Will Outperform
Chris Bosh | F/C | Miami Heat
SCHOENE projections: 16.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 4.5 wins above replacement player
SCHOENE projects Bosh's scoring average to remain the same as 2013-14 and his rebounding average to improve slightly from last season's 6.6 mark. Given the extra possessions floating around after LeBron James took his talents to Cleveland, that actually means a major decline for Bosh. Of the 50 players SCHOENE considers most similar to Bosh, 74 percent saw their performance drop off during their age-30 season. However, Bosh is more talented than most of the peers to whom he's being compared, which should help him bounce back in a larger role -- maybe not to the 24.0 PPG he averaged his final season in Toronto but at least to the 18-plus he averaged during his first two seasons with the Heat.
Mike Conley, PG | Marc Gasol, C | Zach Randolph, PF | Memphis Grizzlies
SCHOENE projections (Conley): 15.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 6.0 APG, 8.9 WARP
SCHOENE projections (Gasol): 13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 6.0 WARP
SCHOENE projections (Randolph): 15.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 3.6 WARP
There must be something in the waters of the Mississippi. SCHOENE is pessimistic about all three of the Grizzlies' stars, projecting at least a 64 percent chance they are unable to match last season's performance. Randolph skepticism is understandable, given his age (33). However, since he relies so little on his athleticism, his performance has leveled off over the past three seasons. Gasol won't be 30 until January and Conley just turned 27, so both are unlikely to be noticeably different players this season.
Andre Drummond | C | Detroit Pistons
SCHOENE projections: 14.2 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, 13.4 WARP
Drummond is basically projected to duplicate his 2013-14 stats, with slightly more scoring and slightly less rebounding, and on one level that makes sense. He's not likely to improve his high-percentage finishing or league-leading rebound rate. Still, I think Drummond could be even more effective in Stan Van Gundy's system. Improved spacing should give Drummond more room to operate down low, and Van Gundy knows how to develop an athletic but unpolished big man into a go-to threat, having done so with Dwight Howard.
Terrence Jones | PF | Houston Rockets
SCHOENE projections: 12.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 5.7 WARP
Though Jones is just 22, similar players at the same age were no more likely to improve the following season than not. Like Drummond, Jones' biggest areas for development won't be reflected in the box score. But Jones could step into a larger role too, with Trevor Ariza unlikely to use quite as many possessions as the departed Chandler Parsons. If Jones is consistent, he could emerge as the Rockets' third option on offense.
Jonas Valanciunas | C | Toronto Raptors
SCHOENE projections: 10.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.3 WARP
So far during his brief NBA career, Valanciunas has rated better by the eye test than advanced stats. SCHOENE doesn't project that changing; in fact, 64 percent of similar players performed worse the following season. That's because Valanciunas is being compared to too many overachieving marginal talents. With ample skills that made him a lottery pick, Valanciunas doesn't belong. He should take a solid step forward.