Gotterdammerung’s 2023-24 NBA Blatherings

[Gotterdammerung]

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks: By any metric the Bucks will be the best in the East, and particularly for the following reasons: they have the best all-around player, high scoring guard who’s a good passer & excellent 2-way wing player, and a first-class center who can score & defend, and a deep cast. They’ve been criticized for winning only one title. Since LBJ left the Cavaliers in 2018, only two East conference teams won the title: Raptors in 2019 & the Bucks in 2021. The Bucks still have one more title than the much hyped Celtics, Sixers & the Heat have combined in the last 5 years anyway.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best all around player in the league, and is now entering his prime at 28 despite being a 10 year NBA veteran. While Jokic is more dominant offensively as a scorer and a passer, Antetokounmpo is a much better defender. The Bucks traded Holiday for Damon Lillard, who’s clearly the more potent offensive player, but Holiday’s defense and toughness will be missed. Besides Dame, the Greek Freak has a powerful roster built around him in Middleton & Lopez and a deep cast. If Giannis stays healthy, and has a decent roster, he will continue to win more titles and be the best guy of the 2020s.

2. Boston Celtics: Despite not winning a title, the Celtics have been the most consistently excellent team in the East since 2017, appearing in the East Conference finals five times in the last 7 seasons, plus one Finals berth. This summer they rebuilt their roster, getting rid of their 2022 Defensive Player of the Year in Smart, who provided grit, toughness, and intensity on defense, and added Kristap Porzingis, an injury-prone 7-3 power forward with very solid stats. If he stays healthy and is deployed optimally, he will be unleashed. They also obtained Jrue Holiday, an All-Star, All-Defensive Team who will bring value at both ends of the floor and a model teammate. The changes to the roster added size and versatility at the cost of depth, but they remain Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s team. As long they continue to play at All-NBA levels, the Celts remain title contenders. Their top six rotation in Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday, Horford, and Derrick White is the best in the league.

3. Philadelphia Sixers: It’s beginning to look like the Sixers cannot win with the Beard, nor will they win with whatever junk Morey may end up with in exchange of someone who has an incredibly over-inflated sense of his market value. Embiid won the MVP last year, but he shrank when the lights were at their brightest – he scored 15 points on 5-18 shooting in Game 7 vs the Celtics. He is great but he has not proven to be the best player on a team that makes a deep playoff run. Brand new Coach Nurse has the impossible task of turning a toxic combination into a title contender. But with the assclown Morey running the office, Embiid as the Incredible Shrinking Man, and the Beard as the Court Jester, I doubt it.

4. New York Knicks: The Knicks had a great year last season. They posted their best winning percentage since 2012-13 and they won a playoff series for the first time since then. Coach Thibodeau has led the Knicks to the playoffs twice in three years, after they missed the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. Randle hit new scoring highs in 25.1 ppg and led the team in rebounding and was second with assists. Brunson had an All-Star season with 24.1 ppg and 6.2 apg. Brunson also stepped up in the playoffs (27.8 ppg and 5.6 apg) but Randle fell off (16.6 ppg and 8.3 rpg), and shot 37.8% FG. In order for the Knicks to get past the second round, Randle must play up to expectations. They did shut down the Heat in the playoffs (104.3 ppg at 42.5% FG) but their offense was even worse.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers had their best season since LBJ left, but they landed with a thud in their return to the playoffs (4-1 loss to the Knicks). Mitchell made the All-NBA second team, after hitting career high in scoring (28.3 ppg) but his numbers fell in the playoffs. In his playoff career he has been up and down (32.1% in 2019 playoffs, then 36.3 ppg and 52.9% in 2020), and not won much (2-6 career playoff series). He’s a very good player but he is undersized and inconsistent offensively and not very good defensively. That’s not championship quality as a first option. The Cavaliers were first in points allowed and 7th in defensive FG %, but if they want to climb the standings and get beyond the first round with Mitchell as their best player, Mitchell must become better on defense and include their big guys on offense more than ever. Darius Garland was nice in the regular season, but when both he and Mitchell cratered in the playoffs, nobody else could step up. They added Strus, Niang and Jerome for depth and 3 point shooting but that’s not going to be enough.

6. Miami Heat: Who is the real Miami Heat? The mediocre team of the 82 regular seasons, or the maniacal playoff destroyer from 2022 and 2023? Unfortunately, their two toughest rivals improved themselves in the offseason (Bucks with Lillard and Celtics with Holiday/Porzingis), while they themselves remained flatfooted, if not worse (lost Vincent and Strus).

7. Brooklyn Nets: After getting rid of the Super-Team that Never Was, both Durant’s Suns and Beard’s Sixers lost in the second round, and Kyrie’s Mavericks failed to even qualify for the playoffs. Meanwhile the Nets finished sixth before getting dusted by the Sixers. Mikal Bridges is a throwback player from the 80s who never misses a game, plays hard at both ends of the floor and is zero-drama. He likely will make the All-Star team next year. We don’t know if he can become the best player on a championship team, but there’s no doubt he can be the best guy on a playoff contending team.

8. Indiana Pacers. Might be a reach but the bottom of the East Conference is a wasteland of bad teams. Their rotation players are all at least 27 or younger, excepting for Buddy Hield. Haliburton is now an All-Star, and Myles Turner flourished in the absence of Sabonis. They also added Obi Toppin who will provide electricity and energy. If the Pacers don’t improve on defense, they will fall back in the Draft Lottery for the fourth year in a row. Coach Carlisle will be solid enough to help them improve on defense and finish at .500 this year.

[Gotterdammerung]

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets: Until proven otherwise, the Nuggets are the team to the beat for the title. They lost Brown and Green, but they are role players whose absence is not sufficient to expect regression. The Nuggs have an excellent starting lineup with the Joker who is looking for his third MVP in 4 years. Last year he averaged 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg and 9.8 apg, and was even better in the playoffs (30.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg and 9.5 apg). Murray returned from injury with a solid regular season (20.0 ppg) then exploded in the playoffs (26.1 ppg). Gordon, Porter Jr, Caldwell-Pope all are excellent supporting players. Yes the bench isn’t very stout, but the playoffs shrink the rotation. As long the Nuggets survive the regular season with a healthy starting lineup, they will be a tough out. The difference between this lack of depth and the Suns is that the Nuggets’ starters are younger and healthier, and at this point in their careers, the Joker is better than Durant and is more likely to make things easier for his teammates.

2. Phoenix Suns: When Durant bailed on the Warriors, he only ended up on a top-heavy injury-prone roster without much depth. His attempt to form a Super-Team with Irving & Harden failed. What will be different with Booker and Beal? They will be a high scoring team, sure, but will they stay healthy for 82 games, plus 20 more playoff games? Unlikely. The Suns sacrificed depth, defense, and versatility to acquire Durant, and that resulted in one playoff victory over a crippled Clippers team, and a summary loss to the Nuggets. Nurkic somewhat offsets the loss of Ayton but he is older and more injury-prone. Allen and Little are solid rotation guys, but if one of the stars get hurt, they won’t step up. 50 plus wins, and a second round elimination.

3. Sacramento Kings: After leading the Kings to the third best record in the West, and their best win percentage since 2005, Coach Brown won the Coach of the Year, and the first to win in unanimously. He’s always been a good coach, despite the media’s attempt at sabotaging him. Despite having the reputation of a defensive minded coach, the Kings were first in scoring and second in FG percentage. Their best players are Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. They are young and talented with a great coach, but the Kings must improve defensively to contend for a title. They will make progress eventually.

4. Los Angeles Lakers: After getting swept by the Nuggets, it was obvious to everyone that they needed to improve the roster. The Lakers let Beasley walk, sign 5 free agents (Hayes, Prince, Reddish, Vincent, and Wood), while dumping Bamba, Brown, Gabriel, Harrison, Schroder, and Walker IV. If Wood and Hayes can play effective minutes at center that will enable Anthony Davis to stay at the four spot. However, the Lakers are at their best when AD plays center. Too bad he has only played up to his potential sporadically. Ever since he was effective and dominant in the bubble, he has played in 56 games or less in the last three seasons. He was great in the playoffs (14.1 rpg and 3.1 blocks per, while scoring 22.6 ppg at 52% FG). LBJ has not played in more than 67 games since 2018, but when he is focused and plays hard, he’s still one of the top 5 guys in the league, remarkable for 20 year veteran who will turn 39 this season. IF both LBJ and AD are health and motivated, they will be very good, but they will only be healthy and motivated for part of the season. That is why they will not finish higher than fourth, even tho their current roster is better than last year.

5. Golden State Warriors: the GSW finally woke up and smelled the coffee – their two timelines wasn’t working. Went back to the championship formula by dumping 24 year old Poole and 22 year old Wiseman for 38 year old Chris Paul. Who else has been guilty of leading all-time playoff chokes and collapses than Chris “Small” Paul? The GSW’s decision to bring in Paul is an act of desperation. Luckily Curry remains their heart and soul, and he had another MVP caliber season with 29.4 ppg and 6.3 apg and 6.1 rpg at excellent splits. He will be 36 when the 2024 playoff begins, and he is no longer durable – he played 56 games last year, and hasn’t finished 70 games since 2018. His magnificent 2022 Finals enabled the team to win their 4th title in 8 years, but that seemed more of a last hurrah than anything else.

6. Los Angeles Clippers: the all-hype team with no results. Since acquiring Leonard and George, they’re 3-3 in playoff series. Fairly or unfairly, the new Player Participation Policy is known as the “Kawhi Leonard Rule.” Despite being healthy for a number of games, all that regular season rest did not translate into playoff availability. He is a fantastic player when available, but he is not available enough to lead them to the title. Playoff P continues to be a joke (8-10 playoff series with zero Finals berth). Westbrook will help because he plays hard and rarely skips games. After being unceremoniously dumped by the Lakers, Russ averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games with the clippers. He also stepped up in the playoffs as they lost to the Suns 4-1.

7. Memphis Grizzlies: They were the proverbial team on the rise but Ja Morant’s offcourt antics cost him 25 games. He is their best player, and a potential superstar, so do not be fooled by small sample sizes. While they finished 51-31 in the regular season they were eliminated early by the Lakers. They didn’t have their bigs (Adams and Clarke) which means AD and LBJ had free reign to controlling the boards. When the team becomes more mature (they have Smart to keep them afloat during the first two months) they will return to their rising status.

8. Dallas Mavericks: Forget about Kyrie Irving. Doncic is their best player, and he is coming off an MVP caliber season (32.4 ppg, 8 apg, and 8.6 rpg). He made the All-NBA first team for the fourth season in his five years. For comparison’s sake, Curry has earned 4 All-NBA First teams in his 14 seasons. The Mavs acquired Curry the Younger, Exum, Holmes, and Williams to bolster depth, defense, and 3FG%. But as they are built I can’t see them surviving the first round of the playoffs.

[Im Still Ballin]

Great write-up. Orlando and Oklahoma City are the obvious teams I'd pick to make a surprise appearance in the top 8. They're the ones I'd consider wildcards.

[Gotterdammerung]

Great write-up. Orlando and Oklahoma City are the obvious teams I'd pick to make a surprise appearance in the top 8. They're the ones I'd consider wildcards.

Thanks.

The OKC Thunder are often touted as a dark horse in the Western Conference. With a cache of young talent, the promise is undeniable. Yet, this potential hasn't translated into a winning record, and they haven't clinched a playoff spot so far. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as an elite talent, but for the Thunder to truly contend, they need a combination of good health, a fortified defense, and accelerated growth—both in terms of skills and mindset—from their young core. While I see them as an emerging force, perhaps with a shot at the Play-In tournament, I'm hesitant to rank them in the top six. Their relative inexperience could be their Achilles' heel this season.

As for the Orlando Magic, they too showcase signs of promise. Fresh off his Rookie of the Year win in 2023, Banchero has staked his claim as a potential future All-Star, averaging an impressive 20 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in his inaugural season. Despite his standout performance, the Magic's overall team statistics paint a picture of inconsistency. They ranked 26th in scoring and settled at a middling 15th in points allowed. Until these issues are addressed comprehensively, it's premature to consider them a surefire playoff team.

[ILLsmak]

This dude vetted af. I need to read.

Peace

Seems like happier times these days.

Edit: good bedtime story. I bet both your 8s overperform. Beyond whether i agree with stuff of not, it was a fun read. Rare on here esp with two whole posts. - salute -

-Smak

[iamgine]

I want to see a team without any superstar succeed. The Nets are full of NBA's top role players. It's such a rarity. Would be interesting to see how they perform if Ben Simmons can get his head back.

[Axe]

The Mavs acquired Curry the Younger, Exum, Holmes, and Williams to bolster depth, defense, and 3FG%. But as they are built I can’t see them surviving the first round of the playoffs.

Doubt it. He's said to still remain as the team flopper for the Cs, at least according to a braindead psychopath.

[FultzNationRISE]

I want to see a team without any superstar succeed. The Nets are full of NBA's top role players. It's such a rarity. Would be interesting to see how they perform if Ben Simmons can get his head back.

If a team succeeds, someone on it will be declared a superstar.

Fans understand the game more easily that way.

[bison]

Gotterdammerung regular season and playoff prediction threads always good for a read

[GimmeThat]

I'm guessing the ROY race is giving you some trouble. I'm seeing this draft class being reminicent that of 2009, it's not as guard heavy, but when it comes to wing play, plent of guys that are going to get a rotation spot.

If it turns out the way I predicted, it'll be one of those memorable mid-season blow up session.

[Gruppenführer]

I expect Haliburton to reach a new level of stardom this season.

[elementally morale]

I just wanted to say it's a very nice thread.

[Street Hunger]

Almost ready to express an opinion on these rankings. But feel slightly too early to have a firm reaction yet

[NBAGOAT]

Gobert is back. Minnesota will have an elite defense and make top 8. Memphis has been absolutely killed by injuries so likely out now

[Axe]

Gobert is back. Minnesota will have an elite defense and make top 8. Memphis has been absolutely killed by injuries so likely out now

They're gonna miss adams so badly. They also need morant but they've proven that they can win some amount of games without him. Not sure how they'll do that again rn tho with brooks playing for another team.