ESPN East Forecast, 3rd place!

[bokes15]

Cleveland and Chicago at one and two, Toronto at 3 (47-35) and Miami at 6. In all the years i've been on this forum, I don't remember ESPN ever predicting us as a playoff seed. If they did it was probably one of the bottom 2-3 seeds when Bosh was here but 3rd? Wow. Well the East is certainly wide open and a top 3 seed is ours for the taking. Let's see/hope they prove that last year was no fluke!

[Jballer]

It is good news - happy news. Interesting.

There are frankly two pieces to this puzzle.

I think 3rd in the east is based on the current division ranking process for the playoffs. i.e. Toronto will win the Atlantic over Brooklyn, New York, Boston and Philly. I agree with that assessment.

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The 47 -35 is what I am troubled to predict. I have a hard time finding the "statistically likely wins and losses". The Raps conceivably could win 50+ games in the east - the Raps could conceivably win only 42 games and win the Atlantic division.

I think the 50 number is more likely but looking at the east there are still so many open questions.

Pacers - disimproved
Heat - disimproved

Wizards - the same or better with experience - Pierce and Humph ?
Pistons - the same or better with Van Gundy (VG is worth 5 wins)
Knicks - the same or better with Calderon ?
Bulls - the same or better depending on DRose and Gasol chemistry.

Hornets - Improved
Raptors - Improved (depth and rotation i.e. sweet Lou and JJ)
Hawks - Improved ??

I just dunno.

3rd in the east would be a hollow victory if its 42 wins and a 1st round exit.

3rd in the east would be thrilling if its 48 wins and 2 rounds (to 7th game) or better.

[Toni]

I think we can surprise everyone and take one of the top two seeds. Chicago has some new pieces and Rose is always a question mark. I predict some chemistry and defensive issues for Cleveland as well. We have the most consistency to build on our campaign from last season.

[bokes15]

I totally agree about Cleveland Toni. I've seen several places that have called them the odds on favorite to win the championship for the upcoming season. But the thing is, you can put talent on paper, but you can't force chemistry. These are 3 guys that get a lot of touches, were leaders of their respective teams and put up a lot of points. There's definitely going to be a BIG adjustment period for all of them and it's no guarantee that all the pieces fit. We are pretty much a complete team in terms of our rotation and our chemistry with bringing everyone back and adding depth as Jballer said. And you can't automatically count the Bulls as a 2 seed without seeing D.Rose and his durability. So the east is really up for grabs.

[Jballer]

There is a danger in predicting chemistry issues for the Cavs.

I mean people predicted the same for Miami ala the first big 3.

What was their result ? Finals loss ? Pretty darn good result as > 50% of the teams in the league have never seen the finals

I am not saying you are wrong its just the Lbron is so good in so many ways he makes other players around him good as well.

[kmart]

The Raps were a 50 win team after the Rudy Gay trade, so this ranking is deserved. They would've beaten any other team that they could've other than Brooklyn and lost because of match up problems IMO.

As far as Cleveland goes I agree with Bokes. Kyrie, Lebron, and Love all need the ball in their hands to be effective someone is going to be the Chris Bosh of the group. People also fail to remember that Miami's first season wasn't smooth sailing, there was a feeling out process at the beginning, I believe the went 9-8 in their first 17 games.

[Jballer]

The Raps were a 50 win team after the Rudy Gay trade, so this ranking is deserved. They would've beaten any other team that they could've other than Brooklyn and lost because of match up problems IMO.

The problem with using last year as a basis of prediction for this year is you tend to be assuming not much else has changed. That is simply not the case.

[COLOR="Indigo"]I am not saying the ranking is wrong - nor am I saying it is not well deserved[/COLOR].

I just don't have a good handle on what the East really looks like with so much change.

The Raptors were 3 -1 verses Washington last year. This year I hope they are 3 -1 - I think more likely 2 -2 I pray not 1 - 3. Ditto Charlotte / Chicago / Cleveland / Detroit.

In breaking down the schedule the Raps face each Eastern Team 4 times ; Each Western Team 2 times. They should rack up a better record in the Atlantic for sure (Boston / Philly / Nets / Knicks even) and keep pace with the rest of the east in wins losses.

In the West with travel you "hope" they were as strong as last year but there are 20 games on the road against really good teams.

I have not yet looked at the new schedule but I would hate to see Boston / Philly Games sandwitched between Western Road trips. Let down games happen especially when the team is tired or injured.

So deserved yes. Accurate ? I still think it is way to early to be that optimistic.

There would be nothing wrong with 40+ wins and 2 rounds or more of playoffs.