Does Deandre Ayton have another level? What's his potential in Portland?

[Im Still Ballin]

He has a skilled scoring game within sixteen feet. Here are his shooting splits by distance over the last three seasons:

Deandre Ayton 2021-2023

0-3 feet: 78.6% FG (38.5% of FGAs)
3-10 feet: 54.9% FG (33.8% of FGAs)
10-16 feet: 49.0% FG (18.5% of FGAs)
16+ feet 2pters: 42.2% FG (6.5% of FGAs)
3pt: 28.6% FG (2.8% of FGAs)

77.3% of his 2PT FGs were assisted. 94.4% of his 3PT FGs were assisted. Average field goal distance = 6.7 feet.

For comparison, here are Joel Embiid's numbers over that three-season stretch:

Joel Embiid 2021-2023

0-3 feet: 77.6% FG (25.2% of FGAs)
3-10 feet: 42.7% FG (20.3% of FGAs)
10-16 feet: 47.3% FG (24.3% of FGAs)
16+ feet 2pters: 47.4% FG (13.1% of FGAs)
3pt: 35.9% FG (17.0% of FGAs)

52.7% of his 2PT FGs were assisted. 81.1% of his 3PT FGs were assisted. Average field goal distance = 11.7 feet.

The obvious differences are the volume of shots taken, the level of self-creation, and the average field goal distance. It's hard to compare the two because they're on different teams and have played different roles. The level of defensive attention faced and shot quality are different.

Do you think Ayton will have a chance to become more of a focal point in Portland? Or do you think his role will remain relatively the same as he tries to fit with Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, and Anfernee Simons? If he does get a larger, more prominent role, what do you think he's capable of?

[GimmeThat]

I don't think the Blazers care, they're simply more interested in shedding the label of big man killers.

which probably has a lot to do with not correlating total reach as a combination of height, wingspan, and vertical

[Axe]

He'll be able to do what he wants in oregon. So he's the one who's going to benefit the most amongst the new guys coming there.

[Im Still Ballin]

He'll be able to do what he wants in oregon. So he's the one who's going to benefit the most coming there.

Maybe his potential is something of a more pick-and-roll-oriented LaMarcus Aldridge. Or a diet Joel Embiid. He could feast with that close-in mid-range game like both those guys did/do. From the free-throw line region.

[Im Still Ballin]

Here are some game highlights from DA's time on the Bahamian national team. Worse competition but a little visual for what he might be capable of in a larger role:

[GimmeThat]

a flat footed DeAndre Jordan

[JohnMax]

He's going to be a low tier star. He showed flashes of it during Suns Finals run.

[Xiao Yao You]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

[Im Still Ballin]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

Based on what I've read, it's not an either-or: they intend to play them together. May work better than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley due to Ayton's strong mid-range shooting and overall scoring advantage.

[Akeem34TheDream]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

Williams do not play most of the time so it is okay.

[GimmeThat]

May work better than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley due to Ayton's strong mid-range shooting and overall scoring advantage.

if anything, it's more like the continuation of Pau/Dwight experiment, I get the Allen/Mobley comparison due to PnR plays, but due to guys like Boris Diaw, someone got to shoot the long ball. especially with those salary figures.

[highwhey]

He's going to be a low tier star. He showed flashes of it during Suns Finals run.

starface, that's when he peaked.

[Xiao Yao You]

star talent not the mentality or heart of one

[highwhey]

OP, ofc he'll have a chance. but i don't think he'll ever be better than 'mid'. he can roll out of bed and put up 18/10 while playing more ps5 than actual basketball practice, ask the suns front office about that. he doesn't want it.

[Im Still Ballin]

OP, ofc he'll have a chance. but i don't think he'll ever be better than 'mid'. he can roll out of bed and put up 18/10 while playing more ps5 than actual basketball practice, ask the suns front office about that. he doesn't want it.

Fair enough. I think he'll average a little more this upcoming season by virtue of having a slightly larger role. I'm thinking 20-22 ppg. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's any better, just that he's getting more shots.