West conf finals Lakers-Spurs pre-series analysis

[elementally morale]

Copy and paste from the other thread:

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Kobe and Manu? That's great.

I was a Manu fan from the get-go. Strangest moves in the NBA but effective and joyful to watch. I'm beginning to like Parker whom I couldn't stand a few years back. I guess adding that jumper was nice after all. Duncan is good, although I still think he is way overrated on a historical level. Better than Shaq and Hakeem my ass. Kobe is Kobe.

Watch for Odom and Manu in this series. The X-factors for each team. Whichever of them steps up his team should prevail. SA has the advantage at the 1 and 5 (I consider Duncan a 5 here), LA has a clear advantage at the 2 and 4 (and I consider Odom a 4 here), and the rest is pretty even (bench, SF and coaching).

Should be a good one.

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Well, I know what I'm gonna receive for this one, but I'll say it nevertheless.

While I agree that Duncan is a top15 player all time, much of it has to do with winning so much in my eyes. He utilizes his strenghts very well and he was also lucky to have been picked up by the Spurs. (Who are even more lucky, BTW.)

As an individual player, I don't have Duncan above David Robinson (whom I liked) or even Karl Malone (whom I alway hated). Not a chance Duncan was/is better than Charles Barkley. And he was/is nowhere near Hakeem. He is a very good player in an ideal situation. Top15? Yeah, I guess so. I can't make his accomplishments go away.

But as a basketball player... still very good but not among the best ones to me. BTW, I have nothing against him. Almost impossible to hate the guy. He is the NBA's Pete Sampras. Not very exciting but almost perfect. But to me he lacks that *something* a McEnroe or a Becker had. Or Hakeem.

Career wise he is top15. He simply won too much (and he may actually go on and win some more...). But as a player, well... not top15. Still very good. But misses that extra *something*. IT, as they say.

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Originally Posted by Glove_20
What is Duncan really really good at? That's the "It" Duncan is missing.


The bank shot and the funny faces after comitting an obvious foul. Duncan is the king of funny faces. I actually enjoy watching his facial expressions. Makes me laugh a lot of the time.

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Oh, and as for my prediction... I've already made it in another thread but since this seems to be the official one, I'll just repeat.

Both teams will win a game on the road. If it's either of the first two games San Antonio will win in 6. If LA takes both their first two games I can see them winning in 7.

[eltonrosas]

Spurs 4-2

lakers are still too weak. Just barely beat Utah, and they match up worst against the Spurs.

I hate them both, but Spurs will win.

[jan803]

Spurs 4-2

lakers are still too weak. Just barely beat Utah, and they match up worst against the Spurs.

I hate them both, but Spurs will win.

uh, the lakers and pistons were the only two teams to win an away game in the second round. that hardly constitutes, 'barely' beating anyone.

utah's home record was impressive but we're the only team to beat them twice at energy solutions.

if anything the spurs might be a bit weaker having had played 7 grueling games while the lakers have had a chance to heal injuries.

the worst thing they've dealt with is fighting over who pays for dinner.

haha, kobe's been losing those battles. being mvp has had its price.

i don't believe this...read what mvp cost these days:

kobe finds the right time to give

[the.powerhouse]

I got the feeling the Lakers are going to win this one. Kobe has been waiting for this moment far too long, and the Gasol - Duncan matchup is a lot closer than people think. Fisher had to deal with Williams the round before. You can't tell me Parker is a tougher matchup. Plus over the years he has dealt with Parker often.

And lets not forget the fact that David Stern handed out those spy ear plugs to his referees so he can stay in touch with them throughout the game, and remind them of how much revenue is at stake with the up and coming Celtics - Lakers final.

[-NB-]

Mains factors IMHO will be age and stamina.

All Spurs players age are 30 or more (except T.Parker and M.Bonner) whereas Lakers players - less than 30 (except I.Newble). So 4-5 years difference will show in games. SAS will capitulate before last minutes in some games, because they will want to save their leaders for next games. In my opinion, Spurs will expect play 6-7 games and set their leaders minutes only for 4 games in which they will expect win. The expierence and players from the bench won't play the main role in this series.

The series from SAS side:
Game 1: Lakers ~+20, SAS leaders take an extra rest time
Game 2: Spurs ~+5, surprise for Lakers
Game 3: Spurs +10 again
Game 4: Spurs +2 after OT:) Lakers are in panic
Game 5: Lakers +20, because they are angry and SAS leaders play only ~30 minutes
Game 6: Spurs +10

The series from LAL side:
Game 1: Lakers ~+20, they show who are better
Game 2: Lakers +10, they can't make mistakes at home
Game 3: Spurs +20, Lakers leaders hame a rest
Game 4: Lakers + 10, stamina is better
Game 5: Lakers +5, maybe we have new NBA champions? :)


In this series I root for Lakers :)

[MaxFly]

lol Basically.

I find it another stroke of Laker luck that they'll be getting Ariza back juuuuust when they actually need him.

Wasn't Ariza supposed to be back sooner?

[elementally morale]

^ The managing minutes part was interesting.

[~LA's fine$t~]

I find it another stroke of Laker luck that they'll be getting Ariza back juuuuust when they actually need him

So, Lakers being the ONLY team missing a starter out of the remaining teams is considered luck to you?

It's funny picking on this guy, he's such an easy target with his endless moronic statements.

[dirkdiggler41]

I have to go with Spurs on this one

[niko]

Every road game for the Spurs is an adventure, and against the Suns, even the home games were close. If this series is similar, the Lakers will win,because they are a much better close out team than the Hornets are. Remember Jazz are equal to the Hornets, if not very close, and the lakers almost got Game 4, and totally shut them out in Game 6. The Spurs in both those situations, absolutely were awful.

Lakers in 6. Nothign I've seen so far in the playoffs tells me the Spurs are better than the Lakers.

[glidedrxlr22]

Congrats to the Spurs. I'm looking forward to a Spurs vs Celtics Final. Oh yeah, by the way, Spurs over Lakers in 6.

[ukplayer4]

i have to say i think the spurs will loose to la, theres mismatches all over, i just think the lakers execute offensivly so much better right now, the spurs have really struggled for long periods in games. both teams will have trouble guarding key players and hopefully that will make for a high scoring series but i just dont think the spurs will be able to keep up offensivly. i love to watch the spurs(i know i am one of the few) and i think it is a great shame every single person hates them and is totally against them cause they play the purest team basketball of any team, by quite a way. at this stage they are pretty old, slow and give up athleticism to almost every team in the league.... in that sense they are a big underdog going into this series, well they are anyway.....

if the spurs do manage to beat la it will be a far greater achievment then vice versa, i mean it is a miricle they got past new orleans, after watching the first few games who thought the spurs would be able to make the adjusments and beat a far quicker more athletic hornet team that were running rings around them.

the spurs are massive underdogs, they are old, slow and hated by everyone because they play the game it is meant to be played(boring to some). if duncan brings his a game this should be an epic series.

[TMT]

I think the most key matchup in this series is going to be Fisher - Parker. We know Fisher is bigger and will be able to keep Parker in front of him. But say on the fast break, is Fisher going to be fast enough to keep up with Parker?

The other matchup is going to be Duncan/Thomas/Oberto - Gasol. I see Thomas guarding Gasol for the most part, of course because the Spurs need to keep Duncan out of foul trouble and Thomas is the biggest guy and I see him having the most success guarding Gasol. Oberto will be up against him once in a while but the real issue is going to be who is going to step up and guard this guy.

[ihatetimthomas]

Lakers match up well against them. There is not one player who will be able to defend Odom. He is the key. I expect him to have a huge series and be the Lakers best player this series. He will live and die by him bc he will receive one on one coverage and he is too quick off the dribble for Duncan and Oberto. I want him to be aggressive this series.

Parker will go off, just need to contain the others. Keep Ginobili and Duncan in check and if Parker goes off so be it. There is no one that can stop him anyways. Parker will have a big series.

Lakers have fresh legs, and I think that will be a factor. Spurs just went through a long 7-game series, Lakers have been rested. Fatigue will set in for the Spurs. I do expect the Lakers to come out rusty the 1st quarter, but that will pass.

So that leaves Kobe to defend Ginobili and Gasol/Turiaf/Mbenga on Duncan. We have a lot of bodies to throw at him. Gasol will not be able to control Duncan, but he can do a decent job. I hear Ariza will play so that will help defensively.

I see Lakers in 6. They have played very well and are much fresher. Should be a very competitive series

[gts]

I think the most key matchup in this series is going to be Fisher - Parker. We know Fisher is bigger and will be able to keep Parker in front of him. But say on the fast break, is Fisher going to be fast enough to keep up with Parker?

The other matchup is going to be Duncan/Thomas/Oberto - Gasol. I see Thomas guarding Gasol for the most part, of course because the Spurs need to keep Duncan out of foul trouble and Thomas is the biggest guy and I see him having the most success guarding Gasol. Oberto will be up against him once in a while but the real issue is going to be who is going to step up and guard this guy.

good questions, you forgot odom in there, odom will command somebody's attention, he and gasol have proven to be a great combination working the paint... and they both play equally well with turiaf so at anyone time on the floor you have a combination of odom gasol or turiaf on the floor. i don't actually see the spurs with a clearcut answer to lamar.

fish has had AI and D williams to deal with so far and has come out well, his biggest asset is he doesn't have to score, he can devote himself to the defensive end and take his shots in the flow of the game. parker is a bit different in his style of play likes to get out and run, so the lakers will need to get rebounds and protect the ball to keep parker from running the floor. it will be interesting to see how the two match up.