How legit is win shares?

[pete's montreux]

Because all I read is how Kevin Love is incapable of affecting an NBA game and he's second in win shares right now with 2.8. LeBron is first with 3.2

[Mr. Jabbar]

A fine example of how ppl needs to watch games and not look at stats. Kobe haters be mad good at doing that sh1t.

[I.R.Beast]

Because all I read is how Kevin Love is incapable of affecting an NBA game and he's second in win shares right now with 2.8. LeBron is first with 3.2

Stats are only relelveant when they support a person's agenda.


Watch games, look at the stats and be sure to apply context to them. I hate advanced stats. they IMO are a failed attempt to capture nuances of the games that only the eyes can measure. Basic stats and eye test is sufficient.

[ThatsGame]

Win shares is a fuzzy kind of stat. It's not as obvious as something like PPG, FGA, FG%, etc.

It's only there to give a general idea of who was most responsible for a win on that particular team.You can't just compare them player vs. player. The Wolves BLOW, and if you look at the stats, Kevin Love is clearing the best player on that team, and is most responsible for giving them a chance to win by getting points and rebounds.

[Kblaze8855]

Hakeem wasnt top 10 in 1995.

28/11/4 regular season 33/10/5 in the playoffs leading his team to back to back rings Hakeem.

That is all.

[Fatal9]

how I hate this stat...

[nathanjizzle]

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Hakeem wasnt top 10 in 1995.

28/11/4 regular season 33/10/5 in the playoffs leading his team to back to back rings Hakeem.

That is all.

Quick and efficient, good post. I used winshares to mess with the Kobe apostles, but in reality it's a completely useless stat.

PER is probably the only adjusted statistic not named eFG% I like.

[Dasher]

Win Shares is a solid stat. Over the course of a career it tends to give an accurate accounting of how important a player was to the teams he played on. Though like all stats it only gives a piece of the puzzle.

[pete's montreux]

I wasn't saying Kevin Love is good because he's second in win shares, I was asking if It's legit.

[Dasher]

Hakeem wasnt top 10 in 1995.

28/11/4 regular season 33/10/5 in the playoffs leading his team to back to back rings Hakeem.

That is all.

Hakeem missed ten games that year. The only outlier in the top 10 of win shares that year are Detlef Shremph and Dana Barros. The Admiral, Shaq Stock & Malone, Scottie, Reggie Miller, Gary Payton, and Clyde Drexler make up the rest of the top 10.

[ShaqAttack3234]

Like all of these formula stats that try to combine all numbers into one, it's useless. Incredibly subjective values given to each area. Win shares may be the worst of them.

Just pure crap. As a follow up to KBlaze's Hakeem example, look at the '95 playoffs.

Hakeem- 33/10/5/3
Clyde Drexler- 21/7/5

Now....their win shares.....

Hakeem- 2.8
Clyde- 3.0



A good rule to go by when using stats, if it takes more than a few seconds to explain the stat, it's useless.

By this point, I have an automatic reaction when I see win shares, which is to tune out whatever that poster says about basketball after using them.

Even worse is that I've seen defensive win shares used.....for the 60's......when there were no defensive stats kept......

[Kblaze8855]

Hakeem missed ten games that year.

He didnt lead his team in win shares in the playoffs either.

Brent Barry had more win shares in 02 than Hakeem did in 11 of his first 14 seasons.

Brad Miller and Nene have more win shares per 48 than Patrick Ewing.

Per 48 Jeff foster is ahead of all of the following people:

Bernard King
Grant Hill
Dave cowens
Chris Mullin
Rasheed Wallace
Bob cousy
Mo Cheeks
Ben Wallace
Glen Rice
Deron Williams
John havlicek
Jason Kidd
James worthy
Tim Hardaway
Chris Webber
Lenny Wilkens
Joe dumars

Not that theres anything wrong with that....

[HurricaneKid]

Its a fine stat. People don't understand what it is or what it does so they whine about it. All is does is breaks down the wins a team had and who was statistically responsible for those wins. If you miss 10 games you get a zero for those games.

The Olajuwon line that was brought up came from a year when they were the 6 seed and he missed a lot of time. Schremf played on a 62 win team. Barros had a ridiculously efficient line.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

[HurricaneKid]

Even worse is that I've seen defensive win shares used.....for the 60's......when there were no defensive stats kept......

Crediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver's book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James in 2008-09 as an example):

Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.
Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.
Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.