Laker Free Throw Differential

[Duffy Pratt]

Through 66 games.

Lakers have had more free throws than opponents in 56 of the 66.

5 or more FTA differntial: Lakers 38 games, Opp. 5
That’s basically like spotting the Lakers a 4 point handicap in half of their games. No big deal?

10 or more: Lakers 19, Opp 4.

15 or more: Lakers 7, Opp 1.

20 or more!!!: Lakers 3, Opp 0.

In 14 of the Lakers wins (39%), the Lakers shot more free throw than the margin of victory. Compared to 5 of their losses where the opponents did the same. In 11 of those 14, they made more FTs than the margin of victory.


Here’s the thing, even if you somehow believe that this is not the result of bias, come playoff time the refs will swallow their whistles and this advantage diminishes or disappears. If it doesn’t, it tends to raise eyebrows and is a bad look for the league.

[SATAN]

You have to look at it on a game by game basis imo. There's been plenty of games where they weren't getting calls either against teams that play less physical.

[Baller234]

I need to see the numbers compared to the rest of the league.

If no other team comes close, then maybe you can make an argument that something fishy is going on.

[Duffy Pratt]

I need to see the numbers compared to the rest of the league.

If no other team comes close, then maybe you can make an argument that something fishy is going on.

First, you realize that differential has to balance out? Thus, the rest of the league can’t be comparable, but some teams might be. It takes a while to go through all the games, but if you pick a team you think should have this kind of advantage, I will do the comparison.

[FKAri]

They're 6th in terms of overall FTA:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/whi...me-this-season

The Magic and the Hawks seem surprisingly high. Surprised the Nuggets are 3rd from the bottom.


I think THIS is the stat OP is talking about tho which does seem anomalous but I suspect it will end up looking like the above list once the season is done.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=w...eason+per+game

[Duffy Pratt]

They're 6th in terms of overall FTA:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/whi...me-this-season

The Magic and the Hawks seem surprisingly high. Surprised the Nuggets are 3rd from the bottom.


I think THIS is the stat OP is talking about tho which does seem anomalous but I suspect it will end up looking like the above list once the season is done.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=w...eason+per+game

That’s the base stat. The Lakers are pretty extreme outliers. I was interested in looking at the games where the FTA differential is greater than the final score difference. Turns out it’s in 14 of their wins. That’s a pretty stark advantage.

[ImKobe]

Lakers are last in 3PA. Makes sense they get more FTs when they play closer to the basket, no? They're also 28th in opponent 3PT attempts (meaning 3rd most opponent 3PA) and with AD on defense a lot of teams would not be incentivized to attack the paint as much. It adds up.

[90sgoat]

When you sign Lebron, you don't just get one guy, you get four.

[Duffy Pratt]

Lakers are last in 3PA. Makes sense they get more FTs when they play closer to the basket, no? They're also 28th in opponent 3PT attempts (meaning 3rd most opponent 3PA) and with AD on defense a lot of teams would not be incentivized to attack the paint as much. It adds up.

New Orleans takes 2 more threes per game (ranked 23rd), their opponents take one more three per game than the Laker’s opponents. So on your theory, they should be pretty comparable, right? After all “it adds up.”

Lakers have had 366 more FTAs than their opponents, which is 50% higher than the next ranked team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have 122 more FTA’s than their opponents, which is 1/3rd of what the Lakers have. So the Lakers get an extra four FTAs per game in differential over the Pelicans because they shoot 2 fewer threes??? (Even though their opponents take one more three per game.). Try again.

[beasted]

Love the statistical deep dive. Hearing crickets from the trolls though.

[Duffy Pratt]

To add a little more to the Laker/Pelican comparison. You would expect a team that drives more to the basket to get more FTAs. The Pelicans drive 10 more times per game than the Lakers.

[iamgine]

Through 66 games.

Lakers have had more free throws than opponents in 56 of the 66.

5 or more FTA differntial: Lakers 38 games, Opp. 5
That’s basically like spotting the Lakers a 4 point handicap in half of their games. No big deal?

10 or more: Lakers 19, Opp 4.

15 or more: Lakers 7, Opp 1.

20 or more!!!: Lakers 3, Opp 0.

In 14 of the Lakers wins (39%), the Lakers shot more free throw than the margin of victory. Compared to 5 of their losses where the opponents did the same. In 11 of those 14, they made more FTs than the margin of victory.


Here’s the thing, even if you somehow believe that this is not the result of bias, come playoff time the refs will swallow their whistles and this advantage diminishes or disappears. If it doesn’t, it tends to raise eyebrows and is a bad look for the league.

Well Lakers are #1 in not fouling. And they are last in 3pt attempt.

Naturally this leads to plenty of FT for them and not much for the opponent.

[beasted]

Well Lakers are #1 in not fouling. And they are last in 3pt attempt.

Naturally this leads to plenty of FT for them and not much for the opponent.

Did you realize you've simply restated observations that the OP has already stated in this thread in the first place. Do you care to offer any opinions as to why the Lakers are such an anomaly?

[iamgine]

Did you realize you've simply restated observations that the OP has already stated in this thread in the first place. Do you care to offer any opinions as to why the Lakers are such an anomaly?

They don't foul and they don't shoot much threes? Pretty simple if you watch games.

[beasted]

They don't foul and they don't shoot much threes? Pretty simple if you watch games.

I'm not trying to troll, but if their free throw differential is the highest wouldn't that INHERENTLY mean that they are fouling much less than their opponents? You've restated the OPs entire point by rephrasing it with new words, yet you're framing it as a reason.

To make an analogy:
OP: Team X has the highest point differential in the league
You: That's because typically opponents score less than them.