.

There were hedge funds that did this. They would buy a supertanker of oil and not deliver the oil, just pay the tanker for months and months of use.

It only pays off if you have money you can tie up for periods of time, the cash flow to keep up expenses and if the difference in price makes up for all of the above and would be higher than just say, buying an sp500 index fund.

Also oil prices in the recession following the financial crisis went way down and the slowing of China's economy is bringing prices down today. So it's not an exact correlation.

why do you say were?

[KevinNYC]

Ruble hit 71 to a dollar.

Oil went below $40

China stock prices just dropped 8% and then 7% again which means probably less demand for oil in China.


From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest

Mr. Ortiz estimated that all major oil exporting countries had lost a total of $1 trillion in oil sales because of the price decline over the last year.

“The apparent weakness in the Chinese economy is radiating out into the world,” said Daniel Yergin, author of two seminal books on the history of the oil industry, “The Prize” and “The Quest.”

“An awful lot of producers who enjoyed good times were more dependent on Chinese economic growth than they recognized,” Mr. Yergin said. “This is an oil shock.”

Although the price drop has most directly hurt oil exporters, it also may signal a new period of global economic fragility that could hurt all countries — an anxiety that already has been evident in the gyrating stock markets.

[KevinNYC]

Venezuela has an election coming up in December. I think it will get ugly there very soon.

9 Opposition Candidates Barred From Venezuela’s December Ballot

[~primetime~]

Oil up 16% over the last two days.

Now over $45 a barrel

[KevinNYC]

Oil is $44 a barrel and according to OPEC it won't be that low much longer. OPEC is claiming victory over shale.

The US shale boom is grinding to a halt.
In its latest monthly oil-market report, published Monday, the 12-member oil cartel OPEC said US oil producers were finally beginning to feel the squeeze of lower oil prices.

OPEC writes: "In North America, there are signs that US production has started to respond to reduced investment and activity. Indeed, all eyes are on how quickly US production falls."

OPEC slashed its forecast for US production in 2015 by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.75 million.

Not so fast according to Goldman Sachs, US producers have proven themselves to be resilient. it could go as low as $20[QUOTE]The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016 on further OPEC production growth, resilient non-OPEC supply and slowing demand growth,.......Goldman's base case