Originally Posted by Thorpesaurous
First, I really like Rubio. I had seen prior to these olympics, as much as I could find on him, and was glad to see he was being given a bigger role than previously expected on the spanish team. He plays what I consider a beautifull game. I've never been enamored with dunks, or even finishes in general, as much as plays to lead to shots so easy that nothing complicated is possible. In fact, if you can squeeze a ball into a spot so tight that nothing but the most basic simple shot possible can be gotten off, that to me is the highlight of highlights.
Everytime I saw Rubio, the same thing jumped to mind. He had to work on his jumper, and he had to get stronger physically. He's never going to be a plus athlete at the NBA level. But at 6-4, he's got long wings, and he's quicker than he looks, with good defensive instincts, so I figured he'd get by.
However, the more I watch him, the less I believe he's going to be great. I don't actually think he's going to get enough stronger for it to ever not be an issue. I know he's young, and it's not like he's small, he is 6-4, but he just doesn't have a great frame. He's narrow through the shoulders, and in the hips, and usually guys who are thin when there young, if they have broad shoulders and hips, have the room to fill out. As for the jumpshot, he doesn't even have the foundation that I can project real improvement. Derrick Rose wasn't a great shooter this past year, but it was easy to see why people were able to overlook it because he had such a strong base to build from. Rubio still shows a need to get his shot up over his head from range, which is something I work on with kids at the middle school level.
Then I start thinking about the comps thrown around about the guy, and the ones I think of. The league built around iso play, which actually minimizes all the things that make Rubio special. It also hurts what he brings to the table defensively. He needs guys to be constantly moving around him, so he can use his gifts to find the seams that only a handfull of people can find. There are only a few players in the league still like that. Jason Kidd is this type of player, but Kidd, while never an elite athlete, is exceptionally strong for a PG, something I'm not sure Rubio will ever be above average in. Kidd could use his strength to force the issue.
Brent Barry at one time brought a similar wiry build to the game, and probably not the same level of instincts, but he was very natural. He however was a plus shooter and athlete for a while.
Jason Williams had a game like that, but it only worked when he was still good enough to demand the ball. That sort of thing is what make Rubio something of a boom or bust prospect in my eyes, because if he turns out good enough, his skill set will shine, but he'll have a harder time functioning as a perephery player.
The guys with bad jumpers who've made it on the wing are a short list too. And most of them are elite level athletes. Guys in that size range that come to mind are Leandro Barbosa, and while Rubio can push tempo, probably not like that, and finishing may be an issue as well.
The guy who's got a creative type of game like that, minust the jumper, and the plus athleticism ... Jamal Tinsley. That's not exactly the type of guy I'd be dying to put in as a cornerstone. Tinsley is 6-3 by the way, so it's not like the size is that off. Obviously the hope is that Rubio won't completely waste his talents with one of the worst attitudes in the league, and I don't think he's got quite the proclivity to dominate the ball that Tinsley does, but then again he's never played in an iso offense. It's not a total knock, Tinsley at his best was a very good player, and a guy who was great to watch. But under no circumstances did he ever seem like a guy who you take in the top five of a draft. Shaun Livingston also brought some similar stuff to the floor as well, both strengths and weaknesses, but did so at 6-7. Unfortunately he brings little track record to go by, although his slight frame did seem to be a problem, and he was already running into issues with guys playing off him because of his jumper.
So is he overrated. I don't think he's overrated as a basketball player, but I'm beginning to think he's overrated as an NBA prospect. His strengths are simply the exact opposite of what the league focuses on. And his weaknesses are rife for exploitation as well. The two big Ifs about his physical stature and jumper could push him into a different player, but I wouldn't be comfortable enough at this point with either to make me want to take him at three. The league just doesn't go after these types of players like this usually, which makes me wonder if they'll know what to do with him once they get him, and if he'll be thrown under the bus when he can't change the face of a franchised in two years. Every guy drafted in the top five in the past decade was either a big, a decidedly better athlete, or a markedly better shooter, with the exception of Livingston. That seems odd.
I hope he does well, I really think the style he brings to the game is something that's sorely missing in the league. But I'm afraid of what his failure could mean. Sadly, if he were taken at 14, he'd have a 16 assist night, be considered a steal, his shortcomings would brushed aside, and his jersey would be all over playgrounds everywhere the next summer. At three that won't happen.