Big Market Team Fallacy

[longtime lurker]

if you could clone someone and have the exact same person manage the lakers and wolves, the guy managing the lakers would have more success over time. end of story.

that doesn't mean its impossible to compete as a small market team, it just means its harder. you don't have the spending power or the ability attract free agents. if you sign a bad contract...it hurts a lot more and for a lot longer. same with missing in the draft.

It wasn't that long ago that the Phoenix Suns were in a better position than the Lakers, but their idiotic owner sold off their best chance to become a dynasty and now he's crying for a hard cap and complaining that small market teams can't compete. Even after all that horrible management Phoenix was still in the WCF just last season. So no spending power doesn't matter as an owner that's committed to winning.

[ShawnieMac06]

link?

I was under the impression that the Dallas/Fort Worth market had moved into 5th just ahead of the San Fran/Oakland/San Jose market. That would leave Boston no greater than 7th.

That's the Neilsen market rankings, which measures market size by the amount of households in a given metro area. DFW is 5th in households, followed by San Fran-Oakland-San Jose, and then Boston, Atlanta, Washington, D.C. and Houston rounding out the top 10.

[KevinNYC]

link?

I was under the impression that the Dallas/Fort Worth market had moved into 5th just ahead of the San Fran/Oakland/San Jose market. That would leave Boston no greater than 7th.

Go here

then sort by population. i didn't check out recent the data was.

[DMAVS41]

Since you think there is an advantage in being the Lakers GM, you must also think that the Clippers GM also has the same exact advantage. Is that correct? Basically you are telling me the Lakers advantage is derived from their city, and not their owner's desire to be the best?

Again, there are no absolutes. You have to have an owner willing to spend as well.

It all goes hand in hand. More desirable location/market, more revenue for team...means more money to spend. Better the team is....higher ability to attract free agents looking to win or get paid...etc.

Its all connected....and unless the owners do something to change this trend...its only going to get worse. You don't hear Howard talking about going to the Spurs do you? You hear him talking about the Lakers or other big market teams. Wonder why.

Is it the end all be all? Of course not. Does it matter? Absolutely. But you can keep on thinking that the Twolves or Bucks or Raptors...etc....all have as good of a chance to win as the bigger market teams. LOL at the idea that the Lakers would have vince, tmac, and bosh within a decade and lose them all. Simply wouldn't happen.

[Sarcastic]

Again, there are no absolutes. You have to have an owner willing to spend as well.

It all goes hand in hand. More desirable location/market, more revenue for team...means more money to spend. Better the team is....higher ability to attract free agents looking to win or get paid...etc.

Its all connected....and unless the owners do something to change this trend...its only going to get worse. You don't hear Howard talking about going to the Spurs do you? You hear him talking about the Lakers or other big market teams. Wonder why.

Is it the end all be all? Of course not. Does it matter? Absolutely. But you can keep on thinking that the Twolves or Bucks or Raptors...etc....all have as good of a chance to win as the bigger market teams. LOL at the idea that the Lakers would have vince, tmac, and bosh within a decade and lose them all. Simply wouldn't happen.

With your line of thinking, one could say the Spurs could NEVER EVER win a title. Yet somehow they managed to do it.

[NuggetsFan]

Markets matter. Maybe not as much as some let on but to say it doesn't matter at all is kinda silly. Market determines your owner, owner determines what your willing to pay etc. Same time market doesn't = competent drafting, trading, FA moves. Dwight Howard wanting out of Orlando? Isn't coming to Denver. Carmelo? Didn't just want out of Denver. He wanted to go to a big market. If he would have went anywhere probably could have snagged a better deal from the T-Wolves. Kobe? Didn't he turn down Charlotte because he wanted to go to L.A?.

Drafting is just a massive part of success. Basketball can be dominated individually more than any other sports. SA has that much success because they tanked with Robinson and drafted Tim Duncan who ended up staying for his entire career. Any team with competent FO skills is going to have success if they have Tim Duncan for 15 years.

Success is determined by so many aspects I don't think you can say one doesn't matter. Being in New York or L.A helps. How much, I don't really know. NY proved that it can't do it all for you this decade.

[Sarcastic]

Markets matter. Maybe not as much as some let on but to say it doesn't matter at all is kinda silly. Market determines your owner, owner determines what your willing to pay etc. Same time market doesn't = competent drafting, trading, FA moves. Dwight Howard wanting out of Orlando? Isn't coming to Denver. Carmelo? Didn't just want out of Denver. He wanted to go to a big market. If he would have went anywhere probably could have snagged a better deal from the T-Wolves. Kobe? Didn't he turn down Charlotte because he wanted to go to L.A?.

Drafting is just a massive part of success. Basketball can be dominated individually more than any other sports. SA has that much success because they tanked with Robinson and drafted Tim Duncan who ended up staying for his entire career. Any team with competent FO skills is going to have success if they have Tim Duncan for 15 years.

Success is determined by so many aspects I don't think you can say one doesn't matter. Being in New York or L.A helps. How much, I don't really know. NY proved that it can't do it all for you this decade.

Dwight doesn't want out of Orlando because they are a small market. He wants out because they have shitty management and can't get him any good players to play with. He is torn about leaving. You can tell he likes playing in Orlando, but their outlook is bleak.

Melo wanted to go to NY also because Denver's outlook is bleak, as well as he was born in NY and his wife is from NY. It wasn't like he has been talking about going to NY for the last 5 years, and it's been his lifelong dream. The only reason the NY situation opened up was the Knicks had to TANK for 2 years to clear up cap space for Lebron. Melo wasn't their's nor his first choice.

How come players aren't clamoring to play in Philly, Washington, Houston, LA (Clippers), or Nets? They are all in the top 10 markets in the US. Deron Williams hasn't even agreed to resign with the Nets when they move to Brooklyn. How come? I thought playing in big markets matter so much?

LeBron had the option of playing in NY, LA, Chicago, or Miami this past offseason. He ended up picking Miami which is by far the smallest market of those 4. Market size meant NOTHING to him. He wanted the best chance to win. Miami gave him that, so that is what he chose.

[NuggetsFan]

Dwight doesn't want out of Orlando because they are a small market. He wants out because they have shitty management and can't get him any good players to play with. He is torn about leaving. You can tell he likes playing in Orlando, but their outlook is bleak.

Melo wanted to go to NY also because Denver's outlook is bleak, as well as he was born in NY and his wife is from NY. It wasn't like he has been talking about going to NY for the last 5 years, and it's been his lifelong dream. The only reason the NY situation opened up was the Knicks had to TANK for 2 years to clear up cap space for Lebron. Melo wasn't their's nor his first choice.

How come players aren't clamoring to play in Philly, Washington, Houston, LA (Clippers), or Nets? They are all in the top 10 markets in the US. Deron Williams hasn't even agreed to resign with the Nets when they move to Brooklyn. How come? I thought playing in big markets matter so much?

LeBron had the option of playing in NY, LA, Chicago, or Miami this past offseason. He ended up picking Miami which is by far the smallest market of those 4. Market size meant NOTHING to him. He wanted the best chance to win. Miami gave him that, so that is what he chose.

Dwight might not want out of Orlando. Guarantee if he goes anywhere it'll be to a good market tho. Won't accept a trade to Minny. Won't accept a trade to Sacramento.

Melo's the definition of nitpicking markets. He named L.A Clippers, Houston, Nets, Knicks as choice of where to go. Denver's future wasn't too bleak considering they won more games without him than with him.

LeBron? He went to go play with Wade\Bosh.

I'm not one of those people that thinks market makes all the difference because it doesn't. There's a ton of things that matter more. Such as drafting and handing out contracts(where Orlando shot themselves in the foot). Kidding yourself if you think it has NOTHING to do with it. Shaq went to L.A .. because it was L.A. Kobe preferred L.A over Charlotte. FA? Telling me Roger Mason JR plays for 4m for anyteam?. Telling me Toronto being in Canada has no barring what so ever?.

Certain spots are simply more attractive. In the long run it means nothing if you can't pair that with good drafting and a good FO. You give New York and Minnesota the same drafts\same FO\same everything and you don't think one team being in NY would make a difference?.

[Sarcastic]

Dwight might not want out of Orlando. Guarantee if he goes anywhere it'll be to a good market tho. Won't accept a trade to Minny. Won't accept a trade to Sacramento.

Melo's the definition of nitpicking markets. He named L.A Clippers, Houston, Nets, Knicks as choice of where to go. Denver's future wasn't too bleak considering they won more games without him than with him.

LeBron? He went to go play with Wade\Bosh.

I'm not one of those people that thinks market makes all the difference because it doesn't. There's a ton of things that matter more. Such as drafting and handing out contracts(where Orlando shot themselves in the foot). Kidding yourself if you think it has NOTHING to do with it. Shaq went to L.A .. because it was L.A. Kobe preferred L.A over Charlotte. FA? Telling me Roger Mason JR plays for 4m for anyteam?. Telling me Toronto being in Canada has no barring what so ever?.

Certain spots are simply more attractive. In the long run it means nothing if you can't pair that with good drafting and a good FO. You give New York and Minnesota the same drafts\same FO\same everything and you don't think one team being in NY would make a difference?.

Minnesota and Sacramento are some of the worst managed teams in the league. The Wolves picked back to back point guards in the first round, with LOTTERY PICKS. Can you imagine an NFL team taking 2 quarterbacks with back to back picks?

With Sacratomato, you have 2 jerk off owners that are going bankrupt and may lose the team. Why the hell would he want to go there?

You also have to consider cap space in where players can go. With the talk of Dwight going to the Lakers, it would have to be in a sign&trade with Bynum and Gasol most likely sent over, and Arenas shipped with Dwight. Not too many teams are going to be willing to take Arenas' contract along with Dwight. The Lakers can't just sign him outright. They HAVE to do a trade. Looking at it from Orlando's perspective, what is the best piece they can get in a trade? Bynum has some pretty good potential. It's not as if the Lakers are offering Walton and Fisher.

The Knicks had one of the worst decades ever. No one wanted to go there until they got Donnie Walsh and decided to forgo winning, and just concentrate on cutting contracts. They literally had to tank for 2 years to get in the position they are in. It's not like they just said, "We are NY and can get whoever we want". A lot of hard work went into getting where they are. Most teams just need to tank for 1 season to get a good player in the draft, ie San Antonio. The Knicks needed 2.

[tpols]

Knicks fans dont want to admit that they have an unfair advantage over many other teams in the league.. thats what it comes down to.

[Sarcastic]

Knicks fans dont want to admit that they have an unfair advantage over many other teams in the league.. thats what it comes down to.

How many championships has that advantage given us?

The Clippers have the second best advantage. What have they won with it?

[tpols]

How many championships has that advantage given us?

Just because you didn't take advantage of it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

If my parents had hundreds of thousands of dollars to spend on me to go to college but I ended up being a screwup and not going because i failed out of school, it doesnt mean I didn't have that advantage over many other kids in the first place.

[tpols]

How many championships has that advantage given us?

The Clippers have the second best advantage. What have they won with it?

The Clippers are a second class citizen in LA. The Lakers captured the city first and are the true team of Los Angeles.

[NuggetsFan]

Minnesota and Sacramento are some of the worst managed teams in the league. The Wolves picked back to back point guards in the first round, with LOTTERY PICKS. Can you imagine an NFL team taking 2 quarterbacks with back to back picks?

With Sacratomato, you have 2 jerk off owners that are going bankrupt and may lose the team. Why the hell would he want to go there?

You also have to consider cap space in where players can go. With the talk of Dwight going to the Lakers, it would have to be in a sign&trade with Bynum and Gasol most likely sent over, and Arenas shipped with Dwight. Not too many teams are going to be willing to take Arenas' contract along with Dwight. The Lakers can't just sign him outright. They HAVE to do a trade. Looking at it from Orlando's perspective, what is the best piece they can get in a trade? Bynum has some pretty good potential. It's not as if the Lakers are offering Walton and Fisher.

The Knicks had one of the worst decades ever. No one wanted to go there until they got Donnie Walsh and decided to forgo winning, and just concentrate on cutting contracts. They literally had to tank for 2 years to get in the position they are in. It's not like they just said, "We are NY and can get whoever we want". A lot of hard work went into getting where they are. Most teams just need to tank for 1 season to get a good player in the draft, ie San Antonio. The Knicks needed 2.

I think we kinda agree on the big picture. Draft is the big key to success. Competent FO is what's needed to push you over the limit. I'm just saying Market is gravy. My example would be the Knicks\Melo. Once the Knicks actually got there shit together they signed Amare(like you said wasn't first choice) and than Melo forces a trade. Knicks weren't a groundbreaking team. Denver was more than competent. Didn't matter he listed the teams he wanted to play for witch were all big market teams.

Market is gravy. It means something. It doesn't make or break you but can give you an extra advantage from time to time over the long haul. Raptors you have guy's actually not showing up. L.A? You luck out sometimes with Shaq. Kobe not wanting to go Charlotte etc.

Can you honestly say that Minnesota with the same FO|Owners|Everything would have NO disadvantage against NY? There the exact same just two different area's. It'd have no difference .. what so ever over a 20 year time period?.

You kinda made one of my points with Sac-Town as well. A team like New York, L.A, Chicago would never have an owner that was going bankrupt. They'd never have to deal with there teams moving. Chris Paul? There's no reason why he shouldn't want to go Sacramento. They have young talent, Cousins a potential dominant big man. Yet there turmoil would prevent that. Turmoil that a "big market" franchise would never endure. Proves my entire argument right there for me. Is it a big deal, probably not. At the very least it means something over the long haul and that's all I've suggested. Without drafting\competent FO .. your screwed anyway, anywhere.

[Sarcastic]

Small market teams that made a Finals or Conference Finals in the last decade:
Sacramento, Indiana, Minnesota, Phoenix, Orlando, Cleveland, Denver, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Milwaukee, Utah.

Big market teams that did not make a Finals or Conference Finals in the last decade:
NY, LAC, Washington, Houston. All in the top 7 of US markets.