The Lakers need to win 4 of the remaining 4 games to beat the Nuggets

[BallsOut]

That math sus asf. lmao

If Lakers win game 4, then game 5 is must win for the Nuggets. Can't give the Lakers any life or momentum and make the series 3-2. If that's the case, the Lakers would tie the series and in a game 7 it's not 10% chance for the Lakers. It's more like 60% for Lakers considering they have all the momentum and the Nuggets would be shell shocked.

IMO the rest of these games are must wins for the Nuggets, not the Lakers. Lakers playing with house money now. Nothing to lose.

That’s a lot of ifs dawg

[Overdrive]

That math sus asf. lmao

If Lakers win game 4, then game 5 is must win for the Nuggets. Can't give the Lakers any life or momentum and make the series 3-2. If that's the case, the Lakers would tie the series and in a game 7 it's not 10% chance for the Lakers. It's more like 60% for Lakers considering they have all the momentum and the Nuggets would be shell shocked.

IMO the rest of these games are must wins for the Nuggets, not the Lakers. Lakers playing with house money now. Nothing to lose.

You're pitting conditional probabilities againgst non conditional ones, but of course it's "sus" since em just guessed the probabilities.

[elementally morale]

That math sus asf. lmao

If Lakers win game 4, then game 5 is must win for the Nuggets. Can't give the Lakers any life or momentum and make the series 3-2. If that's the case, the Lakers would tie the series and in a game 7 it's not 10% chance for the Lakers. It's more like 60% for Lakers considering they have all the momentum and the Nuggets would be shell shocked.

IMO the rest of these games are must wins for the Nuggets, not the Lakers. Lakers playing with house money now. Nothing to lose.

The math is good. You can select your individual probabilities (using mine or using different ones I put in the game thread) if you think one game does not affect the others. If you think a game does affect the next one, you can simply use a tree of probabilities and calculate tha 'what if' scenarios accordingly.

[elementally morale]

You're pitting conditional probabilities againgst non conditional ones, but of course it's "sus" since em just guessed the probabilities.

I used different ones in the game thread but I kept it simple. In my 'model' (LOL) each game stands on its own and we are going one game at a time. In reality, we should use the 'what if' scenarios. The easiest one to see is this: if Denver wins game 4, you don't need probabilities for the rest of the games. A 'what if' scenario would be: the Lakers winning game 4 while Murray gets injured and is out for the rest of the series. Etc. Anyway, I just wanted to show how the probability is not zero and why 0:149 is not that hard to imagine with some reasonable individual probabilites. If you use 40% and 10%, which are believable, you still come up with a chance of 0.16% in a four game run.

[Overdrive]

I used different ones in the game thread but I kept it simpe. In my 'model' (LOL) each game stands on its on and we are going one game at a time. In reality, we should use the 'what if' scenarios. The easiest one to see is this: if denver wins game 4, you don't need probabilities for the rest of the games. A 'what if' scenario would be: the Lakers winning game 4 while Murray gets injured and os out for the rest of the series. Etc. Anyway, I just wanted to show how the probability is not zero and why 0:149 is not that hard to imagine with some reasonable individual probabilites. If you use 40% and 10%, which are believable, you still come up with a chance of 0.16% in a four game run.

No explanation needed. I gave up quite some time ago, but studied physics aswell for some time. I totally understand how probabilites work. I just pointed out that the other poster used probabilities based on the events before, while you took a look at independent events before they unfold.

[elementally morale]

No explanation needed. I gave up quite some time ago, but studied physics aswell for some time. I totally understand how probabilites work. I just pointed out that the other poster used probabilities based on the events before, while you took a look at independent events before they unfold.

I knew you knew. ;) It was just nice to talk to someone for a while who gets it.

[tpols]

I used different ones in the game thread but I kept it simpe. In my 'model' (LOL) each game stands on its on and we are going one game at a time. In reality, we should use the 'what if' scenarios. The easiest one to see is this: if denver wins game 4, you don't need probabilities for the rest of the games. A 'what if' scenario would be: the Lakers winning game 4 while Murray gets injured and os out for the rest of the series. Etc. Anyway, I just wanted to show how the probability is not zero and why 0:149 is not that hard to imagine with some reasonable individual probabilites. If you use 40% and 10%, which are believable, you still come up with a chance of 0.16% in a four game run.

Nah there's no way the probability is that low.

Tonight is like an 80-90% chance Lakers win at home down like this. They'll have the whistle on their side again and it's in LA and they have some pride.

Game 5 is a coin flip, but if they win that coin flip, all the pressure will shift onto Denver shoulders and LA will have a great chance at winning. They probably have a 20% chance at a comeback. Not 1/10th of 1%.

[Full Court]

Lakers should still be favorites in this series. WAAAAAAYYYY more stacked than the Nuggets. If they can't win four in a row against the weakest top seed team in recent times, then it's nothing short of epic failure.

[elementally morale]

20% is way too much. Imagine this.

The probability they have for each game is 60% (insanely high)

Chance = 0.6^4 = 0.1296 = 12.96%



The probabiliry for home games is 70% and away games 50% (looking even higher)

Game 4: 70%
Game 5: 50%
Game 6: 70%
Game 7: 50%

Chance = 0.7 X 0.5 X 0.7 X 0.5 = (0.7 X 0.5)^2 = 0.1225 = 12.25%


For home games at 80% and road games at 60%

Game 4: 80%
Game 5: 60%
Game 5: 80%
Game 6: 60%

Chance = (0.8 X 0.6)^2 = 23%


Do you really believe tha Lakers have an 80% chance at home and a 60% chance in Denver? Because that's what is should be for the aggregate to be close to 20%

[tpols]

20% is way too much. Imagine this.

The probability they have for each game is 60% (insanely high)

Chance = 0.6^4 = 0.1296 = 12.96%



The probabiliry for home games is 70% and away games 50% (looking even higher)

Game 4: 70%
Game 5: 50%
Game 6: 70%
Game 7: 50%

Chance = 0.7 X 0.5 X 0.7 X 0.5 = (0.7 X 0.5)^2 = 0.1225 = 12.25%


For home games at 80% and road games at 60%

Game 4: 80%
Game 5: 60%
Game 5: 80%
Game 6: 60%

Chance = (0.8 X 0.6)^2 = 23%


Do you really believe tha Lakers have an 80% chance at home and a 60% chance in Denver? Because that's what is should be for the aggregate to be close to 20%

I do believe if LA makes it to Game 6 they'll have a huge chance of winning that at home. And that they have a huge chance at extending the series tonight.

Game 5 is basically the series. If the Nuggets drop that and the series goes 7 the pressure to not drop a 3-0 lead will be tremendous on Denver.

I don't think you're considering momentum in this equation. The longer this series goes on the drastically higher chances they have. We could be sitting here in a week right before a Game 7 where LA is favorites.

Lakers are clearly the more talented team, it's taken Murray to turn into MJ and very hot 3pt shooting for them to even win the last two games. It could be 2-1 or 1-2 right now. Of course since it's 3-0 the Nuggets have put themselves in a great position to win... but it ain't no 99.9% chance like your math originally said. If the Lakers sucked I'd agree with you but they don't and have been in every game.

[elementally morale]

I do believe if LA makes it to Game 6 they'll have a huge chance of winning that at home. And that they have a huge chance at extending the series tonight.

Game 5 is basically the series.

That should be Game 4.

I think the Lakers have a great chance of winning if they make it to game 7. But that's hard.